Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/06/2013

Jackpot 5 12/06/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 33 Low 20.


1st JP5 1 1/16m Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $52,500. ( 3:26)/ 2:26/ 1:26/12:26
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 ( Races 6-7-8) / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Bear's Good Men 12/1   Sophomore colt from the dangerous Baker barn was a game winner at first asking in a sprint with cheaper, but the son of Philanthropist stretches out as possible lone speed in the field on the class rise, and we'll swing for an upset in this first leg of the sequence. Gelded three-year-old was very live in that debut run, and while we're not sure what he beat, he goes for a conditioner at 15% with a maiden winner last time out that is also 12% first time going long. Jockey/trainer combo 22% last 60 days.
13   Iroquois Falls 3/1   Prime Power leader and obvious win contender has been third in three straight at this level since breaking his maiden and the Paul Attard trainee could be the one in this field with minor improvement. Gelded sophomore has been in consistent form since the start of 2013 and while drawn with a very tough post slot for this one, the bay has enough tactical foot to get a decent trip we think, and his late run might make up for a wide voyage if that's the case, with Omar Moreno riding.
8   Molinaro Ft Knight 10/1   Interesting contender could be a nice price in this field and comes off a pair of good efforts, including a sharp maiden win most recently. Dark bay sophomore has a lot of things going for him in a fine form cycle right now as the gelding seems to have figured it out for conditioner Vito Armata. The Ontario-bred moved up to the special weight ranks with fine success last time and is bred to run long, so the stretch out shouldn't pose much of an issue in our view. Barn just 2-for-59 here, but we give this one a look nonetheless with Ramsammy in the pipes.

2nd JP5 7f Clm $12,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $26,400. ( 3:56)/ 2:56/ 1:56/12:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) /.20 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10),.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   It's Candy Time 7/2   In-form daughter of Candy Ride has dusted two fields in succession on this main strip and looms large despite the small class rise on this occasion. Dark bay PA-bred has really taken to this oval since coming here from Presque Isle and couldn't be much sharper for trainer Gary Terrien, 38% at this meeting up to this point. Five-year-old mare gets a nice draw on the rail and could be the one to catch with anything close to a clean break today. Ramsammy stays in the irons.
2   Flower Exchange 3/1   Prime Power second has not been in great form as of late but owns a ton of past success on this oval and the class plunge today could help wake this one up in here. Six-year-old daughter of Exchange Rate is a six-time winner on this Polytrack and still owns good tactical speed for a conditioner struggling at this meeting, as O'Keefe is just 1-for-27. Expect the price on this bay to drift up, giving some value with Emma-Jayne in the silks. Should be forwardly placed.
4   I'm Not Afraid 5/2   Prime Power queen from the barn of Julia Carey had an horrific start last time when breaking from the rail to essentially ruin her chances, but the lass was a nice winner on this oval two back and would be of no surprise in the group. Six-year-old daughter of Maria's Mon has been a strong performer on this oval with nine top two finishes on this course, and we love that the chestnut gets away from the rail and also upgrades to Patrick Husbands. Solid all weather barn gave the lass a recent half mile drill and she should be in a nice stalking position to the top of the lane.
5   Strawberry Scarlet 6/1   Gray filly by D'wildcat is a four-time winner at Woodbine and is a sneaky player with the class drop down a level in this spot. Four-year-old lass was a good second behind a main player in this field two back and we'll forgive her latest effort behind a real sharp winner who ran pretty swiftly for the level. Consistent sort will take up her place near midpack early on and could be a danger in the lane at a price. Chernetz has the assignment.

3rd JP5 5f (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,800. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Ginger Goose 5/2   Woodbine import from the always dangerous barn of Roger Attfield gets a tough post slot but comes off a nice closing run in a turf dash at Woodbine last time and shows an improving Speed number trend that makes the gelding a main player in this cast. Sophomore son of Royal Applause has improved with the addition of blinkers in his last pair and hails from a good barn with both shippers and off of the layoff of this type. Lots to like and a must use with Jeffrey Sanchez riding.
8   All About Yasom 4/1   Doug Potter trainee has run his best two races in turf sprints and could be the one with minor improvement on this day. Bay colt by Max's Pal has been very consistent with six top three finishes from seven starts, and his tactical speed is a big weapon in this cast, especially from a post where the Florida-bred might enjoy a very good trip while close early on. Manny Aguilar will ride the Prime Power second -- barn 20% with a beaten favorite last time.
9   Dedicated to Bob 5/1   'Other' Potter charge might be the pace of the pace and is surely worth including in the case that he shakes free early on. Bay colt by Alke ran big in his lone grassy outing to date when leading late and finishing second after showing big pace, and we love the little freshening this one comes in with while getting in very light with bug pilot Martin Solis. Wouldn't be a surprise with a fast break from the gate.
6   Law Dog 8/1   Son of Unusual Heat has not been that sharp from a pair of runs since joining this barn, but he has proven in the past to be a very dangerous turf sprinter, and he might be an overlay in this field. Bill Hickey pupil had an excuse last time when the race washed off the turf, and his previous run he was dueling between, for a conditioner at a fine 31% third off the layoff and 29% moving dirt to turf. Pedroz Nazario will ride looking for his first turf win.

4th JP5 About 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $30,000 3yo and up, Purse: $30,000. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Red Strike 3/1   Six-year-old is first on BRIS Prime Power and was last seen when third against better at Woodbine in October when rallying late from just off the pace. Son of Smart Strike has won three of his twelve lifetime starts on grass and is from the barn of Malcolm Pierce who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 19% of his starters overall this year. Gelding can be running late with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
2   Cavalero 7/2   Son of 21% turf sire Osidy has won ten of his nineteen lifetime starts on grass and comes off a fourth place finish at Hawthorne in October. Five-year-old will make his first start for trainer Tom Amoss who wins with 22% of his runners on grass and who has won with 23% of his starters since the beginning of the year and five-year-old has some early speed and can be in good position from the start with Robby Albarado in the saddle.
7   Eleven Final Fours 6/1   Gray comes off a win at Hawthorne last month when earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race in his second start after a short break and has won five of twenty starts on turf. Trainer Louie Roussel wins with 18% of runners third time off a layoff and won with two of his first four starters at this meet and son of Smart Strike can be stalking the early leaders under James Graham who won with his last mount for the barn.
4   Cheyenne Pass 4/1   Gelding is first on BRIS Current Class and was last seen when fifth on the sloppy track at Delta Downs over seven furlongs in mid-October. Son of Smart Strike has a record of 9-3-1-0 lifetime on grass and won his one previous start on the Fair Grounds turf for trainer Ron Faucheux who wins with 28% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Four-year-old can be near the front early under Richard Eramia who won with 26% of his rides for the barn in the last two months.
Race Notes: Race Notes: Main Track Selections: #10 Harborplace; #4 Cheyenne Pass; #8 Midnight Heist.

5th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $45,000. 5:24/( 4:24)/ 3:24/ 2:24
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Touch Wood 5/1   Dark bay has not been seen since finishing fourth at Arlington in July after setting the early fractions but is trained by Mike Stidham who wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Daughter of 14% grass sire Smart Strike is a half brother to Grade One winner on turf Dublino and has been working well for Stidham who won with three of his first eleven starters at this meet and three-year-old can be in good position from the start under James Graham who won with 15% of his rides for the barn in the last two months.
3   Lady Bernstein 10/1   BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a fifth place finish on the main track at Woodbine over six furlongs and will make her first start for trainer Ken Hargrave and first start on turf. Filly should take to the surface being by Bernstein whose offspring win 15% of their starts on grass and Hargrave wins with 15% of his runners on turf. Bay has shown early speed and can be a factor from the start with Richard Eramia aboard.
6   Rare Penny 9/2   Three-year-old is out of a stakes winner and Grade Three placed earner of $351K and was last seen when unplaced at Keeneland over nine furlongs in October after showing some early speed in her fourth career start. Chestnut by 13% grass sire Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Al Stall who wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who won with 20% of his starters overall this year and filly can be a contender with Rosie Napravnik riding.
2   More Than a Song 4/1   Daughter of 14% grass sire More Than Ready comes off a fifth place finish on the main track at Churchill last month and finished second in one of her two previous starts on turf. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 15% of his runners going from dirt to gras and won with two of his first eleven starters this meet and dark bay has early speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with David Flores in the saddle.
Race Notes: Race Notes: Main Track Selections: #12 Sawyer's Trustylady; #10 Wake Up; #1 Mingo Mingo.