Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/07/2013

Jackpot 5 12/07/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 81 Low 74.


1st JP5 1 1/8m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 3:30)/ 2:30/ 1:30/12:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Csaba 7/5   Horse to beat loves it here, which might be an understatement, with an 8-for-11 mark at Calder. Phil Gleaves trainee, who bagged this race in easy fashion a year ago at 1-5 odds, comes off a huge win in advance of this and tops the field in Prime Power for a conditioner at 18% with a winner last time out and 21% at this meeting. Versatile sort can be anywhere early on and might also get a real nice pace set up to work with today under Luis Saez. Hard to beat with something close to his top showing.
7   Sr. Quisqueyano 3/1   Prime Power 2nd from the barn of Luis Oliveras dons a fine 9-4-3-1 mark on this oval and comes in with pretty good form, including two stakes wins in his last four tries. Sophomore son of Exclusive Quality is a 7 1/2 lengths stakes winner at this trip on this oval and has the speed to be close from the opening bell. Florida-bred hails from a barn having a nice meeting here at 23%, and is also 25% in graded races, and it's hard to ignore the bullet morning spin in advance of this. Big chance.
5   Valid 4/1   Marcus Vitali charge ran out of his skin last time in the slop at Gulfstream when posting a 110 Speed figure for a daylight score in what was a public workout, and the dark bay gelding gets a long look right back today. Three-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro still needs to prove he's a stakes horse of this caliber, but we surely liked what we saw in his second try for this barn and expect him to try and lead this field all the way around the oval. This field should have some pace in it, and while he could get cooked in a duel early, he's still worth a play in this sequence.

2nd JP5 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Strathnaver 6/1   Top pick from the barn of Graham Motion has a touch of class to her and is not just a marathon type, proven by her stakes win at 1 1/16 miles two back. Four-year-old filly by Oasis Dream is 3-for-6 since arriving in the U. S. and she should be fit after running fourth at twelve panels last time against a few good ones in New York, in just her second outing since the summer. We envision this lass getting a favorable pace scenario to work with and will side here Alan Garcia in the pipes.
2   Parranda 8/1   Four-year-old daughter of English Channel has never been better and comes in with a pair of stakes wins in succession on the lawn at Gulfstream Park. Rodolofo Garcia trainee is in a peak form cycle and gets on this turf where she shows a win and a pair of placings from four tries, and is proven capable on firm or 'good' turf, giving her flexibility in here to match her versatile running style. We know this is a class jump, but the rail is fine and the Prime Power queen might have a nice trip after saving ground early at a nice price. Gabe Saez rides.
12   Naples Bay 7/2   Dark bay daughter of Giant's Causeway gets a tough post out wide but is more than capable on her best days and we can't ignore her with Joe Bravo along to ride. Five-year-old mare was a nice second in this race a year back to a solid mare and comes in this spot searching for her first win since last fall, for an outfit at 24% with shippers. The dark bay does have early foot that should help her secure a trip that is reasonable, and if well placed at the top of the lane, she will be a menacing figure.
3   Awesome Flower 10/1   Multiple stakes queen was a solid third on the dirt at Churchill last time in the Chilukki S. (G3), and the Mike Maker charge was a fine allowance winner over a decent field the last time she raced on the weeds. Chestnut daughter of Flower Alley is consistent with five wins in her last 10, and while not proven on grass with this type, the four-year-old has form and a turn of foot, and figures to be a nice number for a most dangerous barn. Castanon will be in the irons.

3rd JP5 About 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $12,500 3yo and up, Purse: $41,000. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Rocket to the Sky 4/1   Gelding is first on BRIS Prime Power and was last seen when third at Louisiana Downs in mid-August when reclaimed by trainer Jonas Gibson. Son of Lone Star Sky has a lifetime record of 5-2-2-1 on grass and Gibson wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and with 22% of his starters first time off the claim. Five-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start stalking the early leaders with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
12   Tiger Run 7/2   Three-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when second in a stakes over the course and distance to the talented runner String King in November and now has a record of 6-2-2-1 lifetime on turf. Son of Yonaguska is from the barn of Gary Scherer who wins with 11% of his runners on grass and who has won with 14% of his starters this year and, with early speed, dark bay can be on or near the lead early with Brian Hernandez retaining the mount.
4   Up and Out of Site 9/2   Dark bay is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3 and earned top ranking on Late Pace Last Race when third over seven and a half furlongs at Evangeline Downs in late August. Son of Pine Bluff has won five of his eleven starts on the Fair Grounds turf course and will make his first start for trainer Norman Miller who has won with two of his sixteen starters this year. Eight-year-old can be stalking the early leaders with Leandro Goncalves in the irons.
2   Eighth At Citypark 8/1   Seven-year-old has hit the board in all three of his starts on the Fair Grounds turf course and was last seen when unplaced at Delta Downs in early November when making his first start after a three month break. Son of Zarbyev is from the barn of Sam Breaux who wins with 12% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 12% switching from dirt to turf and gelding can be running late but often finds one or two better.
Race Notes: Race Notes: Main Track Selections: #15 Hopeful Nation; #9 Rocket to the Sky; #16 Ryland T.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 2yo, Purse: $125,000. ( 4:26)/ 3:26/ 2:26/ 1:26
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta /.20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),.20 Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Asserting Bear 2/1   Reade Baker trainee was a sharp winner of the Coronation Futurity last time in his main track debut here and we'll come back with this son of Bear's Kid today. Bay colt was in the mix early last time and came home really well we thought, getting his final furlong in :12 3/5, and the colt has improved his Speed number in each lifetime start as surely a developing sort. Morning line choice owns the Prime Power edge for a conditioner at 19% with a winner last time out, and we figure the in form contender to be very tough in this one.
6   Iron Wolf 5/1   Forst the King S. third has a lot of room for improvement and we think he is a must use in this field, second time out since the summer. A fine debut winner in June, the son of Marcavelly was a bit rusty but still ran big last time and could even improve first time going long, though the Parente barn is 0-for-13 in that category. May foal has spun a pair of morning bullets leading up to this and will be in the mix early with Moran in the silks.
8   Spin the King 6/1   Bryan Lynch trainee didn't fire his best shot last time but the son of Giant Gizmo had fine form prior to that and surely gets consideration in this field as a possible overlay of sorts. Stakes winner had been first or second in each lifetime run prior to his last, and while bred to sprint, his class might help overcome his breeding, especially if he gets a good trip on or near the pace. We like the pair of morning drills in advance of this and will use the juvenile with Olguin riding.
7   Spadina Road 4/1   Dark bay gelding by Where's the Ring ran a big one in advance of this when a clear second, and we love the stretch out for this Robert Tiller trainee in here. February foal is proven his worth at this level most recently with a pair of stakes placings, and the running style really suggests that he will improve trying two turns for the first time, for an outfit at 13% in that category.

5th JP5 1m MdnClm $12,500 3&4&5yo's, Purse: $10,500. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Starship Liberty 9/5   Prime Power leader made a big late run last time to just miss in second, and a repeat of that will find this one very hard to hold off in the lane under Henry. Leon Minott trainee has been in the top four in six straight since removing the blinkers he wore at first asking, and in a field that is so weak, this form stands out in a big way. Kin to a winner from one to race, the gelding goes for a barn at 33% with a beaten favorite last time and has to be considered.
7   Cum Laude 4/1   Prime Power second goes for a barn very cold at this meeting at just 4%, though the son of Magna Graduate has run one or two that could get the job done here. First foal out of this dam has very good gate speed in a field lacking it and he could get very brave if left alone early on under top pilot Manny Cruz, who marks as a big rider upgrade. Four times third on this oval, we will toss in the pace of the race for sure.
8   Giddy Up Amigo 8/1   Manny Estevez trainee had a nice patch of form in the summer and will be a player in this field if he can find that form right now. Sophomore son of Zanjero is kin to a trio of winners from four to have run, and we like the layoff after a failed pair of runs, one on the lawn at Gulfstream. The bay can run well here and does show a pair of useful morning moves, so he's on the ticket to close out this sequence.