Jackpot 5 Analysis 12/08/2013

Jackpot 5 12/08/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $16,000 3yo and up, Purse: $12,300. ( 3:30)/ 2:30/ 1:30/12:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Bluegrass Bull 3/1   Five-year-old son of Bluegrass Cat has been first or second in his last four runs against allowance foes and rates a big chance in this one for trainer Tim Ice. Kentucky-bred dark bay was a winner in his lone prior run on this turf oval and got a little breather leading up to this one for an outfit that can get them ready. We expect the win player to be forwardly placed just a touch in this field and gearing up for the stretch run under Bocachica. Lots to like.
2   Tom Kitten 4/1   Six-year-old son of Kitten's Joy dons a solid 5-2-1-1 mark on this lawn and could peak today third time out since the summer. Marcus Vitali trainee has run in a pair of races off the turf in advance of this which might skew this one's turf ability some, and the gelding might be a bit of an overlay in this spot for a trainer who is going well at 25% for this meeting. Stalker will likely be near midpack early under Rispoloi, 35% for this outfit last 60 days.
1   Ocean Seven 5/1   Prime Power 3rd gets a nice draw on the rail and rates a big chance in the first leg of this sequence. Steve Borunda trainee has not been in great current form, but has also faced stakes foes in two of his last three, and the six-year-old was a back to back winner in the allowance ranks a little while back, proving capable at this condition. Late runner goes for a conditioner at 25% going dirt to turf and should be saving ground to the top of the lane under Monterrey.
4   Sweeping Victory 6/1   Son of Orchard Park has yet to break through on the lawn from just a few tries, but the Florida-bred has a nice pedigree to handle this oval and he's been capable for sure, with wins in two of his last four. Javier Negrete trainee has been going well with improving Speed numbers since joining the barn and also owns the early foot to be in the hunt from the start in a field without a slew of pace signed on. The bay colt is peaking in coming off of lifetime best figures in his last two, and we'd prefer to have him on the ticket at a price.

2nd JP5 5 1/2f MdnClm $12,500 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,500. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Maddie O'S Prize 3/1   Top play from the always dangerous barn of William White made a nice move into the lane before being dusted by a fine winner when second last time, and we expect the three-year-old miss to roll by this group late and graduate. Daughter of Graeme Hall is the first out of a winning dam and we love that she rated some and closed last time, as that tactic could be the winning one in a field like this full of early types. Prime Power leader goes for a conditioner thriving at 29% at Calder, and she gets in light with Gonzales.
11   Gottcha Back 12/1   Second timer showed some tactical foot before being dusted in the lane ion with a lot better at the special weight level, and we will give the filly a chance at a price on this occasion. First foal out of a winning dam goes for Rohan Crichton who is 2-for-2 at the maiden claiming level and 14% at the meeting, and we like the move to get Ray Ganpath in the irons. Gray filly could be pressing the pace from the start and is on our tickets at a fine morning line price.
1   Summer Blaze 6/1   Four-year-old filly gets the rail and might be the speed of the speed in this one, making her attractive at a price. David Brownlee trainee didn't fire last time after a poor break in the slop, but had been the leader at first call in her first three outings, and we expect Worrie to send being along the rail for this one. Daughter of Deputy Wild Cat might get cooked up early on, but if she clears, the four-year-old could be a stubborn foe in the lane.
9   Golden Empress 4/1   Four-year-old filly by Northern Afleet ran a very positive race at first asking and could be the one with a forward move on this occasion. Cathy Rivera trainee is kin to a trio of winners from four to race and gives the impression of a major contender in this one, posting a half-mile drill recently to stay fit. Expect the bay to be a bit more forwardly placed from the start and in a nice spot approaching the turn for home. Jose Rodriguez has the assignment.

3rd JP5 5f MdnClm $12,500 2yo Fillies, Purse: $14,000. 4:54/( 3:54)/ 2:54/ 1:54
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Elopement 7/2   Two-year-old has not been seen since finishing sixth in a maiden special weight at Delta Downs in mid-October after showing some early run and is a half sister to one winner. Daughter of Private Vow will make her first start for trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 22% of his second time starters and filly can be near the front from the start under Miguel Mena riding for barn which has been going well this meet.
2   Queen Bayou 8/1   Dark bay drops in class off an unplaced effort in an open company maiden special weight event in her debut at Delta Downs eleven days ago and is a half sister to one winner. Daughter of K One King is trained by Sam Breaux who wins with 10% of his second time starters and with 22% of his runners dropping into a maiden claimer and filly showed early run in her first start and can be in the early mix breaking from near the inside under Jansen Melancon.
6   Wild Dreams of U 9/2   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when second at this level at Delta Downs last month in her eighth career start. Daughter of Woke Up Dreamin has now hit the board on four occasions and is trained by Karl Broberg who wins with 22% of his maiden claimers. Filly has early speed and can be forwardly placed early with Chris Landeros riding.
5   Nitap 8/1   Daughter of Istan is first on BRIS Back Speed and comes off an unplaced effort against better here a week ago in her first start after a short break. Filly is a half sister to three winners and is trained by Brett Brinkman who wins with 12% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 15% of his starters in maiden claiming events and dark bay could be a contender with Jose Riquelme up.

4th JP5 7f Clm $32,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $47,400. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 9-10-11) / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Bear's Kitty Kitty 2/1   Horse to catch and beat wired an allowance group last time and now drops in class off the short layoff for Mark Casse, 21% with a winner last time out. Four-year-old miss by Rockport Harbor looks to be the speed and likely class of the field and dons a 5-for-9 mark here, adding to the long list of positives. The dark bay will likely be very popular at the windows and claim box, and smoked a bullet in advance of this one. Patrick Husbands rides the formidable top play.
5   Henny's Heart 6/1   Four-year-old filly by Henny Hughes was a fine winner three back the last time she was at a similar level, and the class dropper rates a chance after facing a pair of solid fields in advance of this one. Michael Doyle trainee is a dual winner on this main oval and while not a win machine, the bay miss is more than capable on her best days and we'd like to include her as a possible separator in the field. Expect the filly to be doing her best work from off the pace under Eurico da Silva.
4   Good Vibration 5/2   Prime Power 3rd is a two-time winner on this Polytrack surface and could be ready for her best third time off the shelf, for a conditioner at 21% in that category. Brian Lynch trainee will go route to sprint and allowance to claiming in today's affair, and she does own a touch of tactical speed that should see her in front of one or two as the fields gears up for the turn for home. Solid barn having a nice meeting here, and strong pilot Luis Contreras gets the nod.

5th JP5 About 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $12,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $41,000. 5:24/( 4:24)/ 3:24/ 2:24
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Elusive Knoll 5/1   Daughter of good turf sire Cactus Ridge has not been seen since winning at this distance at Arlington in mid-September while earning top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race and has now won two of her three starts on grass. Four-year-old is trained by Frank Springer who wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 19% of his starters this year. Chestnut has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start with James Graham in the saddle.
4   Yes Sir 8/1   Three-year-old was last seen when closing to finish second at Evangeline Downs in August and has hit the board in two of her four starts on grass. Daughter of 14% turf sire Scat Daddy is from the barn of Ron Faucheux who wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and with 29% of his starters overall on grass. Filly can be a contender running from off the pace under Richard Eramia who has won with 25% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months
9   Paoli 5/2   Stakes placed filly takes a class drop off a sixth place finish in a stakes at Louisiana Downs in early September and is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3. Daughter of 20% grass sire Silent Name has won three of her ten lifetime starts on turf and is trained by Keith Desormeaux who has won with 20% of his runners since the start of this year. Four-year-old has tactical speed and can be running from just off the pace but barn wins with just 5% of runners that have not raced for 90 days or more.
5   Brittany's Tuition 9/2   Bay has a record of 12-4-1-3 on grass and comes off a well beaten second place finish on dirt over seven and a half furlongs at Delta Downs in early November in her first start after a short break. Daughter of 21% grass sire Osidy will make her third start since being claimed by Brian House who wins with 19% of his runners on turf and who has won with 16% of his starters this year. Filly can be stalking the early leaders with Jamie Theriot aboard.
Race Notes: Race Notes: Main Track Selections: #4 Yes Sir; #5 Brittany's Tuition; #10 Ivy Mountain.