Jackpot 5 Analysis – 12/13/2013

Jackpot 5 12/13/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 75 Low 74.


1st JP5 6f Clm $6,250 3yo and up, Purse: $10,500. ( 3:30)/ 2:30/ 1:30/12:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Loverbil 6/1   Gelded son of Not for Love was a game winner two back at this level and rates a chance dropping back down after facing better last time first off the claim. Prime Power second from the Schell barn caught a sloppy oval last time and figures to do better having one for this outfit and has the back class to be a big player in this field with an expected pace to fit his running style. Expect this one to be stalking the pace early on and closing well as the upset pick. Jocelyn Gomez has the assignment.
9   Swidgen 8/5   Tammy Levy trainee looks like the one to beat and rates an obvious chance coming off a 7-length score on this oval with similar most recently. Gelded son of Bandini has been in good form since being claimed three back and gets a nice draw outside of the main speed in this field for a conditioner at 29% off of this type of layoff. The five-year-old has ascneding Speed figures, and while we are a bit curious why he didn't rise in class, he still rates a very big chance as the Prime Power boss. Jose Alvarez has the assignment.
1   Wild Alley Cat 8/1   Gelded son of Flower Alley gets the rail draw for this one and could be a danger at a number in this spot for Marcus Vitali. Five-year-old Kentucky-bred was just a neck shy last time against similar and has both the speed and little turn of foot to be a factor in here, especially if they duel early on. Barn a fine 26% at this meeting and de la Cruz has the assignment.
2   Dubai Distinction 4/1   Prime Power 3rd by E Dubai has been in the top three in four of his last five and comes off a wire to wire score on this oval. Eight-year-old bay has big early foot with a draw near the rail and could possibly be the one to catch in this spot as an 11-time winner on this surface. Pedro Sobrazo pupil might face some pace pressure but is worth including as a possible overlay in the field.

2nd JP5 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $24,700. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Hobo Ridge 2/1   Prime Power leader from the barn of Jorge Navarro gets a nice slot along the inside and will be a tough customer with clear sailing in the stretch. Six-year-old son of Tiger Ridge has never run on this course, but has taken his tack and performed at different venues and we envision the Florida-bred having success here for a barn at 29% off the 46-90 layoff. Expect the pacey sort to lead the field early or be very close throughout beneath Jaen.
7   Charlie in Charge 3/1   Prime Power 3rd gives Vitali a strong contender in this field for a trainer at 26% for this meeting and we have to toss this one in the mix in a tricky race. Bay son of Indian Charlie has speed and ability to close the deal and comes off a big second on the main strip last time at Gulfstream in a decent field. Two-time turf hero could be getting back into good form after a bad patch of results and the draw should give Rispoli options in the early stages. Chance at a fair price.
4   Farmers Market 4/1   Bay son of After Market has won three of his last five, all on the main oval, but also has some turf form here and we have to use this one. Angel Medina trainee has been first or second in four of seven on this turf oval and packs a big punch in the lane, though this barn being 0-for-30 with a winner last time out makes him hard to back with confidence. Four-year-old colt gets a look nonetheless, with Kenny in the controls.

3rd JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 4:23/( 3:23)/ 2:23/ 1:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Punctual Jeff 5/2   Clear BRIS Prime Power choice comes off a win here in late November over a mile when closing strongly from off the pace in his first start since June and now owns a record of 13-2-4-5 lifetime on grass. Son of 14% grass sire More Than Ready is trained by Mike Maker who wins with 19% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 25% of his starters that won their last race. Four-year-old should find a decent pace to suit his closing run style here and can win again with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
3   At the Pulpit 7/2   Four-year-old is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3 and was last seen when unplaced against better at Indiana in mid-July. Son of Pulpit has a record of 7-1-1-2 on this turf course for trainer Michelle Lovell who wins with 24% of her runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and with 19% of her starters on grass and gelding can be stalking the early leaders under Brian Hernandez who won with one of his last four rides for the barn.
6   Beckyboy 4/1   Dark bay has won two of his thirteen lifetime starts on grass and was last seen when second at Louisiana Downs over a mile in early August when earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race. Trainer Morris Nicks wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days and with 19% of his starters in claiming events and son of Suave has won one of his six starts on this turf course and can be running late with Jamie Theriot aboard.
8   Thaw 8/1   Son of Rock Hard Ten has been disappointing since joining the barn of Wayne Catalano from France a year and a half ago and was last seen when unplaced on the main track over six and a half furlongs at Churchill last month. Catalano wins with 10% of his runners switching from dirt to turf and has won with 20% of his starters since the beginning of the year and four-year-old could be a contender for minor honors with Denny Velazquez riding.

4th JP5 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 4:26)/ 3:26/ 2:26/ 1:26
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta / .20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Sparrowhawk 8/1   Gray son of Old Forrester didn't have any speed last time but did show a bit of late life and can improve second time off the layoff. Prime Power 3rd has run well on this main oval in the past with three top three finishes from five tries, and a clean break should have this one a ton closer early on from a nice post to press of stalk the pace under Patrick Husbands. Sophomore colt blew out two panels to get sharp for this one and could be a big presence when the field turns for home with this positive rider change.
5   Fighting Chris 3/1   Prime Power boss is seemingly always there late and should be once again today for conditioner Kevin Attard. Son of Old Forrester shows seven top three finishes on this main oval and was a fine second at seven panels last time, making the cut back in trip a very good idea with Omar Moreno in the silks. We expect the three-year-old to be forwardly placed in the second flight early and getting the jump on the late runners in here. Must use.
4   Speyside 4/1   Versatile sort from the barn of Reade Baker is going very well right now and has impressed in closing well in a dash and winning, which followed a big second going long while attending the pace. Capable son of Mobil seems to have found his niche closing in one turn races and the four-year-old will likely be rallying late for a trainer who is 19% with a winner last time out. Prime Power second keeps McAleny in the irons and shows a trio of morning moves to stay fit for this endeavor.
9   Hawks Got Fire 10/1   Likely speed of the field dons the best E1 and E2 Pace figs in the group and might be the one to catch in his debut with winners. The win contender wired a field at five panels and seems like the leader stretching out a furlong today for Glennon, 14% with a maiden winner most recently. We love the move to Emma-Jayne Wilson and consider this one dangerous at a price with his early speed.

5th JP5 6f Clm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $24,000. 4:53/( 3:53)/ 2:53/ 1:53
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Gibes 3/1   Four-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when second at Churchill in mid-November when claimed by Brian House and has a record of 4-1-0-1 at Fair Grounds. Daughter of Heckle is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Current Class and House won with one of his last seven runners first off the claim and with his first starter at this meet. Filly has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start with Jamie Theriot riding.
6   Crypto Good 7/2   Dark bay has a record of 4-2-2-0 here and was last seen when unplaced at Louisiana Downs in early September over six and a half furlongs after dueling for the early lead. Trainer Wesley Hawley wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and with 19% of his starters in claiming races and daughter of speedy sore Good And Tough can be the one to catch with James Graham in the saddle.
5   Sweet Ide 5/1   Chestnut is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3 and comes off an unplaced finish over a mile against better late last month when making her first start after a three month plus break. Daughter of Ide has won two of her seven starts on the main track at Fair Grounds and is from the barn of Keith Desormeaux who wins with 14% of his runners second time off a layoff and who has made a solid start to this meet. Filly can be stalking the early leaders with Kerwin Clark remaining aboard.