Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/14/2013

Jackpot 5 12/14/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 79 Low 76.


1st JP5 6 1/2f Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $75,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Black Diamond Cat 5/2   Prime Power 3rd from the barn of Larry Bates comes off a pair of huge wins in succession and looks like a major player in this field. Gelded son of Wildcat Heir gets back on this oval after a short layoff and dons a fine mark of 17 first or second place finishes on this surface. The bay has won three of his last four, all stakes events, and is hard to ignore with the current form cycle for a conditioner at 18% in non graded stakes runs. Expect the six-year-old to stalk early and pounce at the top of the lane with his best.
8   Close It Out 6/1   Win contender is most consistent and is always a player on this main oval, where he sports 15 top three finishes from 17 races at Calder. Steve Towne trainee is a one run closer who almost always fires and will have Manny Cruz riding, always a plus on this surface. We're not sure that this son of Closing Argument will have the pace to run at late, but we still think the five-year-old could be tough to hold off at a price in this one. Barn 13% third time off the layoff.
5   Heart Stealer 4/1   Sophomore daughter of Speightstown was a nice stakes second last time to a nice one and this filly will try the boys in here in an aggressive move by the always dangerous Marty Wolfson, 28% at this meeting. Three-year-old lass tops the group in Prime Power and has run huge in a pair of runs since joining this barn, and looks to have lots of room for improvement being lightly raced. Kentucky-bred has speed and will always be in the mix under Joel Rosario.

2nd JP5 1m (Turf) MdnClm $32,000 2yo, Purse: $14,500. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Seattle Brook 8/1   Interesting son of Montbrook gets the rail for his turf debut and might be the one to catch today for trainer Juan Arias, +2.95 ROI first time on the green. Kin to a grassy winner, the juvenile colt showed good speed with special weight foes in his debut before tiring, and the recent works, surface change and drop in class combined makes this Florida-bred worth using in here, especially at a solid number. Bullet gate drill most recently, Madrid has the call.
8   Thunderinwillie 9/5   Potential horse to beat gets a wide post but was a nice fourth in his lone run on the lawn in advance of this, and could easily be the one for O'Connell, 13% dirt to turf and 16% special weight to claiming. Chestnut son of good turf influence Thunder gulch has one turf winning sibling and his best showing came on the lawn, in a nice field on a 'good' oval here. Nice rider change to Eddie Nunez -- must use.
5   Wondrouswager 12/1   Gelded son of Stevie Wonderboy got a yielding turf oval for his debut on the lawn and might be dangerous having one under his belt if the surface is more firm today. Michael Yates pupil has grassy breeding some through his dam and was not totally dead on the board in this first call with special weight runners, so he looks to have some appeal at a big morning line price that could help spike the return in this sequence. Pedro Monterrey rides for a conditioner at 16% second time out.
3   Windtalker 2/1   Prime Power leader for William White has run his last pair with better at the special weight level and rates an obvious chance on the drop in here. Chestnut colt by Silver Tree is kin to a turf graduate and has run evenly leading up to this, for a barn at 21% second time going long. Jeffrey Sanchez will guide the March foal and might be a bit closer early on today. Chance from a stalking spot.

3rd JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $100,000. 4:53/( 3:53)/ 2:53/ 1:53
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Ladyzarbridge 6/1   Six-year-old led from start to finish in this event twelve months ago and has a record of 4-3-0-1 at Fair Grounds for trainer Edward Johnston who has won with 21% of his runners this year. Daughter of Zarbyev was last seen when fifth on grass in a stakes at Louisiana Downs in mid-August and posted a five furlong work a week ago here in 1:01 for Johnston who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Mare has speed but does not have to be on the lead to win and will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik who was aboard the bay in this event last year.
9   Sweettalkin Hottie 6/1   Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when getting up late to win here in late November is her first start since August and is also first on Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3. Daughter of Oratory is trained by Wesley Hawley who has made a good start to this meet and who wins with 16% of his runners second time off a layoff. Mare can be running late into contention with James Graham remaining aboard.
6   Little Ms Protocol 9/5   BRIS Prime Power selection coems off a second place finish in a stakes at Delta Downs in early November and finished second in both of her two previous starts at Fair Grounds which includes a runner-up finish in this event last year. Trainer Patrick Devereux wins with 31% of his runners making their second start off a layoff and won with both of his two starters at this meet and daughter of El Corredor can be stalking the early leaders under Diego Saenz who won with six of his last ten rides for the barn.
5   Insincerely Yours 20/1   Four-year-old has won four of her six starts on the Fair Grounds main track and comes off a sixth place finish over six furlongs here in late November but likely needed that one being her first start since March. Daughter of Flatter is unbeaten at this mile and a sixteenth distance for trainer Alice Cohn who has won with 17% of her runners this year and filly can be running from off the pace under David Flores.

4th JP5 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $70,300. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Pick 3 (races 9-10-11) / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Sharp Sensation 2/1   Top pick from the barn of Reade Baker took the lead before tiring late in his debut with winners last time and the twice raced contender figures to get a real nice trip in this spot as the top selection. Dark bay son of Sharp Humor was a dynamic debut winner here last campaign and his latest looked like a horse who might have needed one off the long layoff, 11 months. The gelding gets Lasix for an outfit at 30% with a beaten favorite last time, and the pick should be in the second flight early prior to taking over late. Emma Jayne will ride and is 27% for this outfit last 60 days.
8   Mey's Rocket 4/1   Prime Power 2nd for 24% meet conditioner Justin Nixon jumps up some from the $40,000 claiming ranks but still rates a big chance from off the tempo. Gelded son of Weather Warning comes in with good recent form on this main oval and has finished in the top three in 9 of 11 on this Polytrack, for a barn at 28% in the allowance ranks. Jesse Campbell rides and we expect the price on the four-year-old to float up some, as well.
5   Ratso Rizzo 6/1   Pat Parente trainee was a fine winner on this oval last time in showing big speed and not stopping, and the son of Old Forrester surely makes sense as the potential one to catch in this one. Three-year-old gelding is something of an all or nothing type with a trio of wins from six starts and no placings, but the bay is still most dangerous with that pace from the start for an outfit at 12% with a winner most recently. Must consider.

5th JP5 1 1/16m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $50,000. ( 5:26)/ 4:26/ 3:26/ 2:26
First Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Brighton Rock 4/1   Prime Power boss gets the rail post for this endeavor and looms large second off th4e layoff as well as going sprint to route. Shelley Fitzgerald trainee is kin to a winner from two to race and the gelding has flashed potential on this oval from three starts, with an even effort last time that looked like a horse who could thrive with more ground. We love the post on the rail and expect Tommy Wong to be a few lengths back to the top of the lane while saving all the ground.
7   A. A. Grenade 5/2   Prime Power second owns the top Average speed in the field and looks like a player in this one for England, a 10% trainer at this meeting. Kin to four winners from as many to race, this son of Peaks and Valleys has placed in three straight and should have no fitness issues after routing solely in preparation of this race. The dark bay has some tactical foot and a nice post to stalk the early tempo, and he should be well placed for the drive beneath Jesse Campbell.
2   Executive Barlee 8/5   Prime Power 3rd missed by just a nose last time on this oval and would be of no surprise with a graduating run today. Five-year-old chestnut has failed to deliver from a bunch of chances leading up to this, but the morning line choice has been second in three of his last four and seemingly needs just a bit of luck to deliver in this spot, which lacks a standout. Gary Boulanger rides for a low percentage barn at just 1-for-40 with special weight runners.