Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/21/2013

Jackpot 5 12/21/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $50,000. ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33 ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Occasional View 4/1   Prime Power 3rd was a bit unlucky to have lost last time at Woodbine in the Autumn (Can-G2) when just run down after opening up a big lead in the lane in his debut for Ken McPeek. Five-year-old son of Silver Deputy looks like a reasonable claim when grabbed for $100,000 two prior and his four all weather wins loom large in this one for a conditioner who is 22% in stakes events from a big sample. Tactical sort will likely take back some in this event, but he will be tough in the lane with anything like his last pair under Lebron.
10   Cyber Secret 3/1   Talented Grade 2 winner from the barn of Lynn Whiting surely has the class to be a player in this field and might be the one to beat as the Prime Power second. Four-year-old colt by Broken Vow had a superb sophomore campaign and his second on the lawn at Churchill behind a nice one last time suggests that he can run a big one second off the layoff today for a barn at 29% in non graded stakes races. The surface, which he has raced upon just once at Keeneland, is the lone concern.
12   Stormy Going 15/1   Longshot son of Stormy Atlantic ran off to a huge lead and held on in a fine allowance race on this oval leading up to this, and the five-year-old might try to do the same here despite drawing widest in the field. Luis Jurado trainee is not the most consistent runner in the field but is a fine 4-for-7 on the all weather in his lifetime and the way he handled the oval last time makes him a player in our view. Perry Ouzts picks up the ride for a trainer off to a blazing start at this meeting.
7   Depeche Chat 8/1   Rusty Arnold trainee will make his debut in this racer and we view this son of Wildcat Heir as a contender in this field. Five-year-old chestnut is a stakes winner on the lawn at a similar trip, and while he's done most of his work on the green, we have confidence that he will take to this Polytrack oval today coming off a fair prep race that should have him dead fit. We like the addition of Channing Hill and the barn is also 16% going grass to synthetic, so we will use this one at a price.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m Clm $5,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $7,500. ( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02/ 2:02 ( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Super Hi Five
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Sorta Sassy 7/2   Prime Power second has been first or second in 10 of 22 lifetime runs and we think this lass will relish the return to the all weather on this occasion. Five-year-old mare by Cashel Castle dons a fine 8-3-2-1 mark on synthetic ovals and has the right post and running style for this race for Ingrid Mason, who is 22% dirt to synthetic. We'll tab the gray with Berrios in the saddle.
7   Chile Tequila 4/1   Seven-year-old mare is a course specialist of sorts with nine local wins, and the Jerry Balo pupil can't be ignored in this one. Speedy sort is unraced since the fall for a 9% layoff barn but shows some drills for a conditioner at 19% with shippers, and if she is ready, the dark bay could prove the one to catch in this one with Jimenez in the saddle. Chance at a fair price.
2   Class of Fifty Two 8/1   Five-year-old daughter of Badge of Silver ran a huge one with blinkers added last time and the mare moves to the barn of Carlos Lopez on this occasion. Kentucky-bred lass could have simply turned the corner with the equipment change in this one and is a winner on this oval, so a positive run is expected in this one with De Leon in the silks. Expect this one to be stalking the pace early while fairly close up.
1   My Cherry Pie 10/1   Bay mare by Three Wonders ran a lifetime best Speed figure last time in her debut on this main oval and the five-year-old gets a cozy rail draw on this occasion. Prime Power 3rd was a clear second behind a fine winner last time with straight $5,000 claimers and is in conditions today with speed on the rail to boot. Florida-bred bay responded to the removal of blinkers last time and makes sense in the field. Vergara rides.

3rd JP5 6 1/2fAlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $32,000. 5:12/ 4:12/( 3:12)/ 2:12
.50 Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11) $1exacta / Trifecta /.10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Pro Tractor 4/1   Four-year-old son of Pro Prado chased a repeat winner all the way around the Zia oval last time and could be a main danger in this spot as a winning contender. Gelding has big early foot and cuts back in trip for this endeavor for a trainer at 20% off the 46-90 day layoff. New Mexico bred could be live in his second try since the spring and with a clean break, the consistent sort could be tracking the pace from the start as a live contender under Juarez, Jr. Gets the slight nod.
8   Nuggets Please 6/1   Prime Power 3rd draws outside in this field and rates a big chance while topping the group in Average speed. Stakes winning son of Prospector Jones was a decent third from off the pace at Zia last time in preparation of this one and might get a decent pace to run at late for conditioner Justin Evans, a sizzling 11-for-22 at this meeting leading up to this one. Francisco Giles will guide the late runner and must be on the ticket.
5   Our Choice 3/1   'Other' Evans trainee tops the field in Prime Power and comes in with a dominating win versus cheaper last time. Eight-year-old gelding has done some good work on this oval in the past with seven wins on this dirt oval, and the cut back in trip could enhance this one's late burst with Eikleberry riding, 38% for this outfit last 60 days. Can't ignore these connections right now.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $75,000. 5:22/( 4:22)/ 3:22/ 2:22
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-10) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 8-12)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Grand Contender 5/2   Five-year-old has won three of his four starts since joining the barn of Tom Amoss this year including his latest when winning the Delta Mile by over four lengths last month while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race. Son of Strong Contender is also first on Prime Power and Current and Average Class Last 3 and Amoss wins with 30% of his runners that won their last stat and with 24% in non-graded stakes. Gelding has early speed and can be in good position from the start under Rosie Napravnik who won with three of her last eleven rides for the barn.
1   Agent Di Nozzo 3/1   Gelding made late progress to finish second behind the top selection in the Delta Mile in his latest in his first start after a short break and won one of his two previous starts at Fair Grounds. Son of Ghostzapper is trained by Steve Margolis who wins with 29% of his runners in non-graded stakes and who has won with 17% of his starters since the beginning of the year and four-year-old can be closing into contention from off the pace under Shaun Bridgmohan who won with 11% of his rides for the barn in the last 60 days.
3   Prayer for Relief 7/2   Son of Jump Start is first on BRIS Back Speed and was last seen when outclassed in the Grade One Clark Handicap at Churchill in late November when making his first start after a short break. Five-eyar-odl has a record of 7-2-3-1 at today's distance and is trained by Steve Asmussen who wins with 21% of his runners second time off a layoff and who has won with 26% of his starters at this meet. Dark bay has tactical speed and can be near the front early with David Flores in the irons/

5th JP5 About 1 1/16m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $75,000. 5:48/( 4:48)/ 3:48/ 2:48
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 9-11) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 9-12)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   King David 7/2   Grade One winner by excellent turf sire Hat Trick is first on BRIS Prime Power and Current Class and was last seen when winning at Churchill in late September over a mile in his second start of the year. Four-year-old has won six of his eleven lifetime starts on grass and two of four at today's distance and is trained by Mike Maker who wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 18% of his starters at this meet. Dark bay can be running from off the pace under Rosie Napravnik who won with 26% of her rides for Maker in the last two months.
4   Adios Nardo 12/1   Four-year-old has won five off his last six starts and comes off a win over the course and distance when leading all the way in late November in his first start after a short break and has now won three of his eight lifetime starts at a mile and a sixteenth. Son of 15% grass sire Invisible Ink is trained by Leo Gabriel who wins with 14% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 19% that won their last start. Gelding has early speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with Mark Guidry retaining the mount.
2   Daddy Nose Best 6/1   Son of 14% grass sire Scat Daddy has won five of his thirteen lifetime starts on turf and comes off a fifth place finish after a rough trip in the Grade Three River City Handicap at Churchill over nine furlongs last month in his first start after a short break. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 17% of his runners on grass and has won with 26% of his starters at this meet and four-year-old can be running from off the pace under David Flores who won with 33% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
6   Pure Tactics 8/1   Colt set a course record when winning a stakes at Louisiana Downs two back and comes off a second place finish when closing after a troubled trip at Keeneland over a mile in October. Son of Pure Prize has been working well for trainer Morris Nicks who wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and four-year-old may be a contender at decent odds with Jamie Theriot in the saddle.