Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/29/2013

Jackpot 5 12/29/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 60 Low 48.


1st JP5 5 1/2f MdnClm $12,500 2yo Fillies, Purse: $14,000. 3:54/( 2:54)/ 1:54/12:54
$0.50 Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 5-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Nitap 7/2   BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Early and Late Pace Last Race when second over five furlongs at this level here three weeks ago in her second start after a short break. Daughter of Istan is a half sister to three winners and is from the barn of Brett Brinkman who wins with 13% of his runners third time off a layoff and with 15% of his starters in maiden claiming events. Dark bay is also first on Back Speed and Current Class and can be running from off the pace under Miguel Mena.
4   What U Say Pat Say 5/1   Blinkers are added to daughter of Easyfromthegitgo who comes off a non-threatening unplaced effort in her debut here three weeks ago when finishing behind the top selection. Chestnut is trained by Carl Deville who wins with 17% of his runners using blinkers for the first time and with 11% of his starters in maiden claiming events and filly can show more here with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
2   Deb's Gal 5/1   Filly comes off a third place finish in her debut when making some late progress at this level and distance. Trainer James Hodges wins with 9% of his second time starters and with 13% overall in maiden claimers and filly posted a decent four furlong work in 49 1/5 a week ago and may show more here with Eddie Martin retaining the mount.

2nd JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $45,000. 4:22/( 3:22)/ 2:22/ 1:22
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Sweet Basil 9/2   Newcomer by 13% grass sire Pulpit is a half sister to four winners including Grade Three winner Eightyfiveinafifty and will debut for trainer Edward Johnston who wins with 15% of his first time starters. Dark bay posted a five furlong work in 1:00 1/5 nine days ago for Johnston who has won with 29% of his runners at this meet and who wins with 21% overall on grass. Filly may be ready for a winning effort at first asking under Richard Eramia who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
5   Arlington Getaway 10/1   Chestnut fading to finish fourth in her debut as the favorite over five and a half furlongs here early this month but may be better on grass being by 14% turf sire Speightstown. Trainer Mike Stidham wins with 17% of his second time starters and has won with 17% of his runners at this meet and two-year-old can be near the front early with Chris Laneros retaining the mount.
2   Silk Purse 9/2   Chestnut by 13% grass sire Elusive Quality is a half sister to nine winners including Grade Two scorer This One's For Phil and will debut for 13% first out trainer Steve Asmussen. $60K yearling purchase has been working forwardly for Asmussen who has won with 21% of his runners at this meet and filly can be a factor early breaking from near the inside with Rosie Napravnik aboard.
8   Thieves Guild 8/1   Daughter of 12% turf sire Medaglia d'Oro is out of $313K earner and stakes winner Gilded Gold and will make her first start for trainer James Toner who wins with 17% of his newcomers. Two-year-old worked five furlongs in 59 3/5 here eight days ago for Toner who has won with 15% of his runners since the beginning of the year and filly can be a contender under Miguel Mena.

3rd JP5 6 1/2fAlwOClm $20,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $24,500. ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Pan Dulce 4/1   In-form daughter of Candy Ride has been first or second in three of her last four and rates a big chance with even minor improvement today for conditioner Eddie Caramori, 22% with a beaten favorite last time. Three-year-old Kentucky-bred ran too well to lose last time in a fine second when just missing to a foe in this race, and the bay could move forward second off the short layoff as well as second time on this oval, with Roberto Morales in the irons. Expect this miss to be stalking the pace while never that far back.
8   Northern Borealis 5/1   Prime Power second from the barn of Tommy Drury comes off a nice third on this oval in the allowance ranks in just her second outing since the summer, and the bay miss surely makes sense with room for improvement on this occasion. Daughter of Northern Afleet broke her maiden on this oval at first asking and she seems to be improving from her last few tries for a barn which is a fine 26% third time off the layoff. We like the post and tactical speed from this one and consider her to be a huge presence when the field turns for home.
1   Smittenwithkitten 9/2   Mike Maker trainee gets the rail for her first run since the fall and makes a bit of sense in this field for expert connections. Daughter of Kitten's Joy was seen making an even run at Keeneland last time on a similar surface in with some decent foes, and the chestnut has worked forwardly since for a conditioner at 21% off the 46-90 day layoff. Victor Lebron rides the contender and could put the sophomore right into the race from this post slot. Dangerous.

4th JP5 6 1/2f MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $22,500. ( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Super Hi Five
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Beth Ann's Kitten 2/1   Bay filly by Kitten's Joy will make her bow for conditioner Mike Maker and looks the one to beat in this slot. March foal has a ton of foundation with five lifetime tries, and the bay has keep some fine company in advance this run with a decent field, for a conditioner at 20% 1st w/trainer. Kin to a stakes winner from one to run, the win player cuts back after a handful of route runs, and we think her late kick will be that much stronger going short. Victor Lebron has the call and is 2-for-4 for this outfit last 60 days.
9   Parc Celeste 3/1   Prime Power leading daughter of Magna Graduate was a fine third on this oval at the level most recently and will be tough with a forward run off of that finish. Dark bay filly is the first out of an unraced dam and will go second off the claim for this barn for an outfit at a solid 20% in that category. Robert Pincins pupil will be forwardly placed and making her move approaching the turn for home.
11   Stella Maker 6/1   First timer by fine sire Empire Maker is kin to a winner from one to race, a two-year-old stakes winner, so we have to keep an eye on this well-bred sort, especially if she takes early money. Rusty Arnold trainee is cut out to be better with age and distance, but we love the morning drills and figure she will be fit and ready for this one under Rodney Prescott. January foal goes for a trainer at 9% debut maiden specials for a +1.44 ROI, so this filly wouldn't be a shocker.

5th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) AlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up, Purse: $48,000. 5:22/( 4:22)/ 3:22/ 2:22
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Sir Applesolutely 3/1   Chestnut has not been seen since earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when second on the main track at Keeneland in early October but is also first on Prime Power and Average Class Last 3. Son of 10% turf sire Henny Hughes is a half brother to three winners on grass and posted a four furlong work in 46 3/5 here six days ago for trainer Neil Pessin who wins with 11% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gelding can be running from just off the pace in his turf debut under Rosie Napravnik who won with two of her last five rides for the barn.
8   Triumph and Song 9/2   Gray will make his turf debut and comes off a fifth place finish at Churchill in late November and may have needed that start being his first since August. Four-year-old may take to the surface being by My Golden Song whose offspring win 16% of their starts on turf and is trained by Bret Calhoun who does well with sprinters on grass and who wins with 22% second off a layoff. Gelding has early speed and can be forwardly placed under Leandro Goncalves.
7   Ouimet 4/1   Son of 14% grass sire Yankee Gentleman won one of his two previous starts on turf and was last seen when third on the main track as the favorite at Churchill in late November in his second start after a near five month break. Trainer Greg Foley wins with 23% of his runners third time off a layoff and has won with 13% of his starters this year and gelding can be running from off the pace with Miguel Mena up.
9   China 15/1   Six-year-old won the Bonapaw Stakes over the course and distance a year ago when leading from the start and was last seen when unplaced on the main track at Churchill last month in his first start since May. Trainer John Good wins with 19% of his runners second off a layoff and has won with 13% of his starters this year and son of Tale of the Cat could be a factor from the start with Florent Geroux in the saddle.