Jackpot 5 Analysis - 2/08/2014

Jackpot 5 02/08/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 78 Low 73.


1st JP5 5 1/2fAlwOClm $8,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,800. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Sydney Rules 2/1   Trainer Kirk Ziadie is a sensational 46% off the claim and this one that comes off a win and moves to this barn must be on the ticket. Five-year-old mare by Peace Rules is a two-time winner on this main oval and comes in fresh for a fine barn having a huge meeting at 46% at Calder. The bay showed a lot of heart in fighting back after being passed in the lane last time, and we figure she will be pressing the pace from the opening bell today. Formidable.
1   Music N Songs 4/1   Four-year-old filly gets a nice draw on the rail and has been facing mostly a lot better in advance of this one. Juan Arias pupil is unraced since December but can fire when fresh for a capable layoff conditioner, and she has the tactical speed to be on the lead or tucked in behind early if a duel ensues. Florida-bred could be an overlay after not firing most recently, but we consider her a big contender facing softer. Eddie Nunez rides.
7   Pom Pom Power 3/1   Chestnut mare by Pomeroy comes into this race with fine form after a pair of fine wins in succession, and the five-year-old is an obvious player despite the class rise off the claim for Maragh. Florida-bred lass is equipped with some solid tactical speed from a perfect post to stalk the early pace, and she goes for a conditioner at a fine 29% first time off the claim. Julio Felix will guide the Prime Power second.

2nd JP5 6f Clm $6,250 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,500. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   La Ranchera 7/2   Howard Mills trainee has been in good form coming in with a pair of runner-up showings most recently, and the chestnut will be a player in this wide open field. Daughter of Burning Roma has been showing improved speed as of late but still has shown the ability to pass horses in the lane in the past and we like the versatility for a trainer at 17% with a beaten favorite last time. Prime Power 3rd will be forwardly placed under Nelson.
3   Frosty Royale 6/1   Speedy sort from the barn of Harry Nelson looks like the inside speed opf the field and will run with blinkers, for a barn at 18% when adding the shades. Bay daughter of Chapel Royal dueled through fast splits and tired off the layoff last time, but having one off the shelf and adding the blinks makes this filly an interesting commodity at a decent price. Prime Power second gets in light with Sullivan in the silks.
2   Vizcaya Star 5/2   Four-year-old filly by Johannesburg has very good early foot and is a danger for sure with a clean break today. Barry Croft charge has won or placed in 7 of 11 outings on this main strip and finally gets a post near the rail after being outside in many starts leading up to this, for a barn going pretty well at 17% for the meeting. Juan Delgado has the assignment, and if his mount clears early she could be extra tough.

3rd JP5 1mAlwOClm $20,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,000. ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Spoonfulofsugar 5/1   Improving filly by Bluegrass Cat has really gotten better from a Speed number standpoint since coming onto this lawn, and she could be the one with even slight improvement in here. Four-year-old chestnut made a big move entering and through the lane last time before finishing a close second, for a conditioner who is good with a beaten favorite last time. Doug Danner trained Kentucky-bred gets the nod from off the pace in this tricky heat.
1   Bandi's Gal 3/1   Laura Belmear charge owns the top Average speed in the field and is well drawn on the rail with a huge shot today. Daughter of Bandini is a fine 4-for-9 on this Polytrack surface and comes in with fine form, winning or placing in six of her last seven. Likely horse to beat goes for a conditioner at a fine 42% with a beaten favorite last time, and the mare has earned Speed figs of 88 and 89 in her last pair, making her a most formidable foe. Perry Outzs rides the fleet lass, who could be on the front end from the opening bell.
8   Demure Halo 5/1   Six-year-old daughter of Quiet American was compromised by post some last time when getting the rail and rushing up early, only to tire late. Pacey sort does own fine early foot but we like this outer post a lot better for Habeeb, as the mare led nearly all the way two back with similar in a fine second. Florida-bred can win from off the pace a bit and we see her prompting the issue early and having a target turning for home.
6   Smittenwithkitten 7/2   Chestnut daughter of Kitten's joy goes out for the best barn on the grounds and could be the one second off the layoff going sprint to route. Four-year-old filly was even while never factoring last time in a dash here, which may have been a prep for this one at two turns, where the lass is much better. Barn 28% at this meeting, Jiminez rides and will likely have this one in the second flight early on.

4th JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) Clm $25,000 4yo and up, Purse: $29,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Cavalero 3/1   Son of 20% grass sire Odsidy has not been seen since finishing a close fourth over a mile here in early December and has won ten of his twenty lifetime starts on turf. Six-year-old will make his second start for trainer Tom Amoss who wins with 28% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 28% of his starters at this meet. Six-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start under Rosie Napravnik who won with 432% of her mounts for the barn in the last two months.
9   Lucky Rave 7/2   Seven-year-old remained unbeaten in two starts on this turf course when getting up late to defeat others that return here over the course and distance last month while earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 22% of his runners that won their last start and with 18% of his starters on grass and son of Lucky Story can be closing fast again from off the pace with Shaun Bridgmohan retaining the mount.
6   Green Secret 9/2   Gray comes off a narrow loss at this level and distance here last month after setting the early fractions in his first start since being reclaimed by Mike Stidham. Son of Unbridled's Song has won fourteen of his twenty nine lifetime starts on grass and Stidham wins with 17% of his runners on turf and with 22% of his starters in claiming events. Gelding has early speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with James Graham remaining aboard.
4   Saint Pierre 20/1   Seven-year-old has won two of his fourteen starts on grass and comes off a fifth placed finish over the course and distance at this level last month when making his first start since November. Trainer James Toner wins with 14% of his runners on grass and won with one of his first eleven starters at this meet and son of Speightstown can be a contender for a share at good odds with Florent Geroux taking the mount.

5th JP5 6fAlwOClm $40,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. 5:25/( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Saturday Nthe Park 5/2   Filly earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when winning by over four lengths here over five and a half furlongs in January and is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Average Class Last 3. Daughter of Any Given Saturday is trained by Bill Heffner who has now won with two of his ten starters at this meet and four-year-old can get a good trip running from just off the pace with Rosie Napravnik aboard today.
5   Anahauc 3/1   Dark bay comes off a narrow in over the course and distance in mid-January when making her second start after a six month break and now has a record of 7-2-3-1 at Fair Grounds. Daughter of Henny Hughes is from the barn of Bernie Flint who is having a good meet winning with 35% of his starters and who wins with 12% third time off a layoff. Filly should find a decent early pace here to help her closing run style be effective under James Graham who won with seven of his last twelve rides for the barn.
1   Monono 9/2   Mare was claimed by Bernie Flint when third here in January after dueling for the early lead and now has a record of 4-0-1-1 at Fair Grounds. Flint wins with 17% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 35% of his starters at this meet and daughter of Whywhywhy can be in the early mix breaking from the rail with Kerwin Clark in the saddle.