Jackpot 5 Analysis – 2/15/2014


Jackpot 5 02/15/2014



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1st JP5 5 1/2fAlwOClm $40,000 4yo and up, Purse: $24,700. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Mongolian Saturday 9/5   Multiple stakes placed son of Any Given Saturday makes his first run since the fall and rates a big chance while fresh with his back class. Gelded four-year-old gets the rail and will run this trip, which could be a bit shy of his best, but the Kentucky-bred has a ton of early foot and might not have an issue with a clean break. Win contender proved he can run off of works in his debut when rolling home by 10, and it's hard to look past this speedster, who was a huge second two back at seven panels in a $400,000 stakes.
2   Small Token 2/1   Prime Power 2nd has been in pretty good form in winning or placing in four straight, all on this oval, and could peak third off the layoff in here. Five-year-old son of Bandini has a nice turn of foot in a field that could have a sharp early pace, and his eight top three finishes on this oval gives us confidence that the gelding will fire once again for Pellegrini, 19% third off the pine. Juan Leyva has the assignment aboard the dark bay.
5   Cocktails With Dan 6/1   Prime Power 3rd did not fire going a mile at Gulfstream last out, but had fine sprint form prior to that and he could be a big overlay in this field. Five-year-old son of Trippi has never run here but has good tactical speed and a turn of foot, and the trip might be perfect for conditioner Jane Cibelli, a 21% sprint conditioner. Florida-bred surely has room for improvement out for just the third time since September, and could be a wise inclusion in this sequence if the pacesetter backs up in the lane.
 

2nd JP5 1 1/16mAlwOClm $16,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $23,800. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Guayana 6/1   Four-year-old daughter of The Daddy has never been better leading into this affair and comes off a lifetime best Speed number in a three-length win versus cheaper. Marcus Vitali pupil has been first or second in seven of her last ten, including four top two runs on this oval for a conditioner at a sharp 28% for the meeting and 25% with a winner last time out. The filly will be forwardly placed in the first or second flight, and get first run on the late closers. Big shot under Caraballo.
10   Awesome Vow 3/1   Prime Power leading daughter of Awesome Again gets parked widest in the field but has very good early foot and was a fine winner against mostly similar here two back for Navarro, 34% at this meeting as well as 28% with a beaten favorite last time. Gray seven-year-old is 4-for-10 at this trip and was outrun early last time in a subpar showing, though we expect a quick turn around today following a rapid half-mile move leading up to this. Pedro Cotto has the call.
2   Outwildcattin 4/1   Robert Posada trainee might have the best turn of foot in the field and might capitalize in a race where it looks like a fast and contested pace will be part of. Chestnut mare by Wildcat Heir doesn't win very often and has ten placings with just one tally on this oval, but the pace scenario is clearly in this one's favor and we also expect her to be a much bigger number than her morning line. Juan Delgado will be in the silks and likely try to time his ride just ride en route to a potential upset.
 

3rd JP5 6f Clm $10,000 4yo and up, Purse: $21,000. 5:00/( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 6-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Sweetsouthernmoon 5/2   Eight-year-old comes off a win at this level and distance last month when running from off the pace in his first start since being claimed by Jonas Gibson and is first on BRIS Back Speed and Current Class. Son of Sweetsouthernsaint now has a record of 11-2-3-4 at Fair Grounds and Gibson wins with 22% of his runners that won their last start and with 16% of his starters overall in claiming races. Dark bay can be running from off the pace with Rosie Napravnik remaining aboard.
1   Dublin Da'bet 4/1   Chestnut was claimed by Keith Desormeaux when unplaced at this level and distance in January after showing early speed despite stumbling badly at the start and has won three of his six starts at Fair Grounds. Desormeaux wins with 23% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 17% of his starters at this meet and son D'wildcat can be near the front from the start breaking from the rail under Chris Landeros.
6   Warning Song 6/1   Gelding is first on BRIS Prime Power and Average Class Last 3 and comes off a fifth place finish against better here in late January in his first start in over a year. Son of Successful Appeal will make his third start since being claimed by Patrick Mouton who wins with 15% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 14% of his starters in claiming events. Seven-year-old has back class and may show more here with James Graham retaining the mount.
 

4th JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 4yo and up, Purse: $100,000. 5:09/( 4:09)/ 3:09/ 2:09
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9),50 Cent Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
1   Stealcase 7/2   Returns to stakes competition today in his third start back from the layoff after putting in a nice effort last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition in which he rallied from three lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by two lengths. A repeat of that performance will make him a threat in this spot and he may be capable of better in his third start back. Trainer Mark Casse wins with 21% of his runners making their third start off the layoff and with an equal percentage of his runners next out after winning their start prior. Eurico Da Silva gets the call and he wins 25% of the route races he has a mount in.
5   Right to Vote 4/1   Posted a very nice BRIS Speed rating while facing $100k allowance/optional claiming competition here last out in his first start back from the layoff in which he stalked the pace early, took command, and then held on late to claim the victory by three parts of a length. Trainer Ron Moquett wins with 14% of his runners next out after winning their start prior and 15% of the non-graded stakes races he has a runner in. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call and he wins 16% of the route races he has a mount in.
4   Street Spice 6/1   Tackled stakes competition last out at Fair Grounds in his first start back from the layoff and put in a so-so effort in which he attempted to rally from off the pace but lacked any sort of closing kick late and crossed the wire in fifth, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths. The Graded stakes placed runner could be ready for better in his second start back and trainer Greg Geier wins 16% of the non-graded stakes races he has a runner in. In addition, he wins with 14% of his runners shipping to another circuit. Alex Canchari gets the call and he wins 14% of the route races he has a mount in.
10   Voodoo Storm 12/1   Makes the turf to dirt move today after failing as the favorite last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Fair Grounds in which he stalked the pace early but ran out of ground late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by only a neck. Trainer Tim Glyshaw wins with 19% of his runners making the turf to dirt move and with 18% of his runners shipping to another circuit. In addition, he wins 15% of the non-graded stakes races he has a runner in. Norberto Arroyo Jr. gets the call and he wins 18% of the route races he has a mount in.
 

5th JP5 About 1m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo Fillies, Purse: $60,000. 5:28/( 4:28)/ 3:28/ 2:28
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10)
#   Horse ML   Comments
10   Artist Cry 3/1   Filly is by young sire Clever Cry who is a son of good turf sire Street Cry and comes off a win over the course and distance when rallying to remain unbeaten in two lifetime starts on grass. Trainer Wesley Hawley wins with 19% of his runners that won their last start and has won with 20% of his starters at this meet and three-year-old may get a good trip running from just off the pace with James Graham retaining the mount.
8   I Love Cher 9/2   BRIS Prime Power choice comes off a third place finish in her first try on grass here at this distance last month. Daughter of 15% grass sire Big Brown is out of a mare by Sky Classic and is trained by Merrill Scherer who has won with 11% of his starters at this meet. Three-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position early with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
9   Demi's Kitten 8/1   Daughter of 16% grass sire Kitten's Joy won his first two tries on grass and comes off a fifth place finish behind others that return here after a rough trip in his latest. Trainer Patrick Devereux has won with three of his ten starters at this meet and wins with 15% of his runners on grass and three-year-old can be stalking the early leaders with Miguel Mena opting to remain in the saddle.
1   Fifolet 10/1   Three-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when stopping on the main track here last month when making her first start after a short break but may improve on grass being by Stormy Atlantic and out of a mare by Miswaki. Trainer Frank Leggio won with one of his last nine runners first time on turf and has won with 19% of his starters at this meet and filly can be in good position from the start breaking from the rail with Robby Albarado remaining aboard.