Jackpot 5 Analysis - 2/16/2014 - TwinSpires Horse Racing

Jackpot 5 02/16/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 64 Low 54.

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1^st JP5 1m 70 Yards MdnSpWt 3yo Fillies, Purse: $45,000. 3:55/( 2:55)/ 1:55/12:55 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 4-5-6) / Daily Double
#	Horse	ML	Comments
5	Samantha Nicole	8/5	Newcomer by 11% first out sire Medaglia d'Oro is a full sister to Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and will debut for trainer Steve Asmussen who wins with 12% of his runners making their first start at a distance of a mile or longer. Three-year-old, who cost $700K as a weanling, worked five furlongs in 1:00 here earlier this month for Asmussen who has won with 20% of his runners at this meet and filly can be ready for a winning effort at first asking with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
6	Handmade	5/2	Daughter Candy Ride is first on BRIS Prime Power and earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when second at this distance last month in her second career start. Trainer Neil Howard wins with 11% of his runners in maiden special weight events and has won with 15% of his starters at this meet and filly can be running from off the pace with Robby Albarado remaining aboard.
3	Partyinslowmotion	4/1	Daughter of 11% first out sire Bernardini is a half sister to Grade One winner Sutra and will debut for trainer Mike Stidham who wins with 13% of his first time starters. Stidham has won with 14% of his runners at this meet and three-year-old has been working steadily and could be a contender under James Graham who won with 18% of is rides for the barn in the past 60 days.

2^nd JP5 About 1m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3&4&5yo's, Purse: $45,000. 4:25/( 3:25)/ 2:25/ 1:25 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / Daily Double
#	Horse	ML	Comments
7	Gentleman's Honor	15/1	Son of A P Indy is out of a Grade Two winner who is the dam of Grade Three scorer Machen and comes off a second place finish on the main track here last month when earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race. Gelding finished second in one of his two previous tries on grass and will make his third start for trainer David Carroll who wins with 11% of his runners on turf and who has won with 11% of his starters at this meet. Dark bay can be running from off the pace with Leandro Goncalves retaining the mount.
1	Call Me West	12/1	Son of 12% grass sire Tapit is out of a Grade Three placed mare and was last seen when closing some while sixth on the main track here over a year ago in her first start since finishing fourth in her debut on this turf course. Trainer Wayne Catalano wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and has won with 12% of his starters at this meet and colt can be running late under Florent Geroux who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
2	Mutasaawy	5/1	Four-year-old comes off a fourth place finish on the main track here last month in his second start after a short break and hit the board in all three of his previous starts on grass. Son of Tapit is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current Class and is from the barn of Dan Peitz who wins with 14% of his runners on grass and who has won with 19% of his starters at this meet. Colt can be running into contention from off the pace with Robby Albarado in the saddle.
6	Run With Honor	3/1	Colt will make his first start on grass and was last seen when narrowly defeated on the main track last month after being prominent from the start in his seventh career start. Trainer Larry Jones wins with 14% of his runners making their turf debut and has won with 30% of his starters at this meet and son of 12% turf sire Any Given Saturday can be on or near the lead from the start with Kerwin Clark in the irons.

3^rd JP5 6f MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $57,000. 4:46/( 3:46)/ 2:46/ 1:46 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 6-7-8),50 Cent Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#	Horse	ML	Comments
9	Taylor's Moonbeam	4/1	Last started back in April when she put in a very nice effort while facing this level of competition here in which she took the lead early before tiring a bit late to cross the wire in second, beaten by two lengths. The BRIS Speed rating she posted in that effort stands out in this spot and she has been working very well for her return. Trainer Donna Cline wins with 17% of her runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days.
4	Razorback Rocket	7/2	Makes her first start since back in August when she put in a nice effort while facing maiden special weight competition in her career debut at Prairie Meadows in which she stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 1 3/4 lengths. The filly has been working well for her return and trainer W. T. Howard wins with 14% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days.
8	Kelly Belly Kid	9/2	Adds the blinkers today in her second career start after putting in a respectable effort here last out at this level in which she rallied from nine lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in sixth, beaten by 4 1/4 lengths. Trainer Paul Holthus has been red hot for the meet thus far and he will have Jon Court in the irons who he has combined with for a 40% win rate over the last 60 days.

4^th JP5 1m 70 Yards MdnClm $10,000 3yo Fillies, Purse: $14,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 6-10)
#	Horse	ML	Comments
3	Mary Lou Who Who	8/5	BRIS Prime Power selection earned top ranking on Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when third in the grass here in late December in her debut behind subsequent repeat winner Artist's Cry. Daughter of Porto Foricos is also first on Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Bret Calhoun who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 23% of his second time starters. Filly can be running from just off the pace with Marcelino Pedroza retaining the mount.
8	Deb's Gal	7/2	Filly earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when fourth at this level over five furlongs here last month in her third career outing. Daughter of Decibel posted a four furlong work in 49 4/5 four days ago for trainer James Hodges who won with 14% of his runners since the beginning of last year and three-year-old can be forwardly placed from the start with James Graham in the saddle.
5	Ziva Diva	5/1	Stablemate of the top selection comes off a fourth place finish at this level over five and a half furlongs last month after a wide trip from an outside post and is a half sister to three winners. Daughter of Belong To Me has hit the board in two of her six career starts and will make her third start for Calhoun who wins with 16% of his runners going a route for the first time. Dark bay could show early speed under Leandro Goncalves who won with three of his last five rides for the barn.

5^th JP5 6fAlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up, Purse: $59,000. 5:14/( 4:14)/ 3:14/ 2:14 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#	Horse	ML	Comments
1A	Ammaroo	2/1	Has run well in both starts since being claimed and move into the barn of trainer Federico Villafrano and exits a very nice effort last out while facing starter allowance competition in which he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by seven lengths while posting a 103 BRIS Speed rating. Villafranco wins with 22% of his runners next out after winning their start prior and 17% of the allowance races he has a runner in. David Mello gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 44% win rate over the last 60 days.
7	Windsurfer	5/1	Moves into the barn of trainer Chris Hartman in his first start back from the layoff after having not started since back in April when he put in a disappointing performance while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Aqueduct in which he stalked the pace early before fading to finish a well beaten fifth. Hartman wins with 20% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and with an equal percentage of runners making their first start out of his barn. Ken Tohill gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 29% win rate over the last 60 days.
4	Captain Genius	4/1	Jumps up in class in his second start back from the layoff and since being claimed and moved into the barn of trainer Brad Cox. The dark bay exits a nice effort last out while facing $30,000 competition in which he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by a length. A repeat of the BRIS Speed rating he posted in that effort would make him a threat in this spot and trainer Brad Cox wins with 28% of his runners next out after winning their start prior. In addition, he wins with 22% of his runners making their second start off the layoff. Israel Ocampo gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 17% win rate over the last 60 days.