Jackpot 5 Analysis - 3/08/2014


Jackpot 5 03/08/2014



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1st JP5 1m MdnClm $25,000 4&5yo's, Purse: $13,700. ( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30/ 1:30
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Gun Carriage 5/2   Prime Power second from the barn of Juan Rodriguez drops back down after trying special weight foes in advance of this and is a logical inclusion to kick off this sequence. Gelded son of Harlan's Holiday was a nice second here two back against better in his first run since last spring, and he could be peaking third off the layoff in this spot with Boraco staying along to ride. Virginia-bred has flashed speed in his last pair and will likely be on or prompting the pace from the start. Lots to like.
4   Full Ride 9/5   Prime Power boss drops down from the $35,000 level at Gulfstream and had faced special weight foes in his previous 10 lifetime runs. Bay son of top sire Tapit has run second in both tries on this main oval, against better obviously, and he could have needed his latest when making his 2014 bow. Manny Estevez pupil is kin to a pair of winners from three to race and goes for a consistent barn with a 14% win rate at the maiden claiming level. Must be on the ticket with Luca Panici in the silks.
1   Discreet Ed 4/1   Five-year-old son of Discreet Cat goes turf to dirt after running on the green at Gulfstream Park last time, and the Navarro trainee could graduate in this one if he takes to this main oval from a nice slot on the rail. Gelded Florida-bred was fourth on this oval two back but gets a pass for that one off the 16 month layoff, and he goes out for a conditioner who is thriving here at a 30% win rate. Kin to five winners from six to race, the bay could be forwardly placed some from this slot and is worth using for sure.
 

2nd JP5 6f MdnSpWt 3yo Fillies, Purse: $60,000. 5:09/( 4:09)/ 3:09/ 2:09
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Hasilah 3/1   Showed a nice early turn of foot here last out in her career debut but faded badly in the end to cross the wire in seventh, beaten by seven lengths. The BRIS Speed rating she posted in that effort is good enough to compete here and she is capable of better second time out. Trainer Daniel Peitz wins with 14% of his runners making their second career start and 15% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in. Channing Hill gets the call and he wins 14% of the sprints he has a mount in.
11   Pink Lipgloss 12/1   Put in disappointing performances in each of her first two career starts while facing maiden special weight competition on the inner at Aqueduct but she has been working respectably for her return and trainer Steve Asmussen wins with 21% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days. In addition, he wins 18% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call.
2   Costamar 7/2   Returns from the layoff after having not started since back in January when he put in a bit of a disappointing effort here in which she took the lead out of the gate before tiring a bit late to cross the wire in fourth, beaten by 5 1/4 lengths. A repeat of that effort will make her a player in this spot and she tops the field in BRIS Prime Power. Trainer Jeff Bonde wins with 14% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days and 18% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in.
3   Delta Flower 10/1   Exits a respectable effort here while facing state-bred maidens in her career debut in which she stalked the pace early before fading to cross the wire in third, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. A repeat of that effort will make her a player in this spot and she is capable of better second time out. Terry Thompson gets the call and he wins 16% of the sprints he has a mount in.
 

3rd JP5 6f Non-graded 4yo and up, Purse: $100,000. 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38
First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Apprehender 2/1   Put in a nice effort here last out while facing stakes competition in his first start back from the layoff in which he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by three parts of a length. The gelding was making his first start since last spring when he put in back to back dull efforts here but he had been in much better form prior and, if his latest is any indication, he could be back in that form. Trainer Chris Richard wins 23% of the time with runners making their second start off the layoff and 27% of the time with runners next out after winning their start prior. David Mello gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 40% win rate over the last 60 days.
7   Work All Week 5/2   Has visited the winner's circle in eight of his last nine starts and missed by only a nose on the other occasion. The gelding will be making his first start since back in January when he put in a very nice effort here while facing allowance/optional claiming competition in which he vied for the lead throughout and finished well late to claim the victory by a length. A repeat of that performance will make him a threat in this spot and trainer Roger Brueggemann wins with 23% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days. In addition, he wins with 25% of his runners next out after winning their start prior. Christopher Emigh gets the call and he wins 18% of the sprints he has a mount in.
2   Alsvid 3/1   Could be ready for better in his second start back from the layoff after failing as the favorite as half of the coupled entry here last out in his first start back from the layoff in an effort where he rallied from 3 1/2 lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten a half length by Apprehender. A repeat of that performance would make him a contender in this spot and he is capable of better in his second start back. Trainer Chris Hartman wins 23% of the time with runners making their second start off the layoff and 28% of the time with runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Ken Tohill gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 23% win rate over the last 60 days.
 

4th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) Alw 4yo and up, Purse: $41,900. 5:55/( 4:55)/ 3:55/ 2:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
1A   Run Right At It 2/1   BRIS Prime Power selection was unplaced in two previous starts on grass but should like the surface being by 14% grass sire Mizzen Mast and out of a mare by Zamindar and comes off a narrow loss on the main track here last month when earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race. Gelding is also first on Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Louie Roussel who wins with 18% of his starters on turf and who has won with 29% of his runners at this meet. Five-year-old has tactical speed and can be on or near the lead from the start with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
1   Western Elegance 2/1   Son of 16% grass sire English Channel is a stablemate of the top selection and has not been seen since finishing second on the main track at Hawthorne in October. Four-year-old finished second in both of his two previous starts on grass for Roussel who wins with 11% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Chestnut posted a four furlong work in 47 2/5 five days ago and can be forwardly placed from the start under James Graham who won with three of his last eight mounts for Roussel.
6   Rightous Party 9/2   Gelding earned joint top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when second at this level over the course and distance after setting the early fractions last month when making his first start since being claimed by Scotty McNair. Son of Officer has hit the board in all three of his starts on grass and McNair won with one of his last six runners second time off the claim. Four-year-old can be part of a fast early pace here with Richard Eramia retaining the mount.
5   Highroller Dave 5/1   Dark bay will make his first start since returning to the barn of Tom Amoss and was last seen when fourth here at this level over the course and distance last month in his second start on grass. Amoss wins with 22% of his runners on turf and has won with 27% of his starters at this meet and five-year-old has some tactical speed and can be stalking the early leaders under Leandro Goncalves who won with two of his last eleven rides for the barn.
 

5th JP5 1m Clm $12,500 4yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 6:09/( 5:09)/ 4:09/ 3:09
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Flyin Trey 5/2   Drops in class in his third start back from the layoff after putting in a solid effort last out while facing $20,000 competition in which he took the lead out of the gate before tiring late to cross the wire in third, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths. Trainer Cody Autrey wins 18% of the claiming races he has a runner in and 17% of the route races. Norberto Arroyo Jr. gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 23% win rate over the last 60 days.
1   Biker Boy 9/2   Returned from the layoff here last out with a nice effort while facing $10,000 competition in which he rallied from 5 1/2 lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by three parts of a length. The gelding was claimed out of that effort and will be making his first start today for trainer Kenny Smith who wins 17% of the time first off the claim. The bay tops the field in BRIS Prime Power.
11   Zenaro 5/1   Makes the turf to dirt move today in his first start since being moved into the barn of trainer Chris Hartman after putting in a solid effort last out while facing $16,000 competition at Turf Paradise in which he vied for the lead throughout but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by only a neck. Hartman wins 24% of the time with runners making the turf to dirt move and 23% of the time with runners shipping to another circuit.
9   Omniscient 5/1   Continues to drop in class in search of a win and may have found a level where he fits well today after putting in a disappointing effort last out while facing $20,000 competition in which he stalked the pace early before fading late to cross the wire in fifth, beaten by 4 1/4 lengths. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins 25% of the claiming races he has a runner in and 21% of the route races. Ricardo Sanatana Jr. gets the call.