Jackpot 5 Analysis for Friday, October 4

Jackpot 5 10/04/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $52,500. ( 3:52)/ 2:52/ 1:52/12:52
First Half Late Daily Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta,.20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
# HorseML   Comments
5  Pugsley7/2  Win contender made a big late run to just miss in his first with blinkers last time and looms a big chance in this one for trainer Robert Barnett. Gelded son of Mobil is a winner on the oval for a conditioner at 23% at the meeting, and his last pair of races on this main oval have been huge. Patrick Husbands will ride and likely be placed near midpack atop this one in the early going.
7  Iroquois Falls2/1  Recent maiden winner finally broke through after being second in the prior pair of outings and could win right back with the fine form he is in since adding Lasix three prior. Son of Niigon earned a big Late Pace figure in showing a nice turn of foot most recently and lands in a field where a lot of these have been stuck at this level for some time. Trainer Paul Attard is 22% with a maiden winner last time out and the Prime Power leader looks like a logical inclusion.
1  Dragon Puff8/1  Gelded son of Peaks and Valleys has speed and the rail in a field lacking a ton of pace, and we think he could be a player at a price this afternoon. A maiden winner on this oval four prior, the sophomore has been running long on the lawn and should be plenty fit for this one for a conditioner who is 14% with all weather runners and 13% here at Woodbine. Tyler Pizarro will ride and could be alone early on. Chance.

2nd JP5 6f Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $200,000. ( 4:49)/ 3:49/ 2:49/ 1:49
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
# HorseML   Comments
10  Ghost Is Clear12/1  Five-year-old has a record of 6-1-2-0 on all-weather tracks and comes off a win at Churchill in September when closing from off the pace in his first start after a short break. Son of excellent synthetic surface sire Ghostzapper is trained by Mike Maker who wins with 26% of his runners that won their last start and with 24% switching from regular to articial dirt and gelding can be along late with Rosie Napravnik retaining the mount.
6  Laugh Track12/1  Four-year-old has a record of 5-4-1-0 on all-weather surfaces and was last seen when winning a Grade Three over seven furlongs at Woodbine in early June. Colt's recent works include a five furlong move in 59 2/5 late last month for trainer Mark Casse who wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and who wins with 21% that won their last start. Son of Distorted Humor won his one previous start on this track and can get a good trip from just off the pace here with Miguel Mena in the saddle.
7  Gentlemen's Bet3/1  Son of Half Ours has not been seen since finishing third in a Grade One at Saratoga in early August after dueling for the early lead while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race. Four-year-old is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and will make his first start on a synthetic surface for trainer Ron Moquett who has won with 15% of his runenrs this meet. Colt has early speed and can be part of a fast pace with Mike Smith to ride.
8  Go Blue Or Go Home8/1  Winner of two of his three starts on all weather tracks was last seen when fourth in a Grade Two at Woodbine in late August in his first start after a short break. Trainer Reade Baker wins with 13% of his runners in graded stakes and has won with 20% of his starters since the beginning of the year and son of Bluegrass Cat has speed and can be forwardly placed from the start under Paco Lopez.

3rd JP5 7f MdnClm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $22,000. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta
# HorseML   Comments
8  I Wear the Pants3/1  Prime Power queen, top pick and horse to beat has been running pretty well at the special weight level in advance of this and looms a huge chance with her best on the drop in with claimers this day. Catherine Day-Phillips trained daughter of Tomahawk has four winning siblings from as many to race, and has good tactical foot that should have her well placed from the start from a good post position. Lone concern is this barn is just 1-for-25 with this type of drop, though. Jessie Campbell rides.
6  Westshore Road6/1  Four-year-old filly just missed most recently with the return of blinkers back on and finished more than four lengths clear of third in a fine result in advance of this. Daughter of Philanthropist is kin to a winner from two to race, and while she is not easy to back with total confidence having failed 12 times to date, the equipment change might have done the trick, and she has improved early foot with the hood on. Justin Stein has the call.
1  Charlies Mist12/1  Second timer from the barn of James Hutchison showed brief speed on top before gradually fading in a debut run here, but that was with special weight foes and the drop to the claiming ranks could be a nice move for the win contender. Bay filly took a bit of money in that first run and we like the sophomore getting the rail post to possibly speed out nearly, following a debut that looked more like a prep than anything. Matt Moore rides.
4  Optimism4/1  Gray daughter of Smooth Bid made a big move into the lane and just missed most recently at this level, and she comes in fresh off the two-month break today for conditioner Carlos Grant, 11% in the maiden claiming ranks. Sophomore filly is the first out of this dam and really appreciated the drop from the special weight ranks last time, improving a lot, and she wouldn't be a big surprise even though she lacks consistency to this point. Luis Contreras has the assignment.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Grade I 2yo Fillies, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21/ 2:21
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
# HorseML   Comments
7  My Conquestadory3/1  $240K purchase earlier this year broke her maiden in the Grade Two Summer Stakes on turf against colts in her debut in mid-September while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race. Dark bay is also first on Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Mark Casse who wins with 13% of his runners in graded stakes and who has won with 19% of his starters since the beginning of the year. Filly has the pedigree to handle the surface and can get a good trip stalking the early leaders from a decent post with Eurico Da Silva coming in to ride.
1  Designer Legs10/1  Daughter of Graeme Hall may not have cared for the sloppy track at Saratoga when virtually eased in her latest when making her first start since being awarded the Adirondack Stakes after closing to narrowly miss. Chestnut will make her third start for Dallas Stewart who wins with 16% of his runners going a route for the first time and filly has some speed and can be a factor from the start breaking from the rail with Shaun Bridgmohan remaining aboard.
3  Sweetsoutherndame20/1  Filly is by promising freshman sire Colonel John and comes off a second place finish in the Arlington Washington Lassie last month after starting from a wide post. Trainer Tim Hamm has won with 18% of his runners since the beginnnig of the year and bay has a record of 4-1-2-0 on all-weather tracks and can be a factor from just off the pace starting from a better post with Pablo Morales up.
2  Richies Party Girl4/1  Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when just lasting to win over a mile on grass at Churchill last month after leading from the start in her first start since finishing fourth in a Group Three in France. Daughter of Any Given Saturday is trained by Wesley Ward who wins with 29% of his runners switching from turf to an all-weather surface and $30K yearling purchase looks fastest early here and likely the one to catch with John Velazquez up.

5th JP5 6f Clm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $17,000. ( 5:53)/ 4:53/ 3:53/ 2:53
Exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)-keenelandselect.com Super High,five($1 min)
# HorseML   Comments
5  Emerald Crescent3/1  BRIS Prime Power selection won his one previous start on the Keeneland main track and comes off a third place finish in a starter allowance at Presque Isle last month when making his second start afer a short break. Trainer Michael Papparda wins with 11% of his runners in claiming races and gelding, who is also first on Current and Average Class Last 3 can get a good trip from just off hte pace with Ron Allen retaining the mount.
12  Eye of the Eagle4/1  Dark bay takes a slight drop in class off an unplaced effort over a mile and a sixteenth at Presque Isle last month and has won ten of his thirty lifetime starts on synthetic tracks. Gelding will make his second start since being claimed by Tevis McCauley who wins with 33% of his runners dropping one class and who has won with 25% of his starters this year and six-year-old can be running from off the pace with Norberto Arroyo riding.
8  Truly Amazing10/1  Gray won one of his eight previous starts on the Keeneland Polytrack and comes off a second place finish against easier at Presque Isle last month. Trainer Joe Cheeks won with two of his last ten runners moving up two classes and has won with 17% of his starters since the beginning of the year and eight-year-old can be making late progress with Harry Vega aboard.
10  Stormin Larry15/1  Gelding has not been seen since fading after showing early speed here in April but is trained by Larry Demeritte who wins with 13% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Demeritte wins with 11% of his claimers and son of Storm Boot can be prominent early with apprentice Santo Sanjur in the saddle.