Jackpot 5 Analysis for Saturday, November 30


Jackpot 5 11/30/2013



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1st JP5 1m (Turf) MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $41,000. ( 3:35)/ 2:35/ 1:35/12:35
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
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8  Mizzen Miss7/2  Has hit the board in both career starts thus far and moves to the grass today after putting in a solid effort last out on the main track in which she stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Sire MIZZEN MAST produces 14% winners on the grass and trainer Bernard Flint wins with 14% of his runners making their first start on the grass. The gray tops the field in BRIS Prime Power.
9  Smart Ashley3/1  Put in solid efforts at Keeneland in both starts since moving to the grass and exits a nice performance last out in which she rallied from seven lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in third, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths. Trainer George Arnold has had success in both turf and maiden special weight races.
2  Tiz Windy8/1  Moves to the grass today after putting in a solid effort last out on the dirt in her third career start in which she finished third, beaten by 4 3/4 lengths. The filly possesses a respectable pedigree for the grass and trainer Carl Nafzger wins with 25% of his runners making their first start on the grass.
1A  Freethinker6/1  Moves to the grass in her second career start after putting in a disappointing effort in her career debut on the main track in which she finished fourth, beaten by 14 lengths. The bay possesses a solid pedigree for the grass as EMPIRE MAKER produces 14% winners on the lawn while dam sire A. P. INDY has produced 13% winners on the grass.
 

2nd JP5 7f MdnSpWt 2yo, Purse: $41,000. ( 4:05)/ 3:05/ 2:05/ 1:05
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),pick 5 (8-9-10-11-12)
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8  Spirit of Freedom7/2  Put in a solid performance last out in his career debut in which he attempted to rally from five lengths off the pace but was no match for the winner late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths as the favorite. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins with 27% of his runners making their second career start and with 16% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Corey Lanerie gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 18% win rate over the last 60 days.
10  Long Station5/2  Adds the bleeder today while going from a route to a sprint after putting in a solid effort last out in which he pressed the pace early before fading to cross the wire in fourth, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek wins with 17% of his runners adding the bleeder for the first time and with 13% of his runners going from a route to a sprint. Robby Albarado gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 13% win rate over the last 60 days.
4  Bourbonize15/1  Possesses a solid win early pedigree, especially on the sire side as TIZ WONDERFUL produces 20% first out winners. The gelding has been working both steadily and well leading up to his career debut and could be ready to roll first out. Trainer Kellyn Gorder wins with 16% of his runners making their debut versus maiden special weight competition. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the call and he wins 18% of the sprints he has a mount in.
1  Doubly Distinct5/1  Loses the blinkers in his second career start after putting in a respectable performance in his career debut in which he pressed the pace early, took the lead, and then tired late to cross the wire in fourth, beaten by 1 3/4 lengths. Trainer Steve Hobby wins with 18% of his runners taking the "peeps" off and with 24% of his runners making their second career start. In addition, he wins 14% of the maiden special weight races he has a runner in.
 

3rd JP5 About 1m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $46,000. 4:26/( 3:26)/ 2:26/ 1:26
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 6-10)
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11  Primo7/2  Dark bay is first on BRIS Prime Power and was last seen when leading from start to finish over a mile on the main track at Arlington on mid-September and has a record of 12-4-2-0 lifetime on grass. Son of 12% turf sire Proud Citizen won his one previous start on the Fair Grounds turf course and posted a five furlong work at Keeneland in 1:00 4/5 earlier this month for trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 19% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gelding has early speed and can be on near the lead from the start under Florent Geroux who won with one of his last five rides for the barn.
8  Mongol Boss6/1  Son of excellent young turf sire Street Boss was eased on the main track at Keeneland in his latest but has a record of 4-1-1-1 on grass. Three-year-old is trained by Mike Maker who wins with 20% of his starters on turf and who has won with 23% of his runners since the beginning of the year and dark bay can show more with the surface switch under Rosie Napravnik who rode the gelding to win at Kentucky Downs two starts back.
9  Barzini9/2  Son of Tiznow was last seen when fifth on the main track at Keeneland in early Octover and has won two of his seven lifetime starts on grass. Dark bay is also from the barn of Mike Maker who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 20% of his starters on turf and four-year-old has tactical speed and can be near the front from the start under Chris Landeros but previous rider Napravnik goes with the barn's other entrant here.
7  Wilcox5/1  Four-year-old has a record of 6-2-1-0 on grass and was last seen when unplaced on the main track at Woodbine last month in his first start after a short break. Trainer Josie Carroll wins with 12% of her runners on grass and has won with 22% of her starters overall this year and son of 13% grass sire Giant's Causeway can be closing into contention from off the pace with Leadro Goncalves in the irons.
 

4th JP5 1mAlwOClm $75,000 2yo, Purse: $43,000. ( 5:05)/ 4:05/ 3:05/ 2:05
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 10-11-12)
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9  Son of Dixie6/1  Made the synthetic to dirt move here last out while facing maiden special weight competition in which he stalked the pace early and finished well late to claim the victory by a neck. Trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 20% of his runners next out after breaking their maiden in the start prior and with 15% of his runners making their first attempt at a route. Miguel Mena gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 41% win rate over the last 60 days.
5  Angry Moon4/1  Stretches out to a route in his second start back from the layoff after putting in a solid effort last out while facing maiden special weight competition in which he rallied from three lengths off the pace and finished well late to claim the victory by a half length. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins with 17% of his runners making their first attempt at a route and with 18% of his runners making their second start off the layoff. Julien Leparoux gets the call and he wins 16% of the route races he has a mount in.
12  Conquest Titan3/1  Tackles allowance/optional claiming competition today after putting in dull efforts while tackling Graded stakes competition in each of his last two starts with his latest coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in which he finished up the track. Trainer Mark Casse wins 18% of the allowance races he has a runner in and 20% of the two-year-old races. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the call and he wins 21% of the route races he has a mount in.
11  Legend Forever6/1  Stretches out to a route in his second start back from the layoff after putting in a nice effort last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Hawthorne in which he rallied from 6 1/2 lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by three lengths. The gelding posted a BRIS Speed rating that would make him a threat in this spot and trainer Chris Richard wins with 17% of his runners going from a sprint to a route.
 

5th JP5 1 1/16m Clm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $24,000. ( 5:30)/ 4:30/ 3:30/ 2:30
Second Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Jackpot Hi5
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2  Sly Aspios3/1  Bay son of Purge drops down after running evenly for $20,000 last time and looms large with a top showing. Three-year-old gelding from the Gracey barn can really run on his best days, proven by a daylight score versus $25,000 three back, and the sophomore has been first or second in 5 of 10 lifetime tries on this oval. Barn is a solid 29% down two or more class levels of this nature, and regular rider Baher stays to guide the Prime Power 3rd. Could be motoring home after saving ground early on.
11  Smooth Charlie10/1  Prime Power leading son of Smooth Air looks to be an overlay in the morning line and will be tough in this one for conditioner Carlos Grant, 21% with a beaten favorite last time out. Sophomore colt ran evenly as the choice last time but was a huge second in with similar two prior, and he has the right running style for this race to get the jump on the late runners with his positional speed. Emma Jayne will guide the win player, and we give him a big shot.
9  Northern Bluebird4/1  Darwin Banach trainee was well back at first but came roaring home in a fine try at this level last time, finishing second to a sharp winner. Chestnut colt by Northern Afleet is in very good form with a win and a second in his last pair and goes for a smart barn which is 23% at this meeting. Kentucky-bred has also working well this time of year on this main oval and he's versatile enough to overcome this post. Chance under Sheena Ryan.