Jackpot 5 Analysis for Saturday, October 5

Jackpot 5 10/05/2013


1st JP5 1 1/16m Non-graded 3yo and up Colts and/or Geldings, Purse: $85,000. ( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06/ 1:06
Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta,50 Cent Pick 3 (races 6-7-8)
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7  Needmore Cash8/1  Gelded son of Saintly Look comes into this race with fine form with a win and a second in the allowance ranks and a slight move forward will put the sophomore right there in the lane. Indy-bred has not fared all that well when facing stakes foes in the past but needs to be given another chance as his best races match up pretty well here, and his fine tactical speed is also a plus. Greenhill barn is 23% in the stakes ranks -- blinkers have made a huge improvement for the three-year-old.
9  Pass the Crown5/2  Consistent sort from the Roberts barn nearly always fires, especially on this oval, and makes a lot of sense in here. Dark bay son of Pass Rush stretches out after mainly sprinting in advance of this but is a winner at the trip and the gelding has finished in the top three in 10 of 11 lifetime runs on this main oval. Marlon St Julien will ride and likely have this one pretty close from the start.
5  Dread the Pirate9/2  Stakes winning Prime Power leader is a very talented runner in pretty good form and could try to lead this field all the way on the front end as the inside pace of the pace. David Paulus trainee was a game third last time in a sprint stakes here and will stretch out, but we think he is more than capabler of getting this trip, having finished a big third a few back at two turns. Albin Jimenez will ride and he could be tough to run down if left alone early on.
6  Unreachable Star5/1  Defending champ of this race comes into this race with questionable form on paper, but we think he has some excuses and gets a look at a price in here. Nine-year-old gelding from the productive Glyshaw barn is a sharp 5-for-10 on this main oval and ran fairly well late in a sprint prep for this, finishing eighth but only by three lengths, for an outfit at 15% going sprint to route. Malcolm Franklin has the assignment and will likely be stalking the early pace in here.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m Grade I 2yo, Purse: $400,000. ( 4:55)/ 3:55/ 2:55/ 1:55
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-pick 3($.50 min)(races,8-9-10)-superfecta($.10 min)
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6  Solitary Ranger6/1  Son of freshman sire U S Ranger is first on BRIS Current and Average Class Last 3 and comes off a five and a half length maiden breaking win in the Arlington Washington Futurity last month despite running slightly green in his first start since April. $28K yearling purchase posted a five furlong work here in 59 seconds flat in late September for trainer Wayne Catalano who wins with 20% of his runners second off a layoff and with 21% that won their last start and colt has shown tactical speed and should get a good trip from the start with Florent Geroux retaining the mount.
2  Kendall's Boy4/1  BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a five and a quarter maiden breaking win at Churchill over six furlongs in mid-September after showing speed from the start in his second career outing. Son of Sky Mesa posted a five furlong work in 1:00 4/5 here for trainer Tom Amoss who wins with 20% of his runners going a route for the first time and who has won with 31% of his starters since the beginning of the year. Colt may be fastest early here and the one to catch with Garrett Gomez riding.
9  Conquest Titan6/1  Colt cost $475K earlier this year and comes off an easy gate-to-wire maiden breaking win in a stakes at Woodbine over seven furlongs in August in his second career start and his first after a short break. Trainer Mark Casse wins with 21% of his runners going a route for the first time and with 13% of his starters in graded stakes and son of Birdstone has early speed but may run from just off the pace here with Eurico Da Silva retaining the mount.
1  Intense Holiday8/1  Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when leading from the start to break his maiden at Monmouth in late August when making his second career start. Son of Harlan's Holiday cost $380K as a yearling and is trained by Todd Pletcher who wins with 23% of his runners in graded stakes and with 26% that broke their maiden in their last start and colt can be on or near the lead from the start breaking from the rail with Chris Decarli remaining aboard.

3rd JP5 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $750,000. ( 5:30)/ 4:30/ 3:30/ 2:30
Double-exacta-trifecta($.50 min)-superfecta($.10 min)
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10  Wise Dan2/5  Reigning Horse of the Year has reeled off nine straight wins on grass and earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when easily winning the Woodbine Mile in mid-September. Son of Wiseman's Ferry has won two of his three starts on the Keeneland turf course for trainer Charles LoPresti who has been winning with 43% of his runners in graded stakes and who has won with 22% of his starters overall this year. Chestnut will have to overcome a slightly tricky outside post but has tactical speed that should allow rider John Velazquez to get the six-year-old in good position from the start.
9  Silver Max6/1  Four-year-old has won nine of his sixteen lifetime starts on grass including one of two on this turf and comes off a gate-to-wire victory at Saratoga in late August. Trainer Dale Romans wins with 15% of his runners in graded stakes and has won with 15% of his starters overall this year and son of 15% grass sire Badge of Silver looks fastest early in here and can be the one to catch with Robby Albarado retaining the mount.
5  Summer Front20/1  Son of exceptional turf sire War Front comes off a win at Monmouth in late August in his first start after a four month break and has a record of 11-7-0-3 on grass. Four-year-old is trained by Christophe Clement who wins with 19% of his runners second time off a layoff and who has won with 20% of his starters this year. Colt has dangerous late acceleration and can be a contender with Joe Bravo remaining aboard.
6  Willcox Inn15/1  Dark bay closed late to finish second to Wise Dan in this event twelve months ago and was last seen when winning on the main track at Arlington in late August in his first start after a short break. Trainer Mike Stidham wins with 12% of his runners in graded stakes and has won with 20% of his starters since the beginning of 2013 and son of 11% grass sire Harlan's Holiday can be running late at a chance for a share under regular rider James Graham.

4th JP5 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo Fillies, Purse: $200,000. ( 6:05)/ 5:05/ 4:05/ 3:05
Oaks-derby Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta,10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 10-11-12)
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2  Fiftyshadesofhay1/1  Morning-line choice and one to beat from the Baffert barn is the class of this race and will be very tough with something close to her best performance. Sophomore daughter of Pulpit is a three-time graded winner in 2013 and is as consistent as any, missing the board just once in her last ten starts, most against top notch foes. Prime Power queen comes in a bit fresh after a fine second behind soon to be champion Princess of Sylmar in the Alabama (G1), and she has trained very well since for an outfit that is at 31% with shippers. Formidable with Martin Garcia coming along to ride her.
3  Fully Living8/1  Bay filly by Unbridled's Song has been going well in three outing since joining the barn of Rusty Arnold, and was a fine stakes second at Monmouth last time. Bay sophomore has been running in one-turn races mostly in advance of this but is bred to run long and we think she could be a major factor in this field today as the Prime Power 3rd. Kentucky-bred has early foot and might be sent early on under the guidance of Brian Hernandez. We'd include this one in the sequence as a possible separator from the rest.
6  Seaneen Girl9/2  Chestnut filly by Spring at Last was a dominant winner of the Monmouth Oaks (G3) two back prior to running in the deep Cotillion (G1) last time, and the class relief should be a big help today. Two-time graded heroine was a solid and well beaten second behind our top pick in this race a few starts back and we know she is better than her latest when facing a lot better, so we will toss her in as well for conditioner Bernie Flint. Expect the sophomore to do her best work approaching the into the turn for home.
7  Pure Fun3/1  Grade 1 queen from the McPeek barn makes her first run since not firing in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and the filly with back class could be a real player in this field if fit off of works. Daughter of Pure Prize is proven capable on dirt with a 9-length allowance win at Churchill last campaign and we like the placement in here after some fine morning moves in preparation of this race. Victor Lebron rides for a barn at 17% with this type of layoff.

5th JP5 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo, Purse: $500,000. ( 6:50)/ 5:50/ 4:50/ 3:50
Late Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta,10 Cent Superfecta
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8  Holy Lute12/1  Lightly raced son of Midnight Lute was all heart in holding off a proven class runner last time at Del Mar in the El Cajon S., and we will take a shot with this sophomore shipping in from the West Coast. James Cassidy pupil has won two straight in fine fashion following a good third to kick off his career, and the gray seems to be handling the dirt well if his :58 and change morning drill at Santa Anita is any indication. Barn 21% with a winner last time and we think it's encouraging that David Flores ships in to ride.
9  Uncaptured9/2  Canadian classic winner was an even third in the Smarty Jones (G3) at Parx last time and could vault forward in this spot for Mark Casse. Dark bay son of Lion Heart is a talented and versatile sort who runs anywhere on anything and shows a pair of swift bullet moves at Churchill in preparation of this for a high percentage barn that knows how to spot runners. Dark bay has very good positional speed and should never be that far back in the early going under regular pilot Miguel Mena.
6  Power Broker3/1  Horse to beat from the Baffert barn makes his first run since being second in the Haskell (G1) behind a virtuoso performance by the winner, and this Grade 1 victor makes a lot of sense in this spot under Martin Garcia. Chestnut son of Pulpit has trained quite well leading up to this and while he didn't run well while fresh last time, he surely had excuses for that and he has been much sharper since. Baffert is deadly with shippers and this jockey/trainer combo is 22% as of late. Must use but worth trying to beat in a tough field.
2  Mr Palmer10/1  Sneaky win player from the Mott barn showed nice progression this spring and comes in here since finishing fourth in the Wood (G1), behind a very accomplished top three. Another son of Pulpit on this card, the three-year-old colt has a nice turn of foot and could pop a big one for a trainer at 21% off of this type of layoff. Solid works coming in, wouldn't be a shock.