Jackpot 5 Analysis for Saturday, September 7

Jackpot 5 09/07/2013


1st JP5 1m Grade III 2yo, Purse: $150,000. 5:06/( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9),$0.50 Pick 5 (races 7-11) (15% takeout)
# HorseML   Comments
4  Solitary Ranger7/2  Wayne Catalano trainee showed a lot of ability in a pair of seconds behind some fleet ones at Keeneland, and he comes in fresh with this aggressive placement today for a barn rolling at this meeting. April foal is bred to run a mile and has trained so well leading up to this that we feel inclined to land here in this wide open field with Geroux in the silks.
7  Captains Affair5/1  Team Valor import will make his U. S. debut in this spot and has to be on the ticket as a wildcard. Chestnut colt by Captain Rio was a debut winner on the lawn prior to being unplaced last time in a subsequent stakes run, and the Irish bred goes for a barn in Rick Mettee that is 24% with shippers. We love that these connections will get Mike Smith to ride, and we give this one a big shot, especially if he’s live on the tote.
6  Whyruawesome4/1  Dynamic debut winner went last to first in a fine showing after a poor start, and we have no idea how good this Anne Smith trainee could be. Gelded son of Whywhywhy ran down a clear one in that fine first run where the runner-up was five lengths clear of third and could easily handle the extra ground in here for a barn at a nice 25% first time in a route race. Diego Sanchez has the call and will be doing his best work from off the pace in this one.
1  Cee 'n O12/1  Dale Romans charge was a fine debut winner at Ellis when backed as the favorite, and the son of Silver Train could be any kind in this one, his synthetic debut. April foal is from a very productive family and ran like a horse who could get a lot more ground, being out of a Smart Strike mare seems to indicate so. Barn is 16% first time going long, and we like the rail draw with Eddie Perez riding.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) StrAlw $5,000 3yo and up, Purse: $13,000. 5:37/( 4:37)/ 3:37/ 2:37
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 8-10),$0.50 twinspires.com Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)
# HorseML   Comments
3  Candy Train5/2  Prime Power leader and horse to beat was a dominant, five-length winner in with similar last time and easily could be the one right back with any kind of forward move in this one. Larry Rivelli trained son of Candy Ride has been in fine form with a trio of top two finishes in succession leading up to this and has clearly never been better since joining this outfit, which is winning at a 28% rate leading up to this at the meeting. Timmy Thornton rides and is 3-for-5 for this barn last 60 days.
10  Jonmil Johnny8/1  Eric Reed import has been in fine form since joining this barn and has been sharp on the turf in advance of this, with a win and two seconds in preparation of this one. Gelded son of Forest Danger ranks 2nd in Prime Power and is pretty versatile with either sending early or rating and kicking on in the stretch, for a barn at 25% with a beaten favorite last time. Rosemary Homeister has the assignment.
8  Bluegrass Jet7/2  Live contender drops in here after running well with $25,000 foes most recently and rates a nice chance with a step forward some in this spot. Gelded chestnut five-year-old doesn’t win all that often but does come in with a positive form cycle and dons a big turn of foot which will be aided if a speed duel takes place. Chance at a price for a low percentage barn.

3rd JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3(races 10-11-12),pick 4 (races 10-11-12-13)
# HorseML   Comments
2  Ocean Seven15/1  Six-year-old son of Green Tune ran mostly evenly in a pretty tough listed stakes last time and he gets top billing as we think he gets a dream set up behind a very fast pace leading up to this. Irish-bred has won two straight prior to his latest outing and should be fresh second off the short layoff, for a 14% turf conditioner. Chestnut should be last or next to last early, but we expect him to come rolling home in the stretch at a price.
4  Major Marvel2/1  Prime Power second from the Maker barn was a close fourth while favored in this race last campaign and comes in with good form, winning four straight and six of his last seven. Gelded son of Bernstein has speed in a field full of it, but he draws inside the fastest in the field, which could help if he’s sent, though we have a feeling he may get held back some early by Chris Landeros. Barn always a danger and 22% with shippers; razor-sharp seven-year-old a must use.
7  Global Power2/1  Son of Pulpit was a fine stakes winner last time at Mountaineer and comes back for the Gibson barn, which is 25% in non graded stakes. Speedy player draws widest in the field but could still be the pace of the race with a swift beginning, and he won this race a year ago is his lone race upon this turf course leading up to this. The bay five-year-old is 3-for-4 at today’s trip, and he shows a swift :59 1/5 drill in advance of this, hinting he still has form. Scott Speith has the assignment.
6  String King9/5  LA-bred is in fine form over a turf oval he thrives upon and draws inside the other major pace in the field. Gelded son of Crowded King has finished in the top three in 10 straight, including a pair of stakes wins entering this one, and while the gelding rises up in class, he still looms an obvious player in this one beneath Richard Eramia. Barn 44% with a winner last race and 43% with stakes runners.

4th JP5 1m Non-graded 2yo Fillies, Purse: $100,000. 6:08/( 5:08)/ 4:08/ 3:08
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (9-10) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 9-11)
# HorseML   Comments
1  Gumdrop10/1  Michael Stidham trainee was a huge runner-up in her debut on this oval and could be any kind in here. Bay filly by stamina influence Lemon Drop Kid gets a dream post on the rail and has both the gate speed and pedigree to be a standout at this distance for a barn at 23% here and a solid 21% first time in a route race. Two solid local drills in advance of this, Esquiv’el gets the call atop the upset pick.
7  Istanford8/1  'Other’ Stidham trainee is likely to be the favorite in this one coming off a sensational five-length debut win on the turf here most recently. Dark bay filly was fairly well backed in her debut run and the $25,000 yearling purchase could be a good one, as the connections have tabbed Mike Smith for the ride. Barn is a solid 21% with a maiden winner last time out and this one draws well for her running style. Obvious inclusion.
5  She's Offlee Good10/1  Dark bay daughter of Offlee Wild was a very game maiden debut winner we thought on this oval, and the Richard Scherer trainee will now try to prove her worth at a mile for a conditioner who shows a +2.15 ROI first at a route and is also 25% with a maiden winner most recently. April foal has the pedigree to get this distance and the race at first asking tells us the filly doesn’t mind chasing horses and rallying in the lane. Dark bay should still be forwardly placed in here, and the change to Eddie Castro doesn’t bother us today.
3  Tamazula6/1  Daughter of freshman sire Two Step Salsa showed huge improvement off her debut run when posting a 91 Speed figure second time out in a runaway score, and jockey Kent Desormeaux chooses this one over another, adding to the confidence level. De la Cerda trainee stalked a clear leader and took over at will in that score, and the added ground could be a nice thing in here for a conditioner at 20% for the meeting, and 25% in non graded stakes. We envision this juvenile miss to be sent from the start.

5th JP5 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo, Purse: $500,000. 6:15/( 5:15)/ 4:15/ 3:15
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 11-12-13)
# HorseML   Comments
7  Departing1/1  Al Stall trainee is among the top sophomores in training and will be a single on most tickets to close out this sequence. Gelded son of War Front has won five of his seven lifetime tries, all in convincing fashion, including a dominant, 8-length win in the West Virginia Derby (G2) in preparation of this race. The Kentucky-bred gets a dream post on the outside of this field and we see no reason why he will get upended in this spot. Robby Albarado will be in the saddle once again.
6  Cameo Appearance8/1  Wayne Catalano trainee has been in fine form in three runs for this barn, all on the synthetic, and gives the impression of a rapidly improving sort. Bay colt by Majestic Warrior has very good early speed and shows a swift bullet drill in advance of this, and we think he will surely get this trip under the right circumstances. The sophomore might have as much upside as any in the field despite the favorite, and looks like the most likely upsetter, if there is one. P Val will have this one in the mix from the opening bell.
1  Bashaar7/2  One-run closer from the barn of Dan Peitz gets the rail and comes off a useful try when a late fourth in the ultra-tough Jim Dandy (G2), which produced the first, second and fourth place finishers of the subsequent Travers S. (G1). Deep closer is in fine form with a nice third two back in the Iowa Derby, and his rail post should allow pilot Channing Hill to save ground early and make one run in the lane. There is a bit of speed signed on, so the son of Street Cry could be closing best and dangerous at a number.