Jackpot 5 Analysis for Sunday, August 25

Jackpot 5 08/25/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 85 Low 80.


1st JP5 5 1/2fAlwOClm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $13,000. ( 4:00)/ 3:00/ 2:00/ 1:00
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
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2  Bear's Spirit6/1  Maragh trainee was claimed two back by this outfit and has responded with a pair of wins, including a romp at Gulfstream last time. In-form son of Tale of the Cat has finished in the top three on seven straight occasions and has the versatility to be up front and roll, or rally from a bit off of it and still be equally effective. Prime Power third keeps Gomez in the irons for a conditioner at 31% with a winner last time out.
3  Candi's Halo9/5  Five-year-old son of Halo's Image has finished in the money in 14 of 18 starts on this main oval and remains in fine form for Negrete. Morning line choice has big speed, an affinity on this oval and faced a decent field last time at the starter level. Prime Power second could be the speed of the speed and rates a big chance with anything like his last few. Eddie Nunez will be in the saddle.
6  Chelsea Brook5/2  Wildcard Prime Power leader will make his first start here and for Ralph Ziadie, and the bay son of Montbrook could be any kind on this main oval. Florida-bred five-year-old has bi9g early foot and has been in fine form ion five straight leading up to this, for a barn that is capable with all sorts and is 21% here. Octavio Vergara should have this one forcing the pace from the start.
5  Malibu Wave6/1  Dangerous commodity has a nice turn of foot and could get a nice set up if they duel up front, which is possible here. Four-year-old son of Malibu Moon has run fourth in two straight following a pair of wins in succession for a conditioner at 24% at the meeting, and we like that he draws outside of the favorite for this one. Dark bay has faced moderate pace scenarios in his last pair and would benefit from hot splits to rally into. Jose Rivera inherits the ride.

2nd JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) MdnClm $16,000 3&4&5yo's, Purse: $12,000. ( 4:27)/ 3:27/ 2:27/ 1:27
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
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5  Shadow Moon15/1  Longshot swing has shown little from a pair of career starts on the main oval leading up to this, but the daughter of Invisible Ink makes her 2013 debut on the lawn and we'll give her the upset nod in a field lacking quality. Florida-bred filly hails from a barn going well at 21% for the meeting and is bred top and bottom to be a fine runner on the green, and we think this is a perfect place to try and get a seperator in the sequence. Barn 20% first on the green, bombs away with Calderon in the irons.
7  Ant Hill2/1  Prime Power boss from the tough barn of David Fawkes didn't fire last time on the lawn but could peak here third time off the layoff and lands in a very winnable spot. Gelded chestnut by Indy Wind but a touch of turf form and good tactical foot, for a trainer at 26% third time off the layoff and 20% down a class level. We expect this one to be placed in the second flight early on in with a chance late. Jeffrey Sanchez has the assignment.
8  River Congaree8/5  Morning line choice and speed of the field draws widest in this spot but looms large as the Prime Power second today. Nestor Cascallares trainee pupil has a ton of pace and adds blinkers to stay focused, but this barn is so cold at 4% here and 0-for-46 first w/trainer, so we feel this is a good one to try and beat at a short price, while also including the obvious contender.

3rd JP5 About 1m (Turf) Clm $12,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $8,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
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5  Lila Grace9/2  Danny Whited pupil ran a solid fourth in her turf debut two prior, a race where the top three finishers all came back to win, which flattered this miss. A nine-length winner last time with cheaper on the main oval, the four-year-old filly has been so much better since removing blinkers a while back and we will side here in hopes of a minor upset in the field. Pace stalker will likely be in the second flight early and making her run approaching the final turn under for a barn at 25% up two class levels.
3  Desi Dawn4/1  Prime Power 3rd was an open length winner on this lawn with similar most recently and is an obvious contender right back for conditioner Greg Sheets. Four-year-old filly by Teton Forest seemed to thrive on the lawn last time in her turf debut and will team with Chris Rosier once again, for a trainer/jockey combo that is 2-for-2 as of late. Tactical sort will surely be in the mix early once again and could be the one once again.
1  El Rebecca7/2  Chestnut daughter of El Corredor draws the rail in advance of her return to the races for the first time since January of 2012, but this mare hails from a barn at 22% off of similar type layoffs and we consider her a contender in this wide-open field. Chestnut five-year-old is a winner on this lawn with a third as well from a pair of local tries, and she often shows some tactical foot to be well placed turning for home. Rodriguez rides the win contender.

4th JP5 1m (Turf) Clm $16,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $14,000. 4:58/( 3:58)/ 2:58/ 1:58
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9)
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3  Dancing Flashy8/1  Gray daughter of Flashy Bull didn't fire on a 'good' turf oval last time, but we know that this lass is better than that and she may be of overlaid odds in this spot. Four-year-old filly looked the part in a wire-to-wire score in her lone previous turf run at Tampa earlier in this campaign, and she draws a ton better than the 11 post that gave her no chance last time out. Class dropper goes for a trainer at 22% when moving down like this, and we'll give her top billing today. Chris Emigh stays.
5  Never Lovlier2/1  Live contender from the Roussell barn tops the field in Prime Power and has to be on the ticket in this spot. Dark bay daughter of First Samurai has been very consistent on the lawn in her last three and could thrive on the class drop second off the claim, for an outfit at 21% second w/conditioner. Kentucky-bred has early speed and a nice post to survey the field early under Colvin, and this sophomore would be no surprise in here.
10  Munhall Miss7/2  Rainwater trainee proved capable of running two turns with a big second on this main oval last time at this level, and the daughter of Notional must be used making her grassy debut today. Kin to two grassy winners, the sophomore filly goes for a barn at 1-for-1 second time going long, and despite the wide post, the bay has a big turn of foot and will likely just take back and make one run in the stretch. Bug rider Esquiv'el will stay in the irons, lots to like for this improving sort.
7  C'mon Feet12/1  Dangerous longshot showed speed last time to midstretch before finishing a decent fourth, and the Christine Janks charge could get brave if left alone early in here. Bay daughter of useful turf influence Purge is winless from five runs on this course but will not see a ton of pace pressure today in all likelihood and her Speed figures as of late indicate she could be rounding into a solid form cycle. James Graham rides.

5th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $30,000 3yo and up, Purse: $30,000. 5:29/( 4:29)/ 3:29/ 2:29
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta
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9  Warbird5/2  Horse to beat from the powerful barn of Wayne Catalano had a three-race win streak snapped when fourth on a 'yielding' oval here and could surely rebound for a barn at 30% with a beaten favorite last time. Gelded son of War Front is a dual winner on this lawn and has both the positional speed and closing kick that will make the gelding extra tough with anything near a top showing. Go-to rider Channing hill will ride and have this one in the hunt early on. Not a bad way to conclude the sequence.
7  Let's Do It5/1  David Reid charge has a big turn of foot and could be closing best of all at a number in here. Gelded son of El Prado has been second in two of three local outings and and will go first off the claim for a barn capable in that category at 15%. The bay can handle any type of going on this lawn and will be a bigger factor if the pace backs up late. Not a bad alternative to the top pick.
6  Eleven Final Fours6/1  Consistent sort from the Roussell barn has been in the mix with three straight top two finishes, and has also been in the money in six of seven tries at this venue. Gelded five-year-old son of smart Strike drops in class a bit from the high claiming level he has been at last time, and the tactical speed of this Kentucky-bred could get him the jump on the late runners under Eddie Perez today. Bullet three-furlong blowout last time could have this one on his toes.
2  Bergerac10/1  Gelded son of Rahy has some back class and can't be ignored in this one despite being winless in some time. Well-bred six-year-old has still shown his early foot but will likely be out dashed early on in this one, which can be a blessing to help make him rate early on, and we'd love to see him rate and make a run in the stretch for Tomlinson, who is 20% at this meeting in advance of this. Maany Esquiv'el will guide the win player.