Jackpot 5 Analysis for Sunday, December 15


Jackpot 5 12/15/2013



EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.


1st JP5 6f Clm $5,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $18,000. 3:55/( 2:55)/ 1:55/12:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / Daily Double
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9  Sweetonrich2/1  Five-year-old finished second in one of her two previous starts at Fair Grounds and was claimed by Jonas Gibson when winning at this level over seven furlongs at Churchill in mid-November while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race. Gibson wins with 23% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 22% of his starters since the beginning of the year. Mare has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start with Robby Albarado in the irons.
5  La Grenouille5/1  Five-year-old was claimed by Chris Richard when unplaced at this level on a sloppy track at Churchill in late October but has won four of his nineteen lifetime starts on fast dirt tracks. Richard wins with 32% of his runners first time off the claim and with 24% of his starters that have not raced for 46-90 days and daughter of Cactus Ridge can be running from just off the pace with James Graham riding.
1  Blue Cliff3/1  Filly comes off a win here at this distance last month while earning top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race and now has a record of 6-2-2-0 at Fair Grounds. Trainer Merrill Scherer wins with 15% of his runners that won their last start and has won with 18% of his starters so far at this meet and daughter of The Cliff's Edge can be running from off the pace with David Flores retaining the mount.
 

2nd JP5 About 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $15,000 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 4:23/( 3:23)/ 2:23/ 1:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 6-10)
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8  Clement Rock8/1  Five-year-old has won six of his eighteen lifetime starts on grass and was last seen when unplaced against better on the main track at Keeneland in late October. Son of Strong Hope has been working well since his last start for trainer Mike Maker who wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 21% of his starters on turf. Bay can be best running from off the pace under Shaun Bridgmohan who has won with 19% of his mounts for the barn in the last two months.
5  Dew Drop Kid4/1  Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when weakening to finish sixth at Evangeline Downs in late August after setting the early fractions and is unbeaten in his two previous starts on this turf course. Son of Lemon Drop Kid is trained by Patricia West who wins with 27% of her runners on turf and gelding has been working well and may be the one to catch under James Graham who was aboard for six-year-old's two wins here last season.
7  Valid Message3/1  Gelding was last seen when second at Remington in mid-November and has won seventeen of his forty nine lifetime starts on grass. Son of Valid Expectations will make his first start since returning to the barn of Karl Broberg who wins with 20% of his runners on turf and who won with one of his first six starters at this meet. Gelding can be closing late from off the pace with Chris Landeros in the saddle.
6  Fizzano8/1  Dark bay is returned to grass after being claimed by Steve Asmussen when fifth against easier on the main track at Churchill in early November. Asmussen wins with 22% of his runners first time off the claim and with 15% switching from dirt to turf and son of Pleasant Tap has a record of 13-3-1-2 on turf and can be running from just off the pace.
 

3rd JP5 6 1/2f MdnClm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $21,600. ( 4:56)/ 3:56/ 2:56/ 1:56
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta /.20 Pick 3 (races 9-10-11)
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5  Fingertips5/2  Prime Power boss will remove the blinkers for today and take the big drop down from the special weight ranks for conditioner Robert Gerl. Four-year-old son of Stevie Wonderboy is kin to five winners from as many to race, and while hard to back with an 0-for-21 lifetime line, this class move is a huge one and if he's ever to win, he lands in the best spot. Bullet half-mile leading up to this spot, McAleny will have the assignment.
6  Hidden Blitz8/1  Bay son of Sligo Bay ran a positive race while in with a bit better last time and he looks like the main danger to the top pick at a decent price. Kevin Attard trainee was a nice fourth last time at odds and drops today for a barn that is 15% down two or more levels. First foal out of a winning dam will be rallying from off the pace as a live contender with Omar Moreno in the silks.
4  Track 'Em Down7/2  Gelded son of Heatseeker was a nice second last time against just a bit softer with the addition of blinkers, and the dark bay switches to the barn of Chircop in this one, 1-for-15 first start w/trainer. Three-year-old Ontario bred has the most room for improvement being lightly raced and we really like the cut back in trip, which could make this one's late burst more dynamic than going long. Jesse Campbell will ride the closer.
12  Tricky Times4/1  Prime Power second gets a tough post to work with while widest in the group and has placed in 12 of 16 lifetime outing. Jerri Robertson pupil will remove the blinkers today coming off a huge second when just missing on this oval, and a forward move should put this one right there under Emma Jayne. Late runner might have a wide voyage but lands in a winnable spot and seems to be going in the right direction from a pair of outings on this course.
 

4th JP5 About 1m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $46,000. 5:23/( 4:23)/ 3:23/ 2:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
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4  Bluegrass Sapphire3/1  Daughter of Bluegrass Cat comes from a top turf family and broke her maiden in her one previous start on this course in December a year ago in his eighth career start. Filly followed that with a third in a stakes and was last seen when closing well to finish a close third at Keeneland in October when earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race. Four-year-old is also first on Prime Power and is trained by Ronny Werner who wins with 18% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and dark bay can be running late with Mark Guidry in the saddle.
2  Tipthetrolleygirl8/1  Dark bay comes off a third place finish over seven and a half furlongs here last month in her first start after a short break and has now hit the board in three of her four starts on grass. Daughter of 13% turf sire Put it Back is trained by Brad Cox who has won with 26% of his runners since the beginning of the year and three-year-old can get a nice trip from just off the pace with Leandro Goncalves retaining the mount.
5  Talkin Bout6/1  Four-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Late Pace Last Race when closing to finish second at this level over seven and a half furlongs here last month and now has a record of 6-1-2-1 lifetime on grass. Trainer Gary Scherer wins with 11% of his runners on turf and with 11% of his starters in allowance events and daughter of Yonaguska can be closing late with James Graham remaining aboard.
7  Sapphire Blue6/1  Dark bay was claimed by Mike Maker when breaking her maiden at Belmont in early October while earning top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race in her fourth career start. Maker wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 27% of his starters first off the claim and daughter of 12% turf sire Mr. Greeley can be a contender running from off the pace under Chris Landeros who won with one of his last five rides for the barn.
 

5th JP5 6f MdnSpWt 2yo, Purse: $50,000. ( 5:26)/ 4:26/ 3:26/ 2:26
Exactor /.20 Triactor /.20 Superfecta /.20 Pick 3 (races 10-11-12),.20 Pick 4 (races 10-11-12-13)
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7  Bear's Romeo3/1  Top pick was dueling on the front end last time before tiring late in a good debut, and we think he graduates in here for Reade Baker, 17% with second time starters. Prime Power boss is kin to a graduate from one to race and exits a key race with the second and third place finishers coming back to win since. Son of Kentucky Bear makes a switch to Patrick Husbands in the saddle, and he gets a post with most of the other speed to his inside. Lots to like.
4  Keen Gizmo5/1  First timer from the always dangerous barn of 19% debut maiden special weight conditioner Josie Carroll has trained forwardly in advance of this and could be live at first asking. Son of Giant Gizmo doesn't have a good win early pedigree and likely needs more ground to excel, but the January foal has given the impression of a precocious one in the mornings and Emma Jayne takes the call, a positive as we view it. Watch the board for more clues.
5  Soccer Ryan8/1  Prime Power second will have Lasix for this run and comes in with a chance for sure for Leblanc. Gelded son of Marcavelly has flashed very good early foot in his last pair of races and could be the pace of the race for a conditioner who is going pretty well at this meeting. March foal did put in a pair of morning drills leading up to this spot and draws well with Omar Moreno in the irons. Should be forcing the pace early on.