Jackpot 5 Analysis for Sunday, Sept. 15

Jackpot 5 09/15/2013


1st JP5 6 1/2fAlwOClm $62,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $74,800. ( 3:59)/ 2:59/ 1:59/12:59
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) /.20 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
5   Street Prize 15/1   Longshot contender ran a big second first off the claim at the $32,000 level and wouldn't be a shock at a big price in this one. Five-year-old mare by Street Cry owns all three lifetime wins on this main surface and has speed in a field that lacks it, making the mare very interesting second out for a barn that rarely claims runners. We really liked the way the Kentucky-bred has trained since being claimed, and we will take a huge swing here with Jesse Campbell in the irons. Could be a fine way to kick off the sequence.
1   Eastern Atlantic 2/1   Prime Power leader from the barn of Sid Attard is a three-time winner on this oval and comes off a pair of decent tries when fourth in consecutive stakes runs. Four-year-old daughter of Stormy Atlantic cuts back in trip and class today for a barn having a pretty solid meeting here, and she is a wise one to have on the ticket with Todd Kabel. Expect the four-year-old filly to be forwardly placed from the word go.
4   Big Brown Brookski 6/1   Contender for the always dangerous Reade Baker has been outclassed running long in stakes in her last pair, including on the lawn most recently, but the daughter of Big Brown lands in a mostly reasonable spot and she could be live with her best. A maiden winner on this oval in the summer, the sophomore filly has some tactical speed and a turn of foot, for a trainer at a fine 28% going route to sprint. Intrigues second off the short layoff.
7   Runfor Ro 5/2   Four-year-old daughter of Afleet Alex has run a pair of pretty good ones since joining the Lynch barn and could peak here third time out for a fine outfit coming off the 8-month layoff. Kentucky-bred miss has a touch of back class and has handled this main oval pretty well, now cutting back route to sprint which could aid her chances and improve her late burst. The bay lands in a field without a ton of pace, so still may be fairly close early as a prime player. John Velazquez riding adds to the appeal.

2nd JP5 1 1/2m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:32)/ 3:32/ 2:32/ 1:32
Exactor /.20 Triactor / .20 Superfecta /.20 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),.20 Guaranteed $200,000 Pick 4 (races 8-9-10-11)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Forte Dei Marmi 4/5   Obvious one to beat was a close third in this race a year ago against much tougher, and comes in with razor sharp form, dominating a pair of graded fields on this oval in preparation of this. Seven-year-old son of Selkirk does some fantastic work on this turf course and trainer Roger Attfield is a master at training up to races of this nature, and also 22% with a winner last time out. Bay gelding has fine positional speed and a huge turn of foot, and he simply looks best on this occasion. Short price likely for a 27% jockey/trainer combo.
1   Hampstead Heath 7/2   Nijinsky (Van-G2) and Sky Classic (Can-G2) runner-up gets a fine draw on the rail and looks like an obvious win player in this field for Brian Lynch. Four-year-old son of Macho Uno has clearly never been better and we like the way he has both handled the trip while improving still, posting lifetime best speed numbers in two straight. Gray gelding should save ground early on and looms large, especially if the favorite falters in this one. Emma Jayne rides; third time off the shelf.
3   Irish Mission 12/1   Sneaky contender in the field led to the top of the lane before being dusted late, but the Mark Frostad pupil has a few things going well for her and he might be dangerous. Chestnut filly by Giant's Causeway lacks some of the recent form of a few of these, but the four-year-old is a classic winner on this turf and distance, she looms as lone speed, and the lass also gets an equipment change in removing the shades for this. Gary Boulanger rides, and we consider this one worth using in the sequence for those not singling here.

3rd JP5 7fAlwOClm $62,500 3yo and up, Purse: $50,000. ( 4:59)/ 3:59/ 2:59/ 1:59
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Gold Element 8/5   Has hit the board in 10 of 11 starts on the main track overall which includes six trips to the winner's circle. The bay makes his first start since back in early July when he put in a bit of a disappointing effort while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Lone Star in which he stalked the pace early but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by only a length. Trainer Bret Calhoun wins with 22% of his runners returning from layoffs between 46 and 90 days and with 28% of his runners next out after being beaten as the favorite. Gold Element tops the field in BRIS Prime Power and is co-owner of the best BRIS Class rating.
1   Cozzetti 3/1   Has hit the board in each of his last three starts and exits a nice effort last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition at Saratoga in which he rallied from 5 1/2 lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in third, beaten by 2 1/4 lengths. A repeat of the BRIS Speed rating she posted in that effort would make her a threat in this spot and trainer Dale Romans wins 15% of the sprints he has a runner in. Robby Albarado gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 30% win rate over the last 60 days.
7   Malibu High 8/1   Makes his first start since back in April when he put in a so-so effort while facing stakes competition at Oaklawn in which he finished fourth, beaten by six lengths. The bay is capable of much better and he visited the winner's circle in his only other start here. Trainer Cecil Borel wins with 14% of his runners returning from layoffs longer than 90 days and 21% of the allowance races he has a runner in. Brother Calvin gets the call.
9   Platitude 8/1   Improving son of Yes It's True has run a pair of big ones from a numbers standpoint at six panels in advance of this and could thrive with a bit more ground to work with today from the outside draw. Mark Casse trainee was a solid third here in his lone local run in the fall and could be rounding up to a peak performance third time off the layoff, for an outfit good with all types and off to a nice start at this meeting. The colt uses this ground as his home base, and we expect a nice showing under Alan Garcia.

4th JP5 5f (Turf) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $23,000. 5:34/( 4:34)/ 3:34/ 2:34
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Rip Roarin Ritchie 4/1   Son of excellent turf sprint sire Bring the Heat won a stakes on grass as a juvenile and was last seen when fifth against better at Saratoga last month in his first start since finishing a very unlucky third in his one previous start on this turf course. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins with 22% of his runners first time in a claiming race and has won with 28% of his starters at this meet and BRIS Prime Power selection has tactical speed and can be on or near the lead from the start with James Graham getting the call.
3   Caneros 10/1   Chestnut has not been seen since winning on the main track here against easier in early August when leading from the start while earning top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race and finished second in one of three previous starts on grass. Son of Distorted Humor is from the barn of Louie Roussel who wins with 17% of his runners on grass and gelding, who appears to be improving, can be a factor from the start under E T Baird who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
7   Artful Bee 7/2   Son of 15% turf sire Bernstein stalked the early leaders before winning his latest over the course and distance and is first on BRIS Current and Average Class Last 3. Trainer Armando De la cerda wins with 19% of his runners that won their last start and has won with 20% of his starters at this meet and six-year-old can be running from just off the pace with Eddie Castro remaining aboard.
8   Space Traveler 6/1   Four-year-old comes off a second place finish as the favorite on the main track here last month when making his second start since being claimed by Tammy Domenosky and finished second in one of his three previous starts on grass. Domenosky wins with 18% of her claimers and has won with 18% of her starters at this meet and son of Malibu Moon has tactical speed and can be near the front early under Emmanuel Esquivel.

5th JP5 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $1,000,000. ( 5:38)/ 4:38/ 3:38/ 2:38
First Half Late Double / Exactor /.20 Triactor
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Wise Dan 2/5   Reigning Horse of the Year has been a win machine with 8 straight, 9 of 10 and 17 of 24 lifetime, with a 9-for-10 mark on the turf. Charles Lopresti trained son of Wiseman's Ferry is the defending champ in this field with a romp last year and has no knocks on him and he continues to march to being one of the better and durable runners we've seen in some time. The gelded chestnut has speed, a closing kick, super form and experience on this oval, and he also has arguably the top rider in the states, John Velazquez, on his back. Formidable with even something a touch less than his best.
6   Za Approval 4/1   Consistently good son of Ghostzapper draws outside of this small field and comes off of a nice showing when second in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) on the West Coast last time out. Gelded five-year-old is a multiple graded winner who has been first or second in 8 of his last 10 for conditioner Christophe Clement, who is very good at 23% with shippers. We like the bullet move coming in and the pairing with Garrett Gomez, and the Kentucky-bred looks like a decent alternative to the top pick, if that one falters.
3   Trade Storm 8/1   Unknown Euro import will get Lasix for the initial time, which could be a big thing, and has kept company with some of the top milers in Europe in advance of his stateside bow. David Simmock trainee is far from a win machine, but outside of Wise Dan, he's not facing the toughest assignment of his lifetime, and he gets the hot Gary Stevens to ride, which is a very good thing right now. The bay does his best work in the lane and will likely make one run turning for home.
1   Riding the River 15/1   Multiple Grade 2 hero gets the rail which could be a nice post in this one, and finished a decent fourth in this race a year ago hwile never threatening the winner. David Cotey trainee follows the same path to this and he did a year ago, having a seven-furlong prep in anticipation of this to sharpen up h8is late kick, for a conditioner at 19% in the graded stakes ranks. Six-year-old gelding should be a nice number under Todd Kabel.