Jackpot 5 Analysis for Sunday, September 1


Jackpot 5 09/01/2013



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1st JP5 6f Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $24,000. 4:29/( 3:29)/ 2:29/ 1:29
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 6-7-8)
# HorseML   Comments
5  Heavens Hall12/1  Wild upset stab has a big turn of foot in a field full of pace and we think she could light up the board in this one when the speed backs up late, as we think it will. Five-year-old mare by Graeme Hall hasn't won in a while but does own 7 top three finishes on this oval from 10 tries, and we think the cutback going route to sprint will magnify her late burst in this one. Regular rider Juan Larrosa will ride and be doing his best work in the lane atop the top selection. Bombs away.
9  Foreign Girl4/1  Stakes wining daughter of Run Production draws widest in the field but could still be the one if she clears from this post. Bay filly from the barn of Patrick Mouton is a fine 3-for-6 here with a pair of additional placings and could run a big one today third time off the layoff after chasing a real swift one in her previous two tires, both in stakes company. The bay ranks 2nd in Prime Power and will be very tough with anything like her best in this spot.
7  Amanda Michelle3/1  Prime Power leader from the barn of Denise Schmidt was a nice stakes second last time in her first run with blinkers on and could be the one to catch with a clean break in this affair. Talented dark bay is 3-for-5 at the trip and we liked the way she cleared early on last time, though the barn winning at just a 5% clip here is a concern we have for sure. Roman Chapa inherits the mount and will be winging it early on the LA-bred.
2  Hout Bay9/2  Five-year-old daughter of Harlan's Holiday was a winner in her first try away from the Golden State and looms a danger right back in her second for conditioner Christine Grisham, 25% off the 90+ day layoff. Unraced since May, the mare seems to be well spotted in this field and has both the tactical speed and turn of foot to be a big presence in this -- with the lone concern her affinity to run second more than win. Richard Eramia will ride and is 2-for-3 for this barn last 60 days.
 

2nd JP5 About 1m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
# HorseML   Comments
1  Mallard's Bro9/2  In-form son of It's No Joke just missed in his debut with winners on this lawn most recently and looms a big chance while securing the rail post. Prime Power second has won or placed in seven straight runs , five on this lawn, and has the versatility to be close or rallying from off the pace in this one under Eramia, 43% for this barn last 60 days. The dark bay will be tough to hold off with even slight improvement for Cates, 21% for this barn last 60 days.
4  Sweetcarolinamoon10/1  Sneaky contender from the always dangerous barn of Morris Nicks is a fine maiden winner on this course and comes in fresh after a failed try with allowance foes leading up to this. Gelded sophomore by Malibu Moon goes for a conditioner at 27% at the meeting and 22% off of similar type layoffs, and we fully expect a big time improvement here from a good post with a pair of half-miles drills leading up to this that should have the chestnut fit. Doonie Meche rides.
8  Hot Foot Heat7/2  Prime Power leader by Good and Tough ran better than it appeared last time in a blanket finish race while especially wide throughout, and the Joe Foster trainee makes sense in here with a more sensible trip today. Chestnut gelding did burn some money as of late but his second two back was big, and we like the rider change to Simington today as the five-year-old could need a change. Barn a fine 30% with a beaten favorite last time, and we expect this one to come running in the stretch.
3  Phil Will6/1  Christie Grisham trainee just missed with a big finish against similar most recently and could surely be the one in a mostly wide open field. Gelded four-year-old by Day of the Cat has a bit of back class and always runs well on the green, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one finally pick up his first stakes win in this spot. Roman Chapa has the call and will be off the pace early on.
 

3rd JP5 1 1/8m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $39,000. 5:01/( 4:01)/ 3:01/ 2:01
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (races 7-9)
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6  Jennifer J.8/1  BRIS Prime Power selection has not been seen since finishing unplaced after a troubled trip over six and a half furlongs on the main track in mid-July as the favorite in her first start since finishing second in her debut in June. Daughter of Devil His Due has been working well for trainer Michele Boyce who wins with 27% of her runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and who has won with 23% of her starters at this meet and dark bay can be running from off the pace with Kent Desormeaux retaining the mount.
5  Tapnfire5/2  Daughter of 11% grass sire Pleasant Tap is a half sister to two winners on turf and comes off a sixth place finish after a slow start and a wide trip over a mile against open company in her first start on grass in late July. Filly is first on BRIS Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Chris Block who wins with 20% second time on turf and with 19% of his starters in maiden special weight events and chestnut can be closing late under Eddie Perez.
2  Lil Heat5/1  Blinkers are added to daughter of decent turf sire Latent Heat who comes off a decent fifth place finish at this level over a mile and a sixteenth last month in her second start after a short break. Trainer Christine Janks wins with 13% of runners using blinkers for the first time and with 13% of starters on grass and three-year-old may be closer to the early pace here with Rosemary Homeister taking the mount.
7  Dundalk Dancer3/1  Daughter of excellent turf sire City Zip is first on BRIS Back Speed and comes off a fourth place finish a this level last month in her second career start on grass. Filly is also trained by Chris Block who wins with 19% of his runners on turf and three-year-old, who posted a four furlong work in 48 seconds flat a week ago, can be stalking the early leaders under Eddie Castro.
 

4th JP5 1 1/16m (Turf) StrAlw $5,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $13,000. 5:30/( 4:30)/ 3:30/ 2:30
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta,$0.10 Superfecta
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8  Dontbetellinme2/1  Five-year-old comes off a two length win at this level over the course and distance in July and is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3. Daughter of Offlee Wild now has a record of 10-3-0-1 on this turf course and is trained by Tammy Domenosky who wins with 23% of her runners that won their last start and who has won with 18% of her starters at this meet. Mare has tactical speed and can be in good position from the start running from just off the pace with Eddie Castro retaining the mount.
7  Quiet Nicole5/2  Mare set the early fractions against better here last month over a mile before fading to finish third and has a record of 4-0-1-2 on the Arlington turf course. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins with 19% of his runners on grass and has won with 29% of his starters overall at this meet and daughter of Consolidator can be on or near the lead from the start with Noel Vigil remaining in the saddle.
1  Suspended Moon15/1  Dark bay showed speed before fading over seven furlongs on the main track last month in her second start after a short break and has a record of 7-1-1-0 on grass. Trainer Mike Reavis wins with 12% of his runners third time off a layoff and with 11% of his starters on grass and daughter of Roman Ruler may be the one to catch breaking from the rail under Tim Thornton who won with two of his last seven rides for the barn.
9  Queen for Life4/1  Daughter of decent turf sire Badge of Silver has won two of her seventeen lifetime starts on grass and comes off a third place finish at this level over five furlongs last month in her first start since being claimed by David Hinsley. Barn won with one of last three runners second time off the claim and has won with 11% of starters at this meet and five-year-old can be forwardly placed early with Kent Desormeaux in the irons.
 

5th JP5 5 1/2f MdnSpWt 2yo Fillies, Purse: $39,000. 6:00/( 5:00)/ 4:00/ 3:00
$2 Win/place/show / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta
# HorseML   Comments
7  Pistols Drawn6/1   Newcomer is by very promising young sire First Defence whose offspring win 13% of their first starts and is out of a winning mare who has produced three winners to-date. Two-year-old’s works include a five furlong move in 1:00 4/5 in late August for trainer Carlos Silva who wins with 12% of his first time starters and with 19% of his runners overall in maiden special weight events. Filly looks live here and may be ready for a winning effort at first asking under Eddie Castro who won with one of his last two mounts for Silva.
5  Alittlebitofcandy4/1  Daughter of Crypto Star is out of a stakes winner who has produced four winners and comes off a third place finish in her debut here in early August. Trainer Wayne Catalano wins with 20% of his runners making their second career start and has won with 30% of his starters at this meet and filly posted a four furlong work in 49 seconds four days ago and can improve here while running from just off the pace with James Graham retaining the mount.
1  Dreamofjean E.9/2  Chestnut earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race when second at this level and distance in her third career start early last month and is a half sister to three winners. Daughter of good synthetic surface sire Bring The Heat is from the barn of Larry Rivelli who wins with 19% of his runners in maiden special weight events and filly, who is also first on Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3, can be the one to catch with E T Baird remaining aboard.
1A  Gangster Chick9/2  Dark bay earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when giving way after showing speed in her debut against open company here in early August. Filly is also from the barn of Larry Rivelli who wins with 22% of his second time starters and is also by Bring The Heat and can be a factor from the start under Noel Vigil who won with 36% of his rides for Rivelli in the past 60 days.