Outcap the Shap – 7/21/16
I was close to catching a nice one on Wednesday, but narrowly missed in a roughly run turf sprint to start the sequence. I will look to bounce back on Thursday where I will play one “caveman” ticket in what looks to be a challenging sequence. I will key in on two runners in Race 6, an event that looks like a two-horse race on paper. Then I will go four deep in the two route turf races, which look relatively wide-open. If we can get through those three, I will have six chances in the finale.
The fifth is a state-bred maiden special weight event at one mile over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The also eligible runners were all scratched leaving us with a field of nine. #5 X S Heat is a horse that could be worth a Win bet if the price is right. I will make her my top pick and also include #3 Warm Endowment, #6 California Sunshine and #7 Shehastheritestuff.
The sixth is a $20,000 claiming event for three-year-old fillies at one mile over the main track. This has the look of a two-horse race between #2 Plastered and #6 Joan of Arch. I prefer Joan of Arch dropping in class, going turf-to-dirt and in the third race of her form cycle, but Plastered must be respected going out for the Richard Baltas barn for the first time.
The seventh is a state-bred allowance event run at a mile and a sixteenth over the lawn. My top pick in here is #8 Algorhyhtmic for trainer James Kasparoff. I have been intrigued by this Vronsky filly since a strong debut down the hill at Santa Anita. She has been training well and should appreciate two turns for the first time. I will also include #2 Lynne’s Legacy, #6 Summer Lady and #5 Hijiki, a full to productive grass runner Zanbo.
The sequence concludes with a rock bottom maiden claiming even for three-year-olds and upward at five and a half panels. I have no real opinion in here and will use more than half the field and hope for the best. If you can afford to hit the ALL button I do not think that would be a bad idea at all.
Leg A: 3+5+6+7
Leg B: 2+6
Leg C: 2+5+6+8
Leg D: 2+4+6+7+9+10
Ticket Cost: $96
Outcap the Shap- 7/20/16
I was able to hit a relatively chalky Sunday Pick 4 after being unsuccessful the first two days of the meet, but the good news is that today’s free money offered from Twin Spires is up to $2000!
The Wednesday sequence does not offer full fields throughout, but does have two quality races in the fifth and seventh and a challenging conditional claimer on the lawn to close it out. I am going to try to beat Fox Hill Farms’ runner Kentuckian in the fifth since he has never run on the lawn or at a distance this short and is coming off over a year layoff. He could beat me on class, but his lack of value makes him a play against to me. I will single on one ticket in the sixth and one in the seventh and hope to be alive in the finale where I will spread out and hope for a price.
The first leg of the Pick 4 is the most intriguing race of the day due to the presence of #5 Kentuckian. The son of Tiznow showed extreme talent in the first three starts of his career in 2015 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, including a monster score in the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera last May. Then he tried two turns in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby on the Fourth of July and was defeated soundly at 2-5 and has not raced since. He certainly has talent and class, but not sure why he is being brought back at five-eights on the lawn. My gut tells me this is a prep. I will take a shot against the likely heavy favorite and use #1 Pay the Fine, #2 Fueled by Bourbon and #3 Act on both tickets and include #4 Bottle Rocket and #6 Chips All In on the bigger of the two tickets.
The sixth is a state-bred maiden special weight event at six panels over the main track. On my first ticket, I will single #6 Chao Chom. This Tizbud filly ran huge in her debut for a barn that rarely fires first out. She has worked very well over this track since arriving and will be very tough to beat in this spot. On my other ticket, I will also include #3 Swiss Breeze at 20-1 on the morning line, #7 Christy Jackson a filly that gets a huge rider upgrade to Kent Desormeaux and #8 Princess Tiznow, a first-time starter out of the Mike Puype barn.
The seventh is the featured $75,000 C.E.R.F at six panels. I like the looks of #6 Shh She’s Ours for trainer James Cassidy. This filly draws outside, has the speed to clear and is in great form. She will be my other single in the sequence. If she does not fire, I could see anyone else winning so I will use the ALL button on my other ticket.
The finale is a wide-open $32,000 claiming event over the lawn for those that have not won a race in 2016. The nine-furlong event offers horseplayers several ways to go. I will use five runners on one ticket and include a sixth, #8 Sky Preacher on the cheaper of the two tickets.
Leg A: 1+2+3+4+6
Leg B: 6
Leg C: ALL
Leg D: 2+3+5+6+9
Ticket Cost: $62.50
Leg A: 1+2+3
Leg B: 3+6+7+8
Leg C: 6
Leg D: 2+3+5+6+8+9
Ticket Cost: $36
Total Ticket Cost: $98.50