PP Test 4/9

Ticket #1

Cheap claiming races are typically tough to decipher and this $5,000 affair is no exception. However, I was impressed by the courageous effort turned in by the appropriately named GUT KING on March 26, when he bid and hung in his second race off the shelf. He’s in good hands and promises to be tighter today. JOY FROM PHOENIX faced much weaker last time -- check out the radical drop in odds despite a horrendous showing on March 11 (albeit at an inappropriate distance against fewer foes) -- but he fits relatively well against these. Although he is listed at 9-2 on the morning line and has dangerous early speed, LIGHTHOUSE JUDE has yet to win in 13 route tries.
Hawthorne, Race 2
6-Gut King (12/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
1-Joy From Phoenix (15/1)
Fair Odds: 10-1
8-Lighthouse Judge (9/2)
Fair Odds: 8-1

4-Da Grizz (5/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
$500 WIN/PLACE on 6.
$10 EXACTA KEY BOX 6 with 1,4.

$2 TRIFECTA 6 with 1,4,8 with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10

$1 PICK FOUR 1,4,6 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,4 with 3,5,6,7,8

$1 PICK FOUR 6 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,4 with 3,5,6,7,8

$1 PICK FOUR 1,4,6 with 5 with 1,4 with 3,5,6,7,8.

$1 PICK FOUR 1,4,6 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,4 with 8.

$1 PICK FOUR 6 with 5 with 1,4 with 7,8.

$2 PICK THREE 6 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,4
*Ticket Cost: TBD

Ticket #2

This race is interesting due to the lack of early speed and the fact that FAST PROMISES and O’CONNELL’S -- two deep closers -- are the morning line favorites. Hence, I’m going to take a shot with CREOLE’S AFFAIR, a horse that figures to get an easy trip setting or stalking the pace (most likely behind QUIET REVOLUTION). Creole’s Affair has never matched today’s Brisnet (speed rating) par of 91, but that becomes less of an issue if the early fractions are excessively slow, which they might be. On the plus side, the Charles Bettis trainee earned a race-best -6 last-race late speed ration (LSR).

Hawthorne, Race 3
5-Creole’s Affair (10/1)
Fair Odds: 4-1
6-Fast Promises (5/2)
Fair Odds: 3-1
2-O’Connell’s (3/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
$500 WIN/PLACE on 5

$10 EXACTA KEY BOX 5 with 2,4,6
*Ticket Cost: TBD

Ticket #3

According to Brisnet, 40 percent of all six-furlong races at Hawthorne are won in wire-to-wire fashion, which is encouraging news for SHIP FROM ABROAD, who looked good in his first dirt try. He may get some pressure from DEVIENT BEHAVIOR today, but I suspect he’s simply too quick for these. If anybody is going to catch the likely favorite, my guess is it will be WHAT DO YOU MEAN, who meant business in his last start on March 25, when he narrowly missed catching $282K lifetime earner Distorted Groom.

Hawthorne, Race 4
1-Ship From Abroad (8/5)
Fair Odds: 6-5
4-What Do You Mean (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2

$670 WIN on 1.

$330 Win on 4.

$40 EXACTA 1-4

$20 EXACTA 4-1.
*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #4

CHEROKEE WARPAINT looks best on paper, but the beware: not only does the four-year-old gelding have a propensity for minor awards, but his low-percentage connections don’t exactly inspire confidence either. ROYALLY OUTFOXED royally intrigues me as he ships in from nearby Fairmount Park for an obscure trainer who’s had some success with cheap claiming stock. What’s more, the son of Royal Academy has some early lick, which is a positive at today’s distance. DONTA is winless on dirt, but fits with these.

Hawthorne, Race 5
7-Cherokee Warpaint (7/2)
Fair Odds: 3-1
8-Royally Outfoxed (5/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
6-Donta (8/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
$20 EXACTA 7,8 with 3,5,6,7,8

$20 EXACTA BOX 7 & 8
*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #5

What the Illinois Derby lacks in quality it makes up for in intrigue. WATCH ME GO is the only graded entry but, better still, he’s showing improving LSRs, including a last-race figure that tops the field. The question he will need to answer is whether or not he can rally from further off the pace than normal. SCOUR is part of trainer Albert Stall’s talented sophomore trio that also includes Left and Bind. In fact, Scour has been working with the former in the mornings and has, apparently, been holding his own. The son of Lemon Drop Kid rates a big shot against these. ZOEBEAR is still a maiden, but ran a dynamite race last time, pressing the pace wide in a second-place performance behind Duca, who’s scheduled to face Uncle Mo in the Big Apple. VOUCH FOR VICTORY ran very well last time, but is 0-for-3 on dirt..

Hawthorne, Race 7
4-Watch Me Go (7/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2
6-Sour (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
8-Zoebear (10/1) Fair Odds: 8-1

5-Vouch For Victory (15/1)Fair Odds: 12-1

$10 EXACTA KEY BOX 4 with 5,6,8.

$1 SUPERFECTA 4 with 5,6,8 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10

$1 SUPERFECTA 5,6,8 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10.
*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #6

Obviously, this race goes through Uncle Mo and he looks very tough to beat, topping the field in overall speed, late pace figures and class. I think the big thing for him -- win or lose -- is to get a legitimate Derby prep. This means that DUCA will need to do as expected and set a solid pace. If -- and it is a dubious if -- Uncle Mo cannot rate off a fast pace it is best that he learns (or doesn’t) today rather than the first Saturday in May. Because of his early foot and excellent pace profile (-11 ESR, -6 LSR) last time, the aforementioned Duca is an upset threat at huge odds and I’m also impressed with the improving ARTHUR’S TALE. TOBY’S CORNER could easily bounce back as well, but he’s liable to be overbet.

Aqueduct, Race 10
5-Uncle Mo (1/5)
Fair Odds: 2-5
4-Arthur’s Tale (12/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
7-Duca (20/1) Fair Odds: 15-1

$1 SUPERFECTA 5 with 4,6,7,9 with 2,3,4,6,7,9 with 2,3,4,6,7,9.

$1 TRIFECTA 4,7 with 5 with 2,3,4,6,7,9.

$100 EXACTA 5-4.

$40 EXACTA 5-7.

$10 EXACTA 7-5.

$500 SHOW on 4.
*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #7

Though he got an easy trip last time, it’s hard not to like the way TURBO COMPRESSOR exploded when he switched out for running room in the lane last time. What’s more that race earned a race-best (tied with MANICERO) 97 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 91) and a -7 late speed ration. Manicero was hammered in the Grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park, but has captured two stakes events in as many tries at Tampa Bay Downs. KING SAMURAI could set the pace (JAGGERMONSTER is the other speedster) and figures to improve in his three-year-old and dirt debut (all of his previous efforts have been over AWS at Presque Isle Downs).

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5
4-Turbo Compressor (6/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
3-Manicero (9/5)
Fair Odds: 5-2
2-King Samurai (5/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
$1,000 WIN on 4.

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #8

There’s a ton of early speed in here, which complicates matters, but I think ALMIGHTY O has a lot of talent and may be quickest early. He’s worth a deuce or two at the right odds. KLASSY KORBIN has a tendancy to break slow, but his turn times are the best in the race and he could benefit if the rail is left open. EL BROCKO is one of the few capable of firing late, while WORTHTHEBOTHER is in great hands and is undefeated at Beulah.

Beulah, Race 4
5-Almighty O (6/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
2-Klassy Korbin (3/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
4-El Brocko (10/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1

9-Worththebother (5/2)
Fair Odds: 4-1
$350 WIN on 5.

$2 PICK THREE 2,4,5,9 with 1,5,6,7 with 8

$2 PICK THREE 5 with 1,5,6,7 with 4,8

$2 PICK THREE 2,4,5,9 with 6,7 with 4,8

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #9

Although he’s winless in seven lifetime route attempts, I was hugely impressed by DEL MAR STORM’s last race, in which he pressed the pace wide on both turns and finished with good courage. Add to that improving pace figures -- both early and late -- and you have a prime contender at what promises to be a premium price. PROUD MONKEY could easily set or stalk the pace and has actually faced slightly better in some of her recent tries. JUST YOU AND I won easily last time, but he had a sizzling pace (-15 ESR) to run into.

Beulah, Race 5
6-Del Mar Storm (8/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
7-Proud Monkey (3/1)
Fair Odds: 5-2
5-Just You And I (5/2)Fair Odds: 3-1

$350 WIN on 6.

$350 WIN on 7.

$2 TRIFECTA 6,7 with 1,5,6,7 with ALL

$1 SUPERFECTA 6,7 with 6,7 with ALL with ALL

$1 PICK FOUR 1,5,6,7 with 8 with 2,3,4,5,6,9 with 1,2,3,8,12.

$1 PICK FOUR 6,7 with 4,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,9 with 1,2,3,8,12

$1 PICK FOUR 6,7 with 4,8 with 3,5,9 with 2.
*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #10

On paper, this race isn’t close: LADY GIA towers over the field in terms of class, speed/pace figures, conditioning… and she’s got a top-notch trainer to boot. KATELYN GIRL should probably be called Katelyn Lady, as she’s six years old now, however, she fits with these and enters the race with improving ESRs and LSRs. NEVAHAPPENEDBEFORE is in reasonably good form.

Beulah, Race 6
8-Lady Gia (5/2)
Fair Odds: 2-5
4-Katelyn Girl (6/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
9-Nevahappenedbefore (6/1)Fair Odds: 10-1

$200 EXACTA 8-4.

$50 EXACTA 4-8.

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #11

CAUSE I’M SPECIAL got moving a little late last time, which is a concern today, but once he did, he looked very powerful victory, recording a 72 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 70) and a 0 LSR. ECHO MOUNTAIN is quick from the gate -- 46 percent of five-furlong races at Beulah are won in wire-to-wire fashion -- and he’s exceeded today’s race par in two of his last three starts. BOUND BY TIME could offer value.

Beulah, Race 7
3-Cause I’m Special (3/1)
Fair Odds: 4-5
5-Echo Mountain (5/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2
9-Bound By Time (8/1)Fair Odds: 6-1

$175 WIN/PLACE on 3.

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #12

If you want a graphic example of good tactical riding, take a look at Yuri Yaranga’s effort on DANCING LOGO on March 26. Yaranga came out of the gate pushing and whipping his mount, which, on the surface, seems insane… but not when you consider that Dancing Logo had been routing recently and sprint races at Beulah are generally won by horses with some early lick. Unfortunately, “Logo” wound up getting forced four-wide on the turn that day, but he still finished well (third, beaten a neck) and I think a similar aggressive ride today could get the money. MOON IS A STAR has been facing much better recently and MR SEXY CAT is quick.

Beulah, Race 8
2-Dancing Logo (6/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
8-Moon Is A Star (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
12-Mr Sexy Cat (9/2)Fair Odds: 4-1

$350 WIN on 2.

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #13

I wasn’t a big fan of DEVILISH LADY until her last race, which I thought -- and continue to think -- was an excellent effort. I’m concerned about the price here, as my fair odds are in harmony with the morning line, but the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint should run well. With help from While Merlot (should that one choose to stalk), DADDY’S HONOR could dictate the tempo, which would boost her chances considerably. MY SUNSHINE GAL recorded a 96 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 90) in her latest, a 12 1/4-length romp against cheaper.

Tampa Bay, Race 7
1-Devilish Lady (2/1)
Fair Odds: 2-1
8-Daddy’s Honor (8/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
7-My Sunshine Gal (7/2)Fair Odds: 9-2

$500 WIN on 1.

$25 EXACTA BOX 1-8

*Ticket Cost:

Ticket #14

SLEWS ANSWER is a young, improving horse that closed like a banshee despite trouble last time. It’s arguable that COMPROMISE is the most talented horse in this field; however, he’s a seven-year-old with exactly nine lifetime starts, so he clearly has physical issues. That said, he poses a huge threat today. VANQUISHER is clearly the most accomplished runner in the field, but I’m not sure he wants to run hard anymore.

Tampa Bay, Race 10
8-Slews Answer (9/2)
Fair Odds: 3-1
9-Compromise (5/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
5-Vanquisher (7/2)Fair Odds: 9-2

$450 WIN/PLACE on 8.

$398 WIN on 9.

*Ticket Cost: