Risen Star Stakes Betting

The Risen Star Stakes (G2) is a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds in mid-February and the first Championship Series qualifier offering 50 points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The race currently has a purse of $400,000, and winner secures a spot in the starting gate to the Kentucky Derby. The race also serves a major prep to the $1 million Louisiana Derby in March.

In the last five years, horses running off the pace mid-pack or way back have won the Risen Star. The previous three winners were pressing the pace and up front, so various styles have had success and you want to identify the types of horses and styles entered for the race. A handful of the runners from the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January will run in the Risen Star, and some from the Holy Bull at Gulfstream along with a few entering off allowance races. So pay attention to those races, the pace and how horses finished as it’s just a little shorter distance in the Lecomte than the Risen Star.

Many quality runners and winners of the Risen Star have gone on to Triple Crown success, including since 2012. The Fair Grounds is a deeper track, and four of the last nine winners of the Risen Star had run in a race at the Fair Grounds prior to the Risen Star. Only four of the last 16 Risen Star winners won the race in their 3-year-old debut. One of them was Gun Runner in 2016, who was the 2017 Horse of the Year and matured to be a top older horse.

Girvin was the 2017 Risen Star winner in just his 3rd career start. Like him, it helps to have run a race over the Fair Grounds track previously, as it’s a little deeper than other tracks.

Only one favorite has won the Risen Star since 2010, so value can be found in the race along with long shots, as a huge won took the 2013 Risen Star when I’ve Struck a Nerve scored late from the clouds at 135-1 and returned $272.40 on a $2 win wager.

Risen Star Payout History

Year	Winner	Odds	Payout	Time	Style	Favorite
2018	Bravazo	21-1	$44.00	1:42.95	Pressing	3rd
2017	Girvin	8-1	$18.20	1:43.08	Mid-pack	5th
2016	Gun Runner	5-1	$12.20	1:43.94	Mid-pack	10th
2015	International Star	7-2	$9.60	1:43.82	Mid-pack	5th
2014	Intense Holiday	5-1	$12.00	1:43.86	Closer, late run	3rd
2013	I’ve Struck a Nerve	135-1	$272.40	1:44.52	Closer, last, late	5th
2012	El Padrino	4-5	$3.60	1:42.96	Stalking	1st
2011	Mucho Macho Man	7-2	$9.20	1:43.98	Pressing	3rd
2010	Discreetly Mine	5-2	$7.00	1:44.88	Front	4th

Prep Race Runners vs Kentucky Derby Starts

Derby Winners from Risen Star: 1
KD Year, Horse, Prep, Trainer
2002, War Emblem, 6th, Bob Baffert

Risen Star, Fair Grounds (48-1-3-3)		Finishes
Year (Gr.)	Horse	Prep	Derby
2016-II	Gun Runner	1st	3rd
2016-II	Mo Tom	3rd	8th
2016-II	Tom’s Ready	7th	12th
2015-II	Keen Ice	3rd	7th
2015-II	War Story	2nd	16th
2014-II	Commanding Curve	6th	2nd
2014-II	Intense Holiday	1st	12th
2014-II	Vicar’s in Trouble	3rd	19th
2013-II	Golden Soul	6th	2nd
2013-II	Normandy Invasion	5th	4th
2013-II	Mylute	7th	5th
2013-II	Oxbow	4th	6th
2013-II	Palace Malice	3rd	12th
2012-II	El Padrino	1st	13th
2012-II	Optimizer	9th	11th
2011-II	Mucho Macho Man	1st	3rd
2011-II	Santiva	2nd	6th
2011-II	Decisive Moment	5th	14th
2011-II	Pants On Fire	6th	9th
2010-II	Discreetly Mine	1st	13th
2009-III	Friesan Fire	1st	18th
2009-III	Nowhere to Hide	4th	17th

Above table updated throug 2017