Score with Simon Ticket for 4/16/11

While I think MIDNIGHT WARRIOR is clearly the horse to beat, I`m intrigued by BEAVERHEAD ROCK, who I think might get the lead in here (provided that CASTLE FOIL isn?t feeling up to snuff) and has previously met the race par by employing similar front running tactics.

POLISHED has the best Win Factor Report Class Rating in the field and was just claimed by crafty conditioner Michael Simone after recording a 90 Brisnet speed figure (equal to today?s par) and zero (0) LSR last time. But here`s the clincher: the meet?s leading jockey, Kendrick Carmouche is in the saddle? no big deal, except that Carmouche abandons the morning line favorite to do so. Lone speed, a last-race Brisnet speed rating of 97 and a trainer (Carlos Guerrero) who?s winning at a 43% clip this meeting -- what?s not to like about HI CARD GAMBLER? Ask Carmouche. Of course, one never knows why a jockey switches mounts, but that and a vet scratch on March 7 make me think that Guerrero -- let?s be honest, he?s at the crux of the analysis -- may be vulnerable today. WAWASET PARK is a veteran campaigner repeating a winning pattern (dropping from a route try).

Typically, I only play horses coming off of really bad efforts if I can rationalize their defeats and I kinda sorta can with ELECTRICAL ALPHABET?s last-race shellacking on March 12. The five-year-old gelding was facing much classier stock that day and, in fact, ran a better-than-it-looks-on-paper race, despite finishing a distant last. Consider: This guy was 1-2 in a N1X allowance race at Delta Downs on Dec. 15 and the 2-1 favorite against $25,000 claimers less than two months ago. Yes, he was claimed recently, but trainer Don VonHemel is no slouch, despite sub-par 2011 statistics, and Electric Alphabet catches a field where his stock-and-go style should be beneficial. TIME SENSITIVE ran a bang-up race on Feb. 12 and would be a huge threat if he can find that form again.

Top trainer William Cowans has three entries in this state-bred stakes affair, including the morning line favorite NO GARLIC, but none look as impressive as TROPHY BOY, who drew to an impressive score after setting a torrid pace in his maiden debut on March 14. Both halves of the Laurie Hickman entry look good, and I was impressed by Subtle Irony?s lifetime bow as well..

I'm not overly impressed with the morning line favorite, ALKE GIRL, in this spot. Sure, she broke her maiden for a higher tag, but I'm not sure her connections have any clue as to where she actually belongs, so I'll try to beat her. Personally, I think the horse to catch is NICEJEWEL CAT. The daughter of One Nice Cat broke her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion, while earning an 83 Brisnet speed figure (today's par is 80) and -8 late speed ration and, last time, raced wide while putting bidding on the turn before fading late. There's not much early lick in this contest and I think Cat? could easily lead from flag fall to finish. I?m also intrigued by GERALDINESTHUNDER, who has been ascending/descending in class with regularity -- typically showing improvement on the drop, which she does again today (at least in terms of competition). MS DRAMA QUEEN is also showing improvement.

On overall talent, this race is no contest, as WISE DAN is clearly best. The question is can he win at a challenging distance (seven furlongs) following a layoff of nearly four months? I think he can. Not only is his trainer, Charles Lopresti, good with rested runners, but Wise Dan's workouts have been beautifully planned and spaced -- the clear choice. If you?re looking for a price, check out COOL BULLET. Although his last race garnered just a -18 LSR (Wise Dan typically records numbers in the -6 to -7 range), the son of Red Bullet is one-for-two on synthetic surfaces and should get a great trip stalking or setting the pace today. AIKENITE has won over this track, but figures to be overbet.

Simply put, FANTASIA?s two Keeneland starts last year were spectacular, earning the now-five-year-old mare Brisnet speed figures of 97 and 101 (today?s par is 99), along with LSRs of +2 and +9 respectively. There is, of course, the 168-day layoff to contend with, but Jonathan Sheppard typically has them ready and hot Rosie Napravnik is in the saddle. AVIATE is 20-1 on the morning line, but 8-1 on my own fair odds line; she should move forward off of an encouraging North American debut. ZAGORA earned a 96 Brisnet speed rating and +4 LSR in her four-year-old bow and could certainly improve that performance.

Even though it doesn?t look like it, HARBOR FOX ran a huge race last time, racing four-wide on both turns in a pretty good allowance affair at Fair Grounds. With an abundance of early zip in the race -- Dixie City, May Day Rose and Scarlet Miss have all recorded -15 ESRs or lower in recent starts -- I think Harbor Fox could get a perfect trip today at what promises to be a nice price. What?s more, given the pace scenario, there could be value in the exotics as well.

ABERGATTI pressed an insane pace (-14 ESR) in the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 12 and paid the price, getting beat by 33 1/2 lengths. And even though there?s quite a bit of early lick in this race too, I think trainer Steve Asmussen?s colt may be the quickest of the quick at a track that has witnessed 38 percent wire-to-wire winners at this distance. If the pace does turn out to be too ambitious, look for THE OLE GEN to be rallying past the leaders in the stretch. His last race at Turfway Park was a disappointment, but his prior effort -- over this very track and surface -- was a thing of beauty, as it earned the Larry Jones-trained colt a 95 Brisnet speed rating (today?s par is 97) and -4 late speed ration.

As much as it pays to find an alternative to the favorite in Keeneland stakes races -- they have won just 41 of 165 such events since 2006 and returned a mere 66 cents for every dollar wagered -- I simply cannot look past SANTIVA in this spot. His last race -- a wide second in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds -- was sensational and I think the son of Giant?s Causeway is even better on plastic (he finished second in the Risen Star in the Grade 1 Breeders? Futurity over this track as a juvenile).Trainer Todd Pletcher has had his share of success in this race and has three entries on Saturday. Of the trio, all of which appear to be ?live,? I prefer QUEEN?SPLATEKITTEN, who lures top jock John Velazquez and switches back to AWS where he broke his maiden at Woodbine in Canada.

This race could be chalkfest or a bombfest -- yeah, I know, way to take a stand, Derek -- but I'm partial to the latter scenario. Hence, I'll structure my exotics around a few horses I think will offer value. First and foremost among these is CLASSIC CASCADE, a horse that tops my Win Factor line and gas run very, very well in his two route tries (on July 3 at Evangeline Downs, for example, the four-year-old gelding posted a 93 Brisnet number and a +1 LSR). What?s more, Classic Cascade?s trainer, Stanley Roberts, is better than average with horses making their second start off a layoff and this guy -- the horse, not Mr. Roberts -- galloped out very well in his yearly bow, a six-furlong sprint over today?s track. I've also got my eye on MAC DEHERE and MESA SUNRISE. Although his last race was a dud (the second call position listed in the past performances for his race on March 4 is incorrect; he never got out of eighth place in that race), Mac Dehere possesses the best overall LSRs in the field. And ?Mesa? once ran faster, relatively speaking, than Rachel Alexandra (on June 27, 2009, the day Rachel set a new stakes record in the Mother Goose).