Ed DeRosa’s Canadian International Day Analysis and Tickets
Whenever Woodbine rolls out the classic or Grade 1 race carpet, you best believe that whole rug is going to contain challenging races to complement a very player-friendly multi-race wagering menu featuring a Pick 5, a pair of Pick 4s and rolling Pick 3s all at a $.20 minimum.
We’ll focus on the Pick 4s, which feature guaranteed pools of $300,000 (races 4-7) and $500,000 (races 8-11). That latter sequence begins with the Grade 1 double of the E.P. Taylor and Canadian Interntional Stakes, and Brisnet.com has made available FREE Ultimate Past Performances for the late Pick 4.
$300,000 early Pick 4, races 4-7
Race 4, $300,000 Nearctic Stakes, an open race going 6 furlongs on turf
Terror is extremely logical shipping in here to take on older males and getting up to six pounds to do it, but she doesn’t have to win, and as a three-year-old filly against open company, I’m even more concerned that posts 8+ have just an 8% win percentage at this trip.
The par Brisnet.com Speed Rating for this class is 97, and that appears to be the ceiling for most of these, which is why Terror merits respect off her Class Ratings, but I fear she’ll be an underlay.
I mentioned posts 8+ have won only 8% (with a negative impact value), but the rail is five-for-20 (25%), which means #1 Summation Time is a must use shipping even further north after a pair of placings behind the ill-fated but well-regarded Shore Runner.
It’s a well-balanced field, though, and numbers 3, 5, 6, 7, & 10 are all on my main ticket as well.
Race 5, entry-level allowance for two-year-old Ontario-breds going 7 furlongs on Polytrack
#4 Ultraflame drops into restricted allowance company off a speed-and-fade third-place effort from an outside post in the open Simcoe Stakes last out. His pair of 80+ Brisnet.com Speed Ratings tower over this field, and the post relief has to help against lesser. He’s a strong single.
BUT… the $.20 minimums require us to play around a little, and the entry is worth a look having the field covered early and late while #7 Aye Aye Captain popped a decent number on debut at this course and distance and retains top jock Eurico Da Silva.
Race 6, $150,000 Ontario Fashion Stakes, six-furlong Polytrack sprint for females
Nice 10-horse field but going to take a mini stand and use only three horses in here on most tickets: #4 Endless Light, #8 Unspurned, and #9 Cactus Kris.
That last one is 15-to-1 on the morning line, and one of the horses I’m excited to bet flat in addition to in the multis. She’s one-for-three at Woodbine, and returns to Canada after a couple solid efforts at Presque Isle Downs, which is an underrated circuit when it comes to producing these kinds of runners.
The one I’m against is #10 Tahnee, who I think will be compromised by the outside post given her run style, but that’s good news for Cactus Kris, who should get a tuck behind trip that one. Tahnee is 6-for-9 at Woodbine, but this is a higher class of animals than her typical races here.
Race 7, entry-level claiming race ($40k) for older males going 7 furlongs on Polytrack
#3 Butterfly Strike looks good, but I worry how short he’ll go given the 9-to-5 morning line price, known connections, and best last-out race.
#4 Holy McNasty gets a jockey change first off the claim after a speed-and-fade effort at this class and could spring a minor upset if clear.
#5 Turn Back Time drops in class and cuts back in distance after racing against some solid next-out winners 6-to-1 seems too good to be true, but a must use in the multis for sure.
THE PLAYS: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 with 4 with 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10 with 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 ($48)
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 with 1, 2, 4, 7 with 4, 8, 9 with 3, 4, 5 ($57.60)
ALL with 4 with 4, 8, 9 with 3, 4, 5 ($21.60)
Leaning on our single in the first play and then needing the “A” picks on the second with a chance to hit it three times through our strongest opinions in the last three legs. Hate to punt on the Nearctic, but don’t really want to take a huge stand against Terror despite thinking some longshots are live. If a longshot does win, we’ll just have to be right later as well!
$500,000 late Pick 4, races 8-11
Race 8, $500,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes, 1 ¼ miles on turf for females
Nothing too terribly creative here, as if I liked #9 Curvy at 3-to-2 in the Flower Bowl, then I’m not going to turn my back at twice the price (3-to-1 morning line) in her second start getting Lasix and catching what I presume will be ground more to her likely, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that one of the world’s best jockeys, Ryan Moore, hops aboard.
After her it’s a mad dash, but #s 2, 3, 8 & 12 hold interest at double digit odds, and this is the type of race where I’ll definitely be watching the exacta probable in case one of those four gets away from the board even more so than her win odds.
Race 9, $1-million Pattison Canadian International, 1 ½-mile Grade 1 turf race
Again, not being too terribly creative here either, as the two European horses look to have the measure of their North American counterparts.
The par Brisnet.com Speed Rating for this race is 103, and none of the “local” horses have cracked triple digits so far this year. Brisnet.com does not produce Speed Ratings for European racing, BUT based on Class Ratings, it’s safe to assume that both #2 Cannock Chase and #4 Second Step are capable of at least that on an average day let alone at their best.
From an “on top” pick standpoint, I’ll give a slight edge to Cannock Chase, but considering he’ll be favored I want to use Second Step just as much.
Race 10, entry-level allowance race for Ontario-bred three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack
#6 Crack That Whip keeps just missing at this level, and while frequent bridesmaids can be tough to take at suppressed prices, she’s second choice on the morning line and looks to be a tad quicker on Polytrack versus favorite #5 Sarah Toga Saint, who I’m fading all the way down to a “C” selection.
#1 Classic Tale has speed and the rail, but the inside hasn’t been great going two turns, which means #7 Turn To Reality could end up lone speed if there’s trouble to her left. She won’t win if Classic Tale fires as well, but at 10-to-1 I don’t want her off some tickets if she’s winging it.
Race 11, maiden special weight for Ontario-bred fillies going 6 furlongs on Polytrack
In addition to closing out the Pick 4, this also is a Super High 5 race, and the carryover could be $200k+ by the time Sunday rolls around.
#7 Boldnpossible took money on debut and just got ran down late, #8 Bold Ambition looks to be a nice price at 12-to-1 morning line, and while the ten losses don’t inspire, her numbers are consistently in the ballpark. Not the type I’d want as an overbet favorite, but these races ARE good enough to win this. #11 Forest Love cuts back slightly and has done well from the outside in the past.
THE PLAYS: 9 with 2, 4 with ALL with ALL ($19.60)
9 with ALL with 6 with ALL ($30.80)
ALL with 2, 4 with 6 with ALL ($67.20)
9 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 7, 8, 11 ($24)
2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12 with 2, 4 with 1, 6, 7 with 7, 8, 11 ($28.80)
Need some prices peppered with the logical horses here, but think we have a nice stand in the last race that even if we chalk out in the first three if we get the last one right then having this for