Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/22/2013


Jackpot 5 12/22/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 74 Low 49.


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1st JP5 About 1 1/8m (Turf) AlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up, Purse: $48,000. 3:55/( 2:55)/ 1:55/12:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Black Gold 5 (races 5-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
9   Marine Patrol 5/1   Improving three-year-old was unable to reel in gate-to-wire winner Marchman in the Woodchopper Stakes over a mile here in late November in his latest and has now finished first or second in four of his five lifetime starts on grass. Son of 12% grass sire Tapit is trained by Wayne Catalano who wins with 19% of his runners on turf and who has won with 20% of his starters overall since the beginning of the year. Colt can be running from off the pace under Shaun Bridgmohan who was aboard for two of the colt's previous wins.
11   Bell by the Ridge 9/2   Dark bay comes off a closing second place finish over a mile and a sixteenth here in late November in his first start after a short break and has a record of 4-2-1-0 on the Fair Grounds turf course. trainer Mike Maker wins with 21% of his runners on grass and with 16% of his starters in allowance races and son of 13% grass sire Tiger Ridge can be a threat running from off the pace under Chris Landeros who won with one of his last five rides for the barn.
2   Street Serenade 7/2   Gelding is first on BRIS Prime Power and Current Class and comes off a third place finish on the main track here in late November after being involved for much of the trip and has won one of his eight previous starts on grass. Trainer Michelle Lovell wins with 21% of her runners switching from dirt to turf and with 20% of her starters in allowance events and son of Street Sense has early speed and can be forwardly placed early under James Graham.
5   Classy Al 12/1   Lightly raced four-year-old was last seen when winning on the main track at Woodbine running from off the pace while earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race. Son of Afleet Alex is a half brother to three winners on grass and finished third in his one previous try on this turf course for trainer Malcolm Pierce who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gelding can be closing late for a share with Miguel Mena up.
 

2nd JP5 1m 70 YardsAlwOClm $10,000 3yo and up, Purse: $18,000. 4:23/( 3:23)/ 2:23/ 1:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   Silent Pipe 7/2   Dark bay was claimed by Mike Maker when unplaced against much better at Churchill in early September after disputing the early fractions and has won seven of his twenty previous starts on this track. Maker wins with 27% of his runners first time off the claim and with 22% that have not raced for 90 days or more and, with tactical speed, seven-year-old can be in good position from the start under Rosie Napravnik who won with 26% of her rides for the barn in the last 60 days.
5   Well's Gold 7/5   Five-year-old is first on BRIS Prime Power, Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and comes off a third place finish over five and a half furlongs here last month after setting the early fractions in his first start after a short break. Son of Gold Tribute has a record of 6-2-4-0 at this distance and will make his second start for trainer Patrick Mouton who wins with 15% of his runners second time off a layoff. Bay may be fastest early and the one to catch with James Graham retaining the mount.
9   Jump Jump 5/1   Son of Jump Start comes off a well beaten fourth place finish in the Louisiana Starter Handicap here eight days ago and has now failed to hit the board in two tries at Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has won with 19% of his runners at this meet and with 31% since the beginning of the year and five-year-old has early speed and can be forwardly placed from the start but loses previous rider Napravnik to the top selection.
 

3rd JP5 1mAlwOClm $20,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $24,500. ( 4:33)/ 3:33/ 2:33/ 1:33
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Spoonfulofsugar 6/1   Doug Danner trainee was a clear second behind a sharp winner who would have beaten a lot of foes on that day, and the chestnut filly rates a chance in her second run on this surface. Three-year-old daughter of Bluegrass Cat came home very well last time, and it's possible this late runner is reaching a peak in her performance towards the end of her sophomore campaign. Dean Sarvis will ride.
3   Maid on a Mission 10/1   Sneaky contender exits what we thought was a tough heat here last time and gets a look at a price in this spot. Tommy Mills trainee has a nice post and could be the inside speed of the field with Corey Orm signed on for the repeat ride. Four-year-old daughter of Strategic Mission had to need her last off the year break, and she could surely improve second off the break for a barn at 20% in that category.
2   Currency Gains 9/2   Bay filly by High Cotton has not been in much form and lacks consistency for sure, but the three-year-old gets a big barn change to Maker, and we can't let this outfit beat us when it often thrives at this meeting. Florida-bred miss has run a few good ones for a trainer who is 50% in the top two at this meeting and the local works have been pretty good leading up to her local debut off the six month layoff. Victor Lebron has the call.
4   Demure Halo 5/1   Five-year-old mare by Quiet American comes off a strong win at Churchill Downs with a bit softer but fits in this group and might also show a lot of speed in a field without an abundance of pace signed on. Bay lass has never run on this oval but owns a tally on synthetic and gets a fine post for her running style for conditioner Donald Habeeb, 17% with a winner most recently. We'd include the Florida-bred.
 

4th JP5 About 5 1/2f (Turf) Clm $20,000 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 4:53/( 3:53)/ 2:53/ 1:53
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   Emerald Crescent 9/2   Gelding is the BRIS Prime Power selection and was last seen when claimed by Mike Maker when second on the main track against easier at Keeneland in early October. Seven-year-old failed to hit the board in three previous starts on grass but should take to the surface being by 13% turf sire El Prado and being a half brother to one winner on grass. Maker wins with 27% first off the claim and with 21% that have not raced for 46-90 days and chestnut can be stalking the early leaders under Rosie Napravnik.
2   Barracuda Bay 5/2   Seven-year-old has a record of 11-3-2-2 on this turf course and earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when sixth against better at Arlington in late September. Son of Mutakddim is also first on Back Speed and Current and Average Class Last 3 and is trained by Frank Springer who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Chestnut can be running late with Chris Landeros in the saddle.
8   Whiskey Bravo 4/1   Son of Fusaichi Pegasus was claimed by Corale Richards when second over six furlongs on the main track here earlier this month and has won one of his four previous starts on turf. Richards wins with 15% of runners first time off the claim and has won with 14% of starters since the beginning of the year and three-year-old can be a contender running from off the pace with Richard Eramia aboard.
10   Themistocles 8/1   Dark bay was stakes placed as a juvenile on turf at Louisiana Downs and was claimed by John Hardy when winning here on the main track last month in his first start since May. Hardy wins with 10% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 9% of his starters this year and son of 13% turf sire Lydgate has some early speed and can be forwardly placed early with Jansen Melancon in the saddle.
 

5th JP5 6f MdnClm $30,000 3yo and up, Purse: $10,500. ( 5:02)/ 4:02/ 3:02/ 2:02
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Super Hi Five
#   Horse ML   Comments
6   El Zohan 5/2   Horse to beat from the Maker barn ran evenly at first asking at Ellis Park in advance of this in the summer with special weight foes, and the class drop should lead this one to the winners circle with any type of improvement on this occasion. Gelded son of El Corredor was well bet in that first outing at 8-5 odds and has trained fairly well leading up to this for a trainer very good off the shelf, as well as being 23% with second timers. Prime Power leader will have Victor Lebron riding.
8   Hollywood Mystery 5/1   Tom Drury trainee didn't show a ton at first asking, but the gray colt did face a pretty good group and gets a look for a conditioner at 30% with shippers. Sophomore son of Unbridled's Song is unraced since the spring but he hails from a solid barn, especially when it comes to Turfway, and the well-bred sort could thrive on the drop in class today. Out of one of the better female sprinters in some time, we wouldn't be shocked to see this one take a big step in the right direction.
7   Cool Attitude 12/1   Second timer faced state bred special weight foes at Indiana this fall and the son of Cool Conductor could be a player despite this barn at just 1-for-31 second time out. Matt Kintz trainee had a tough break from the rail in that first run and draws well here outside of the main danger, which could be a big asset approaching the turn for home. Worth considering with De Leon in the silks.