Jackpot 5 Analysis - 12/27/2013


Jackpot 5 12/27/2013

Advance Weather Forecast
High 56 Low 45.


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1st JP5 About 1 1/16m (Turf) AlwOClm $15,000 3yo and up, Purse: $22,000. 5:23/( 4:23)/ 3:23/ 2:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Cantonic 9/2   Seven-year-old has not been seen since finishing fifth at Meadowlands in mid-October but has been working well for trainer Mike Maker who wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Son of 12% turf sire Candy Ride has won six of his twenty three starts on grass and Maker wins with 21% on turf and has won with 18% of his starters at this meet. Gelding has some tactical speed and can be forwardly placed from the start with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
4   Common Sense 12/1   Bay was claimed by Hugh Robertson when making some late progress while unplaced at Hawthorne in his latest in mid-October and has won four of his fifteen starts on grass. Robertson wins with 20% of his runners first time off the claim and with 12% that have not raced for 46-90 days and son of Aptitude can be running late with James Graham taking the mount.
5   Hungry Wildcat 4/1   BRIS Prime Power selection has a lifetime record of 24-9-3-4 on turf and comes off an unplaced effort againg better here three weeks ago. Son of 18% grass sire Margie's Wildcat is from the barn of Eduardo Rodriguez who wins with 9% of his runners on grass and who has won with 12% of his starters this year and dark bay can be closing from off the pace with Florent Geroux up.
3   Clement Rock 8/1   Bay has not been in great form and takes a class drop off a sixth place finish on the main track at Keeneland in late-October. Son of Strong Hope has won six of his eighteen starts on turf and is also trained by Mike Maker who wins with 21% of runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Five-year-old worked four furlongs in 49 3/5 six days ago and may show more here with Miguel Mena in the irons.
 

2nd JP5 1m 70 YardsAlwOClm $50,000 2yo, Purse: $46,000. 5:53/( 4:53)/ 3:53/ 2:53
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Plug Catcher 4/1   Son of Roman Ruler will have blinkers added and was last seen when fading badly at Churhill in November in his first start since breaking his maiden in his debut there in September. Chestnut's recent works include a five furlong move in 58 4/5 here this month for trainer Bret Calhoun who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and with 23% using blinkers for the first time. Colt can be stalking the early leaders with Rosie Napravnik remaining aboard.
1   Gold Hawk 6/1   $450K yearling purchase earned top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Early Pace Last Race when breaking his maiden in his debut at Churchill over seven furlongs in late November. Son of Empire Maker is out of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Caressing and is trained by Steve Asmussen who wins with 22% of his runners that broke their maiden in their last start. Colt, who is also first on Prime Power and Average Class Last 3, can be forwardly placed early breaking from the rail with Ricardo Santana retaining the mount.
3   Bayou St John 8/1   Gelding comes off a maiden breaking win in his debut here at this distance in late November and is a half brother to two other winners. Son of Bernstein is trained by Mike Stidham who wins with 19% of his runners that broke their maiden in their latest start and who has won with 18% of his starters at this meet. Two-year-old can be a contender running from off the pace under James Graham.
6   Son of a Preacher 9/2   Stablemate of the top selection may not have cared for the surface when unplaced on grass as the favorite at Churchill in his latest in November in his first start since breaking his maiden on the main track at Churchill in his debut in October. Calhoun wins with 28% of his runners switching from turf to dirt and has won with 27% of his starters at this meet and son of Pulpit can be running from off the pace under Miguel Mena.
 

3rd JP5 6f MdnClm $5,000 3yo and up, Purse: $5,500. ( 6:15)/ 5:15/ 4:15/ 3:15 ( 6:15)/ 5:15/ 4:15/ 3:15 ( 6:15)/ 5:15/ 4:15/ 3:15
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Regal Sun 3/1   Top pick from the Humphries barn ran a decent one going long against a bit tougher and cuts back to a dash on the class drop in this spot. Four-year-old son of Monarchos is 2nd in Prime Power and was a bit headstrong while restrained last time and should prefer this one turn trip where he will likely be stalking the pace and getting first run on the closers. Tactical sort goes for a barn at 40% with a beaten favorite last time and 30% going route to sprint, and regular rider Corey Orm stays.
10   Jimmy the Whip 7/2   Prime Power leader from the Larry Smith barn is the pace of the race and could surely be the one second time out for this outfit. Speedy son of Blazonry was a nice second last time after leading and staying on pretty well for the runner-up spot at Mountaineer and could improve getting back on the all weather for a conditioner at 18% with shippers. Kin to four winners from four to race, the gelding could benefit from this post and looms large under Tamburello.
8   Raptitude 4/1   Four-year-old son of Aptitude finished a clear second last time ion his debut for Brownfield and has every right to improve second for this barn, which is 33% in that category. Gelded Kentucky-bred has now finished second from two starts on this polytrack surface and has the turn of foot to be the one to hold off late in this spot with any type of forward move in a very winnable spot. Prime Power third will likely be near midpack early and making a run turning for home under Contreras.
4   Romp With Pomp 6/1   Win contender ran mostly evenly in a useful debut and could be a big danger with expected improvement for Helmbrecht, a solid 19% with second timers. Kin to a winner from two to race, the sophomore son of Chapel Royal missed the break and rushed up last time when very wide before tiring, and a better start could have this one well positioned in the lane with De Leon returning. The dark bay was well bet last time and might add some value as a must use in this sequence.
 

4th JP5 6f MdnClm $12,500 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $17,000. 6:23/( 5:23)/ 4:23/ 3:23
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Super Hi-5
#   Horse ML   Comments
3   Can't Buy a Thrill 7/2   Dark bay has not been seen since earning top ranking on BRIS Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race when finishing second in a maiden special weight at Hawthorne fourteen months ago but is also first on Prime Power and Average Class Last 3. Daughter of Borrego has been working steadily for trainer Hugh Robertson who wins with 8% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more and filly can be near the front early with James Graham taking the mount.
10   Treca 9/2   Chestnut comes off a fourth place finish as the heavy favorite at this level over five and a half furlongs earlier this month but may have needed that start being her first since July. Daughter of Until Sundown will make her second start for trainer Jonas Gibson who wins with 33% of his runners second time off a layoff and with 27% that were beaten favorite last time out. Four-year-old can be stalking the early leaders with Rosie Napravnik aboard.
6   Distant Cat 8/1   Gray was claimed by Steve Asmussen when fourt at this level over a mile here in early December and is a half sister to one winner. Asmussen wins with 22% of his runners first time off the claim and has won with 24% of his starters at this meet and daughter of Tale of the Cat can be running from off the pace with Miguel Mena in the saddle.
 

5th JP5 1m Clm $5,000 3yo and up, Purse: $8,500. ( 6:44)/ 5:44/ 4:44/ 3:44
Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 2-3-4) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
8   Azirule 2/1   Horse to beat from the barn of Larry Holt has very good form with a pair of wins in succession in advance of this and rates a huge chance on the drop off the win, after beating optional claimers at Indy most recently. Six-year-old son of King Cugat as a big second on this oval the last time he raced for this type of tag, and his local mark of 17-5-6-3 makes him an obvious player on this main oval off the layoff since the spring. The bay has seven straight top two finishes and is a surefire must use under Perry Outzs.
2   Midnight Legacy 6/1   Ben Delong pupil ran a big one in defeat when second here in preparation of this and slight improvement in here makes this one a prime win player if the top pick fails to fire. Gelded son of Don't Get Mad has been second twice here from five starts and looked pleased to be back at this venue last time with that fine run, for a 17% claiming conditioner. The dark bay has very good tactical speed and figures to get first run on the closers if he's good enough on this day. Corey Orm has the return engagement atop the four-year-old.
4   Touch Me Quick 4/1   Prime Power 3rd has good speed in a field without a ton of pace and could be a danger if left alone on the lead if he clears. Six-year-old son of Alphabet Soup is a two-time winner on this oval and comes in off of a solid fourth at this trip after disputing the pace to midstretch, earning a lifetime best Speed number in the process. Canchano will ride for a barn at 18% on the all weather and 20% in route races. Chance.