Jackpot 5 Analysis - 3/28/2014


Jackpot 5 03/28/2014

Advance Weather Forecast
High 78 Low 76.


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1st JP5 1mAlwOClm $16,000 4yo and up, Purse: $23,800. ( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55/12:55
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum),daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   All Keyed Up 6/1   We loved the win by this son of Keyed Entry last time in finally catching a loose leader all the way down the lane, and he also owns the top Average Speed in this field. Bisnath Parboo trainee is 3-for-10 here and just 1-for-14 elsewhere, and while this one doesn't always fire, he looms large when he does and is pretty versatile in his running style. Barn 25% with a winner last time, and expect the four-year-old to be stalking with first run on the closers.
10   Keyed Cache 8/1   Jerry Bozzo trainee has improved with each lifetime start and comes into this one off of a pair of dominant wins versus a bit cheaper. In-form son of Keyed Entry has had his races spaced out very well in leading up to this and gets a clear draw outside, where his early foot should help him overcome the post. Gelded bay goes for a conditioner good enough at 13% with this type of layoff, and it's hard to not consider this one a contender at a decent price.
3   Sweeping Victory 3/1   Hard to knock the consistency of this one who shows six straight top three finishes, all on this main oval. Javier Negrete trainee has been first or second in 16 of 29 runs here overall, and his late turn of foot is always in play, which could make him very dangerous in this spot with a bunch of early speed signed on. Jose Alvarez gets the nod for a trainer at 14% with a beaten favorite last time.
4   Troubles Comin 5/2   Seven-year-old son of victory Gallop has run some of the better races of his life in three of his last four and he was an easy winner off the claim last time on this main oval. Van Culin trainee goes for a trainer who is 20% with a winner last time out and this one might move up a bit today in this fine form cycle in a pretty winnable spot, with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. Speedy sort will likely be sent early on.
 

2nd JP5 5 1/2f MdnClm $12,500 4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $10,500. ( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25/ 1:25
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum)
#   Horse ML   Comments
7   Patrona Elizabeth 3/1   Prime Power 3rd has speed and has finished pretty well in two of her last three, so she has a shot in this weak field. Four-year-old filly by Sunriver is out of a stakes winner and has a pair of winning siblings from three to race, and the draw here should give the filly a target turning for home, which could aid her chances for success. David Boraco will ride and the Florida-bred could move up second off the layoff.
1   Tricky Woman 3/1   Five-year-old mare by Put it Back is unraced since 2012 but gets a nice draw on the rail and did flash some potential with better prior to the layoff, so she is interesting. Kin to a pair of winners out of a stakes placed dam, the Florida-bred goes for conditioner Mickey Kroger who is 12% off the long layoff and dangerous on the class drop, and this wildcard does own the top Prime Power number in the field. We will consider this one a must use for the unknown.
6   Smooth Tour 2/1   Prime Power 2nd owns the top Average Speed in the field, and though her 18-0-2-0 mark isn't much to write home about, the Leon Minott trainee has run her best two lifetime races leading up to this when second both time, and she looms a logical chance. Five-year-old mare by Express tour is the first out of this dam and we like the recent progression of this mare, who also has speed and could be among the leaders early on. Gets in light with Ridley, 25% for this barn last 60.
 

3rd JP5 About 7 1/2f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3&4&5yo's Fillies and Mares , Purse: $41,000. 4:55/( 3:55)/ 2:55/ 1:55
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / $0.50 Pick 4 (races 6-7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
12   Code Name Ava 4/1   Lasix is added to daughter of 13% grass sire More Than Ready who is a half sister to two winners on turf and who was last seen when fourth at Churchill over a mile in November. $150K yearling purchase is first on BRIS Current and Average Class Last 3 and has been working forwardly for trainer David Carroll who wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Filly can be running from off the pace under Chris Landeros who won with two of his last nine rides for Carroll.
6   La Madera 8/1   Three-year-old has not been seen since finishing unplaced over a mile at Del Mar last August but will make her first start for trainer Steve Asmussen who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. Filly posted a five furlong work in 1:01 4/5 from the gate ten days ago for Asmussen who has won with 21% of his starters at this meet. Daughter of turf sprinter U S Ranger can be a factor with Rosie Napravnik taking the mount.
3   Nice Number 8/1   Newcomer by promising young sire Pioneerof the Nile is out of a mare by top turf influence Sadler's Wells who has produced two winners on grass and will debut for trainer Brad Cox who wins with 23% of his first time starters. Filly has been working well for Cox who has won with 17% of his runners at this meet and bay could be a contender at first asking under Brian Hernandez who won with one of his last five rides for the barn.
2   Teelfa 15/1   Daughter of 13% grass sire Northern Afleet is a half sister to one winner on turf and comes off a third place finish on the main track in her debut here last month. Filly has been working well since her first start for trainer Morris Nicks who wins with 25% of his runners first time on grass and who has won with 18% of his starters at this meet. Filly showed speed in her first start and can be forwardly placed early with Richard Eramia up.
 

4th JP5 1 1/16mAlwOClm $40,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $62,000. 5:14/( 4:14)/ 3:14/ 2:14
Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (races 7-8-9)
#   Horse ML   Comments
4   Fully Living 3/1   Exits a very disappointing effort last out while facing stakes competition in which she finished up the track but she returned from the layoff in the start prior, also against stakes competition, and put in a nice effort in which she took the lead out of the gate but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by 1 1/2 lengths. Trainer George Arnold wins with 18% of his runners making their third start off the layoff and 13% of the allowance races he has a runner in. Jesus Castanon gets the call and he wins 13% of the route races he has a mount in.
5   Ode to a Skylark 6/1   Looks to rebound of an extremely disappointing effort last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition in which she rallied from off the pace but faded badly late to cross the wire in fifth, beaten by 10 lengths. The filly put in much better efforts while facing allowance competition in each of her two starts prior since returning from the layoff which includes a five length victory versus N1X competition. Trainer Brad Cox wins 27% of the route races he has a runner in and 16% of the allowance races.
6   Pappascat 7/2   Stretches out to a route in her second start back from the layoff after putting in a nice effort last out while sprinting in which she rallied from 8 3/4 lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in third, beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Trainer Garry Simms wins with 15% of his runners making their second start off the layoff and 14% of the allowance races he has a runner in. Jon Court gets the call.
2   Seans Silverdancer 9/2   Has been claimed out of each of her last two starts and will be making her first effort for trainer Cody Autrey today after putting in a nice effort last out while facing allowance/optional claiming competition in which she rallied from 5 3/4 lengths off the pace but lacked the needed kick late and crossed the wire in fourth, beaten by 1 1/2 lengths while sprinting. Autrey wins 14% of the time first off the claim and with 27% of his runners having competed in at least two sprints before stretching out to a route. Norberto Arroyo Jr. gets the call and he wins 17% of the route races he has a mount in.
 

5th JP5 6f Clm $7,500 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $15,600. 5:25/( 4:25)/ 3:25/ 2:25
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta,$0.50 Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
#   Horse ML   Comments
2   T Lo 5/1   BRIS Prime Power selection comes off a closing third place finish against better over seven furlongs at Delta Downs early this month and won one of her four previous starts on this track. Daughter of Yes It's True is trained by Keith Desormeaux who wins with 31% of his runners dropping two classes and with 17% of his starters in claiming races and filly can be running from off the pace under Brian Hernandez who won with three of his last five rides for the barn.
4   Eric's Misdeed 9/2   Five-year-old earned top ranking on BRIS Early Pace Last Race when second over five and a half furlongs here earlier this month after being forwardly placed throughout and now has a record of 4-1-1-1 on this track. Trainer Eric Heitzmann wins with 18% of his runners in claiming events and has won with 12% of his starters at this meet and daughter of Champali can be in the early mix under Richard Eramia.
5   Wake Up 6/1   Chestnut is first on BRIS Back Speed and Current Class and comes off an unplaced effort here against better at this distance earlier this month and has won one of her six starts on this track. Daughter of More Than Ready will make her second start for trainer Steve Duke who wins with 12% of his runners in claiming events and who has won with 10% of his starters at this meet and filly can stalking the early leaders with Roman Chapa aboard.