Score with Simon Ticket for 3/26/11

Ticket #1

 

If OVERCOMMUNICATION is anywhere near his 4-5 morning line odds at post time, he`s worth playing against ? in both the win and the show pools (on the off chance that the latter is negative). Hence, I`ll look to beat him with the speedy KHAN OF KHANS, who appears most likely to get the early lead and could wire the field. I`m also going to use BAKHOOR, but in the show spot only. Of course, show bets really only make sense if the horse one is hoping to beat has 75 percent or more of the pool dollars, which I`m hoping will be the case with
Aqueduct, Race 8
2-Khan of Khans (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
6-Bakhoor (6/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
1-Overcommunication (4/5)
Fair Odds: 7-2
$1498 WIN on 2.
$248 SHOW on 2 & 6.
*Ticket Cost: $1994
RESULT: 1-4-2 TICKET RETURNED $372

 

Ticket #2

**4-CODY SAMORA SCRATCHED** Again, I think the morning line odds are way too low on Todd Pletcher`s Quiet Giant, so I`m taking my (our) chances with CODY SAMORA, who has won five of the six times she`s led at the first call. However, for `Cody` to coast, she`s going to need some help from State Treasure, who has the best overall early speed rations (ESRs), but has only led at the opening call in two of her 12 lifetime races. If that one is sent, the favorite is likely to be in the catbird seat and R BETTY GRAYBULL, the only true closer in the field, would have to be given strong consideration as well.

Aqueduct, Race 9
4-Cody Samora (12/1)**SCRATCHED**
Fair Odds: 4-1
1-Quiet Giant (1/1)
Fair Odds: 3-5
6-R Betty Graybull (6/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
$498 SHOW on 6.
*Ticket Cost: $498
RESULT: 6-1-5 TICKET RETURNED $547.80

Ticket #3

Forest Uproar has been able to overcome slow splits in the past (which I am near certain she`ll need to do again today) and should offer value following a third-place finish behind a couple of these rivals on Feb. 26.

Fair Grounds, Race 3
4-Forest Uproar (2/1)
Fair Odds: 5-2
5-Upperline (9/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1
2-Born Indy USA (12/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
$1998 WIN on 4.
*Ticket Cost: $1998
RESULT: 5-3-4 TICKET NOT A WINNER

Ticket #4

I`m almost positive that BIND will generate a negative show pool in this spot and I think that PRIME CUT is clearly the biggest threat to the favorite. Hence, I`ll look to place a high-percentage wager on the latter ? yet one that will light up the tote board if BIND happens to throw a clunker.

Fair Grounds, Race 4
6-Bind (2/5)
Fair Odds: 2-5
2-Prime Cut (4/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
5-Hydro Power (6/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
$1998 SHOW on 2.
*Ticket Cost: $1998
RESULT: 2-6-5 TICKET RETURNED $2,097.90

Ticket #5

Just as the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes often feature opposite pace scenarios ? when one is fast, the other is slow (and vice-versa) ? the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby frequently show a similar tendency. Hence, it`s not outrageous to assume that the ESR of Saturday`s $1 million feature will be quite a bit lower (faster) than the +2 witnessed in this year`s Risen Star ? and that makes MUCHO MACHO MAN a far less enticing option than he was five weeks ago, especially at short odds. So, even though I`m not thrilled by his mini-vacation since capturing the LeComte, I think WILKINSON may be in the best position to take advantage of what I think will probably still be just a moderate pace (-5 ESR or so). I`m also very intrigued by the Kelly Breen entry of NACHO BUSINESS and PANTS ON FIRE. The former makes his stakes debut after recording a -3 LSR in his latest start, while the latter put in a much-better-than-it-looks-on-paper effort when sixth behind `Macho Man` in the Risen Star last time. Pants On Fire attempted to rally from off the pace on Feb. 19 after carving out the fractions in each of his four prior starts. Breaking from the inside today, I would expect the son of Jump Start to show his usual early zip, which makes him a huge threat despite just one four-furlong drill in 35 days.

Fair Grounds, Race 10
9-Wilkinson (8/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
1/1A-Nacho Business & Pants On Fire (10/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
4-Mucho Macho Man (9/5)
Fair Odds: 7-2
$498 WIN 9
$248 PLACE/SHOW on 1/1A Entry
*Ticket Cost: $994
RESULT: 1-2-4 TICKET RETURNED $1562.40











Ticket #6

Although the price is likely to be on the low side, HIGH CRY looks live a strong favorite in this spot. Not only does she possess the best overall LSRs, but she figures to relish today`s added ground as well, being out of Street Cry and Quiet Rumour, who is a daughter of the distance-loving Alleged. I`ll try to pump up the value with some exotic wagers.

Tampa Bay, Race 7
4-High Cry (7/5)
Fair Odds: 6-5
5-No Acronyms (5/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
8-Mud Creek (2/1) Fair Odds: 4-1


$40 TRIFECTA 4 with 5 with 1,2,7,8,9.
*Ticket Cost: $200
RESULT: 9-1-5 TICKET NOT A WINNER

 

Ticket #7

Anybody who watched BLUSHANDBASHFUL`s last race, which featured three of today`s entrants (in addition to `Bashful`), knows just how much talent this three-year-old filly has. In that race, the daughter of Even the Score checked badly twice and altered course down the lane, yet still closed well to finish second and earn an 80 Brisnet speed rating (today`s par is 89) and -3 LSR. BLUE EYED SWEETIE has started just once on the green, but that race produced an astounding +10 LSR for a horse that had great prior dirt form as well.

Tampa Bay, Race 9
2-Blushandbashful (6/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
1-Blue Eyed Sweetie (8/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
3-My Redbyrd (3/1) Fair Odds: 6-1

$1198 WIN on 2.

$798 WIN 1
*Ticket Cost: $1996
RESULT: 3-2-4 TICKET NOT A WINNER

Ticket #8

JOHN`S LOVE TOO had a troubled trip last time at a distance ? eight furlongs ? that probably isn`t her best. Today, she`s back sprinting and, should she repeat her debut effort (85 Brisnet speed figure, -4 LSR), she should be home free. I so badly wanted to make QUEEN YAMILE my top choice? yeah, she`s a little light on speed, but she does rank among the top three in today`s field in both overall ESRs and LSRs. Better still, she appears to be improving. So what`s the problem? It`s spelled B-E-H-R-E-N-S. No, not the former great horse, I`m referring to trainer Ronald Behrens, otherwise known as the guy who`s 2-for-87 with horses that are raising in class ? horses like Queen Yamile.

Tampa Bay, Race 10
8-John`s Love Too (5/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
1-Queen Yamile (20/1)
Fair Odds: 10-1
7-Getting Out Quick (7/2)**SCRATCHED**
Fair Odds: 7-2
$10 EXACTA KEY BOX 1,8 with 1,3,6,8.

$4 TRIFECTA 1 with 6,8 with 3,6,8
$8 TRIFECTA 8 with 1,6 with 1,3,6
*Ticket Cost: $168
RESULT: 5-6-2 TICKET NOT A WINNER
FINAL BANKROLL: $4,580.10