2024 Breeders' Cup: Will Double payoffs rebound?

A year ago in this space, I wrote that a major emphasis of my wagering plan for the 2023 Breeders' Cup would be to focus more attention on the rolling and two-day Double wagers offered on the weekend.

Although a seemingly good idea at the time of publishing, it all backfired in a sense. The reason? Breeders' Cup Saturday at Santa Anita turned out to be one of the chalkiest days, if not the most, in the 40-year history of the event.

Of the nine Breeders' Cup-branded races, seven were won by the post-time favorite. It would have been officially eight if Master of The Seas had just a few dollars more bet on him to win than Songline in the Mile (G1). The final odds on both were 3.30-1.

Of the 16 Double wagers offered linking two Breeders' Cup races, all but three involved at least one winning post-time favorite. Favorites won both legs in six of the 16 Doubles.

The average $1 payoff on all Doubles was $40.53, a 26% drop from 2022 when the average payoff was nearly $55. If you remove the one outlier Double payoff, the $224.90 return linking Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner Hard to Justify and Juvenile (G1) winner Fierceness, the average Double playoff plummeted further to $28.24.

Breeders' Cup weekend, traditionally, has been viewed by bettors as a major opportunity to score boxcar payoffs in highly liquid pools. While it's sometimes nice to see the best horses win the best races, as a bettor, this turn of events was highly frustrating if not a bit annoying.

I can't say it was all bad news. My endorsement of Fierceness and White Abarrio in the two-day Double linking the Juvenile and Classic returned $62.60, the third-highest Double payoff of the weekend. But we all want to cash more, don't we?

The plan is to take the same emphasis on Double pools in several weeks when Del Mar hosts the Breeders' Cup on Nov. 1-2. Unless the event turns out to be as ridiculously formful as it was 12 months ago, I expect the returns on investment to be significantly higher.

Check back in this space Breeders' Cup week for my recommended Double plays and other insights.