How Keeler Johnson is betting the 2026 Kentucky Derby
As I outlined when sharing my fair odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1), I view this year’s Run for the Roses as a wide-open race with many possible win contenders.
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J. Keeler Johnson
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast who was drawn to the sport by Curlin's quest to become North America's richest racehorse.
Picks and plays for the 2026 Kentucky Derby undercard
Saturday’s Kentucky Derby Day card at Churchill Downs is packed from start to finish with high-quality and competitive races.
Kentucky Derby
Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Churchill, Santa Anita
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 30 at Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park, along with horses to play in Super High 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita.
Gulfstream Park
Which running style wins the most Kentucky Derbys: Frontrunners, stalkers, or closers?
When 20 talented racehorses vie for victory in the Kentucky Derby (G1), which running style is most likely to succeed?
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2026 Kentucky Derby purse: How much prize money the winning jockey will earn
The jockey who rides the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is set to receive a six-figure payday.
Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby Purse: How much prize money will the winning owner and trainer earn?
Have you ever wondered how much prize money the owner of a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner receives? Or what the payday for the winning trainer looks like?
Kentucky Derby
Pace could aid Japan’s T O Elvis in Churchill Downs Stakes
The Churchill Downs (G1), a seven-furlong sprint held on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard at Churchill Downs, has an international flavor this year.
Analysis
2026 Kentucky Derby: Which horses are bred to handle mud?
As of Wednesday, the weather forecast for Kentucky Derby (G1) day at Churchill Downs looks dry. But you never know when a rainstorm might pop up and change the picture.
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Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes at Churchill Downs
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 29 at Churchill Downs, including plays in the Kentucky Juvenile S. and Isaac Murphy Marathon S.
Best Bets
What are payouts? Here’s the math and how you can use them in betting
In horse racing betting, what are payouts? How do payouts work? And how can you use them to place smarter bets?
Analysis
2026 Kentucky Derby purse: How much prize money the winning jockey will earn
The jockey who rides the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is set to receive a six-figure payday.
Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby Purse: How much prize money will the winning owner and trainer earn?
Have you ever wondered how much prize money the owner of a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner receives? Or what the payday for the winning trainer looks like?
Kentucky Derby
Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $58,481 Pick 5 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, April 28 at Churchill Downs, along with horses to play in the $58,481 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise.
Best Bets
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Robusta
Among the horses entered in the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1), one of the most fascinating from a pedigree standpoint is Robusta.
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Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Finger Lakes opening day
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 27 at Finger Lakes and Turf Paradise, including a trio of exactas.
Best Bets
Gulfstream: How to bet the $12,915 Super High 5 carryover
If you want to win a share of Sunday’s $12,915 Super High 5 carryover at Gulfstream Park, you’ll have to decipher Race 10, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf.
Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park: Horses to bet in the mandatory-payout $266,215 Pick 6 carryover
Gulfstream Park is celebrating April’s final weekend in a big way. Saturday’s stakes-packed card includes the mandatory payout of a $266,215 carryover in the 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6.
Gulfstream Park
2026 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Late Pace rating report
Brisnet Late Pace ratings are a powerful tool for identifying key win contenders and live longshots in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
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Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $44,695 Pick 6 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 24 at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park, including horses to single in Keeneland $44,695 Pick 6 carryover.
Best Bets
Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Hawthorne Pick 6 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 23 at Keeneland, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park, along with horses to single in the $285 Pick 6 carryover at Hawthorne.
Gulfstream Park
Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $54,038 Pick 6 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 22, at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in Keeneland’s $54,038 Pick 6 carryover.
Best Bets
How to calculate fair odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby
The wide-open nature of the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) makes calculating a mathematically sound fair odds line more important than ever.
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Kentucky Derby Roundup: Final field taking shape
The 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) is 11 days away. Catch up on the latest news and notes as the first Saturday in May draws closer:
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Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Ocelli
A rallying third-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2) launched Ocelli into the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) picture.
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The Smartest Bet in Horse Racing: 4 Strategies for Success
What is the smartest bet in horse racing? The answer is both incredibly complex and surprisingly simple.
Education
Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cox first-timer at 3-1
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, April 21 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Will Rogers Downs, and Turf Paradise, including a first-time starter trained by Brad Cox.
Best Bets
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Stark Contrast
Does Stark Contrast have the pedigree to handle racing on dirt in the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1)?
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Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mountaineer’s $1,550 Super High 5 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 20, at Thistledown, Will Rogers Downs, and Turf Paradise, along with a ticket for the $1,550 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.
Best Bets
Oaklawn Park: Horses to bet in the $27,923 Pick 6 carryover
The $1 Classix Pick 6 at Oaklawn Park went unsolved on Saturday, triggering a $27,923 carryover into Sunday’s card.
Oaklawn Park
Analyzing rich Pick 6 carryovers at Aqueduct and Woodbine
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to bet in a pair of lucrative Pick 6 carryovers on Saturday at Woodbine and Aqueduct.
Wagering