Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 4, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 4 at Aqueduct and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a pair of Grade 2 stakes.
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J. Keeler Johnson
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast who was drawn to the sport by Curlin's quest to become North America's richest racehorse.
Subtle class drops between tracks can yield winning bets
Knowing the ins and outs of racing quality in a given state or region can generate winning plays when horses from a major track take on easier competition at a minor track.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 3, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a 5-1 shot with a regal pedigree.
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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Stronghold is strong
Three maiden special weights at Churchill Downs last week produced possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and/or Road to the Kentucky Derby contenders.
Breeders Cup
Breeders’ Cup Roundup: Oct. 2, 2023
Half of this week’s Breeders’ Cup qualifying action took place at ParisLongchamp in France, where a quintet of Group 1 races awarded “Win and You’re In” tickets.
Breeders Cup
Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Oct. 2, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 2 at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle Downs, including horses to play in the $2,316 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.
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Churchill: Singles for the mandatory-payout $150,260 Pick 6 carryover
Sunday is closing day of the Churchill Downs September meet, which means the $150,260 jackpot carryover in the 20-cent “Derby City 6” Pick 6 is slated for a mandatory payout.
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Churchill Downs: How to bet the $9,774 Super High 5 carryover
$9,774. That’s the size of the non-jackpot Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Saturday’s opening race at Churchill Downs. It’s not quite five figures, but it’s close, and it’s an enticing prize pool.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 29, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Sept. 29 at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita, including a win bet capitalizing on the Churchill Downs $10 Money Back promotion.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 28, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Sept. 28 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, including horses to play in carryovers at Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 27, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Sept. 27 at Presque Isle Downs, Delaware Park, and Churchill Downs, along with tickets for the $2,706 Super High 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
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Identifying versatile sires can lead to lucrative payoffs
When a male racehorse enjoys success racing over a particular surface (dirt, turf, or synthetic), it’s easy to assume his progeny will follow suit. But sometimes they prove more versatile than expected.
Analysis
Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 26
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Sept. 26 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, including a 10-1 longshot.
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Breeders’ Cup Roundup: Sept. 25, 2023
Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown is expected to target the Breeders’ Cup, with both the Classic (G1) and the shorter Dirt Mile (G1) being viable options.
Breeders Cup
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Asmussen trainees score at Churchill
A pair of second-time starters from the Steve Asmussen barn graduated in seven-furlong maiden special weights at Churchill Downs last Friday, emerging as possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and/or Road to the Kentucky Derby contenders.
Breeders Cup
Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays Sept. 25
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Sept. 25 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, along with tickets for the $1,722 Super High 5 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.
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Carryovers: Churchill’s $10,457 Super High 5, Aqueduct’s $62,294 Pick 6
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a pair of Sunday carryovers at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct.
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Parx: How to bet the mandatory-payout $264,765 Pick 5 carryover
Saturday is shaping up as an awesome day of racing at Parx. The betting action is made lucrative by the mandatory payout of a $264,765 carryover in the 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5 wager.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 22
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Sept. 22 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, along with a horse to single in the $4,300 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 21
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Sept. 21 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in the $86,515 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.
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Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 20
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Sept. 20 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Delaware Park.
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When betting lightly raced juveniles, analyze the horses they’ve run against
When handicapping lightly raced juveniles who have only run one or two times, it’s helpful to examine the quality of horses they’ve competed against to get a feel for which runners are coming out of high-quality races.
Analysis
First-crop sires: State-bred winners keep Maximus Mischief hot
One month has passed since we introduced Maximus Mischief as the early leader among first-crop sires of 2023. It’s safe to say he remains a dominant force among young stallions.
Pedigree
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: West Saratoga
It’s only fitting that West Saratoga won the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, the first leg of the 2023-24 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The gray colt is bred top and bottom for success in the spring classics.
Triple Crown
Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 19
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Sept. 19 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a ticket for the $5,188 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.
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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Maiden Watch: Private Desire posts fast win
Seven weeks out from the 2023 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) contenders continue to emerge from maiden special weights around the country.
Breeders Cup
Breeders’ Cup Roundup: Sept. 18, 2023
The Saturday card at Woodbine in Canada featured three Grade 1 stakes awarding “Win and You’re In” berths to the Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders Cup
Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays Sept. 18
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Sept. 18 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Presque Isle Downs, and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $1,567 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.
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Churchill Downs: How to bet the $5,188 Super High 5 carryover
No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in Saturday’s final race at Churchill Downs, which means there’s a $5,188 carryover up for grabs on Sunday.
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Aqueduct: A single for the $33,630 Pick 6 carryover
The Saturday card at Aqueduct (branded as “Belmont at the Big A”) just got more interesting. The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up an enticing $33,630 non-jackpot carryover.
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