Grade 3 Regret Stakes trends and field analysis

May 29th, 2024

Churchill Downs will host the 55th running of the $275,000 Regret S. (G3) on Saturday, June 1, as part of the 11-race Stephen Foster Preview Day card. First run in 1970, the Regret is named after the filly who became the first female runner to win the Kentucky Derby in 1915.

The inaugural running of the Regret was held at six furlongs on the dirt and remained at the sprint distance until 1982, when the race stretched out to a mile. In 1987, the event moved to the turf, and in 2002, the distance again changed, this time to 1 1/16 miles. It has been run at 1 1/8 miles on the grass since 2003.

Bill Mott, who most recently won in 2020 with Harvey’s Lil Goil, owns the record for most victories by a trainer, with four, while Julien Leparoux is the leading jockey with four wins as well. Leparoux last reached the winner’s circle in the Regret in 2022 with Walkathon and also notched victories in 2006, 2008, and 2015.

Ten-year trends in Regret S.

Dating back to 2014, no trainer has managed multiple victories in the time span and only one jockey has been a multiple winner in the past decade — Leparoux.

The fastest winning time in the last decade is 1:47.62, accomplished by Dale Romans-trained Sweeping Paddy under Luis Saez in 2017. The overall fastest winning time in the Regret at the distance of 1 1/18 miles is 1:47.31, clocked by Lady of Venice (FR) in 2006. Her trainer Patrick L. Biancone returned the next year with winner Good Mood (IRE), who earned the next-fastest time at 1 1/8 miles, stopping the timer at 1:47.57.

Three times in the last 10 years, post-time favorites have crossed the wire first, but one of those favorites — A Little Bit Sassy in 2014 — was disqualified from first and placed fourth for interference. The longest shot to win in the last decade was Harvey’s Lil Goil at 11-1, followed by Prado’s Sweet Ride at 9.50-1 in 2015.

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Regret trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Regret Stakes horse-by-horse analysis

Race 9, Regret S. (G3), 1 1/8 miles (turf), 3yo fillies (4:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Way to Be Marie (3-1) — The Not This Time filly has traded first- and second-place finishes in her last five starts, most recently placing a half-length second in the 1 1/16-mile Edgewood (G2) at Churchill over yielding turf. She clocked a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed figure in the effort — the highest last race speed figure among today’s field — under regular rider Florent Geroux, who will retain the mount. Trainer Rob Atras is an 18% winner with turf starts and an 11% winner in graded stakes.

#2 Everland (20-1) — Daughter of Arrogate tries turf for the second time in her career. Her lone previous effort on the grass resulted in a distant sixth in a one-mile maiden special weight. The gray filly was last seen coming home a 12-length fifth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at today’s distance on the dirt. She raced on all-weather in six starts prior to her Oaks appearance. Trainer Eric Foster is 22-1-1-2 this meet and strikes at just a 5% rate going from dirt to turf. Abel Cedillo will stay in the saddle and is 9-for-30 on the grass.

#3 Gavea (30-1) — The German-bred filly won on debut in a seven-furlong turf event at Chantilly, then shipped to the U.S. and got up to win by a head in a one-mile allowance at Churchill. Last out, she stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and was eased home in the Chelsey Flower S. She’s making her return off a more than seven-month layoff for Al Stall Jr., who’s a 14% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days but 1-for-20 this meet. Julien Leparoux will pick up the mount.

#4 Dancing N Dixie (7-2) — Late closer rallied to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths in the Edgewood and will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles here. The gray filly has finished third in her last three, all on turf, and has not won since November, when she triumphed in the one-mile and 70-yard Our Dear Peggy S. on Gulfstream’s all-weather track. Mark Casse is a 12% winner in graded stakes. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount and is winning at a 16% rate this meet. The three-year-old put in a bullet four-furlong workout on May 22. She’s clocked BRIS figures in the 92-93 range in her last three and may improve with the added distance.

#5 Poolside with Slim (8-1) — Irish-bred is 1-for-4 for her career with a dominant gate-to-wire win on Gulfstream’s all-weather. She finished fourth and fifth in two turf tries, both against graded stakes company. The Churchill daughter set the early pace but gave way to finish a six-length fifth in the Appalachian (G2) to today’s race rival Buchu last out on April 6. Rusty Arnold is a 10% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days and a 13% winner in graded stakes. Brian Hernandez Jr. (19% winner this meet) will stay in the saddle.

#6 Buchu (5-2) — Justify filly won two back in the Appalachian, then weakened to finish sixth in the Edgewood. Phil Bauer is a 22% winner third start off the layoff and a 20% winner in graded stakes. Regular rider Martin Garcia, a 22% winner at Churchill, is aboard, and Buchu put in a bullet four-furlong workout May 25.

#7 Hello Hollywood (8-1) — Oscar Performance filly raced at 7 1/2 furlongs in her first three career starts, earning her lone victory at second asking. She stretched out to 1 3/16 miles last out in an allowance at Keeneland and was beaten by a neck while clocking a career-best 90 BRIS figure. Brian Lynch is an 18% winner with second starts at a route, and Irad Ortiz Jr. (22% on turf) will regain the mount. 

#8 Sassy Princess (8-1) — Cairo Prince filly took four tries to break her maiden and accomplished the task racing today’s distance on the turf back in March. She then faced allowance company at Keeneland and had the lead through the stretch but was bested late to finish fourth by a neck at 1 3/16 miles. She may improve at the shorter distance and looked sharp in a recent four-furlong workout. Brendan Walsh is a 14% winner this meet, and Flavien Prat will retain the mount.

#9 Pin Up Betty (15-1) — Constitution filly graduated last out in her eighth career start in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Churchill on May 9. Her 84 BRIS figure is a bit light compared to today’s rivals, but she’s eligible to step forward third start off a layoff for Mike Maker, a 26% winner this meet. Luis Saez will stay in the saddle and has won eight of 29 races paired up with Maker over the last two months.

#10 Faith Understood (15-1) — Early pacesetter by Catholic Boy had the lead through the second call before she was outkicked to finish second in the one-mile Memories of Silver S. at Aqueduct. She won two back in a 1 3/16-mile maiden special weight when sitting just off the pace over a Keeneland track labeled good and recorded a career-best 87 BRIS figure. Jonathan Thomas is a 22% winner with routes, and John Velazquez (24-1-3-6 this meet) will pick up the mount.