How to bet With, and Against, Kinza in the Santa Ysabel Stakes

March 8th, 2024

Michael Lund Petersen’s unbeaten #4 Kinza (4-5) is the headliner for Saturday’s $100,000 Santa Ysabel S. (G3) at Santa Anita. The 1 1/16-mile affair on the main oval attracted an encouraging field of eight sophomore fillies, but the race will go through the Bob Baffert trainee.

Kinza – With

  • $2 superfecta: 4 with 5,6 with 5,6 with all ($20)
  • $2 superfecta: 4 with 5,6 with all with 5,6 ($20)
  • $1 superfecta: 4 with all with 5,6 with 5,6 ($10)

Kinza – Against

  • $25 win: #6 Nay V Belle ($25)
    $1 trifecta: 5,6 with 4,5,6 with all ($24)

Purchased for $350,000 as a juvenile, the daughter of Carpe Diem ran away to a 7 1/2-length victory in her first offering in December on the oval, and she followed that up with a convincing tally in the Las Virgenes S. (G3) in her most recent run. The New York-bred defeated a fine prospect in that affair, and in doing so she also answered the question if she can handle added ground. She is the pace of the race and a likely gate-to-wire winner if she moves forward in her third career appearance.

With that said, I came away super impressed with the first-out victory registered by #6 Nay V Belle (4-1), who appears to be a very good prospect. Trained by Mark Glatt and purchased for $200,000 as a two-year-old, the daughter of Midshipman was unhurried early in a 6 1/2-furlong dash on the oval, prior to putting in a powerful closing kick to win by two lengths in a visually impressive effort.

The chestnut can succeed in the heat, if Kinza gets softened up early on, or if the filly shows more tactical speed to stay in range leading up to the turn for home. Frankie Dettori will be in the controls.

If the addition of blinkers aids Las Virgenes (G3) third, #5 She’s A Tempest (8-1), then she is another who will be in the mix down the lane. The Connect filly has never run a bad one in her lifetime, and I’ll admit that I was surprised how well she stayed on in her latest offering behind a fine top duo. The top-three threat has posted a pair of swift drills in advance of Saturday and wouldn’t be a major surprise to me with regular pilot Tiago Pereira retaining the mount.