Kentucky Derby Preview: Future Wager Pool 3 – March 22, 2013

The final Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool is this weekend and for the first time this year, the field will most likely not be favored. The undefeated Verrazano was 11-1 in pool one, 9-1 in pool two, but will open the wagering as the morning line favorite at 7-2. The son of More Than Ready is a perfect three-for-three in his career including a three-length win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Now, there is still a long way to go until the Derby and there is value to be had.

Following Verrazano are the Field then Itsmyluckyday, Orb and Vyjack at 10-1 with Flashback two points back at 12-1. Vyjack and Orb look like two contenders for the Derby and currently sit tied for second on the Derby points leaderboard. Vyjack is four-for-four in his career with wins in the Grade 2 Jerome and Grade 3 Gotham, both over the inner dirt at Aqueduct. Vyjack looks to be adaptable to any pace scenario even though he is bit of a head case. It will be interesting to see how he handles the crowd and noise at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. Orb won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in his last start over Violence. Orb is a late runner that will need to overcome traffic in the Derby.

Flashback, at 12-1, is interesting, because if he wins or runs well in the Santa Anita Derby then he is likely to be less than that come Derby time. The caveat is that he may just be a run-off horse as shown with his suicidal duel in the San Felipe. He will need to relax in his next start.

Now, on top of the Derby point list is Will Take Charge, who just won the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn at 28-1 over his stablemate Oxbow. Of the two, perhaps Oxbow deserves the Pool 3 wager. By Awesome Again, Oxbow is bred to get the mile and one-quarter distance and has not exactly gotten the best of the post position draw in his last two races. Likely to go higher than his 20-1 line, Oxbow looks to be a live long shot.

Pool three opens on Friday, March 22 at Noon and ends on Sunday, March 24 at 6:00 PM. This weekend the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on Sunday is the only major prep race for three-year-olds.