Racing Roundtable: Citizen Bull's three-year-old debut, more Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep results

February 4th, 2025

This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses Citizen Bull's win in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), the results of the other Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) prep action from the weekend, and what else caught their eye in racing.

Is Citizen Bull the one to beat in the Kentucky Derby?

James Scully:  Citizen Bull is the most accomplished three-year-old male and confirmed himself as a major Kentucky Derby (G1) contender winning Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis by nearly four lengths. And if you guarantee an uncontested lead and moderate pace in the May 3 Kentucky Derby, Citizen Bull figures to make the most of it. He’s thrived with easy trips in the last three starts, winning the Lewis, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and American Pharoah (G1) by open lengths after receiving little-to-no pressure dictating terms, but I want to see him face a legitimate pace scenario. 

Citizen Bull appears built for longer distances and has a lot going for him. The classy colt may carry his form forward under adverse circumstances, but that’s the next challenge.

Vance Hanson: As the reigning two-year-old champion in the midst of a three-race win streak, he remains the primary target. But I don't think we learned a whole lot more about him as his victory in the Robert B. Lewis was similar in style, if not substance, to those in the American Pharoah and Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Lewis might have been an opportunity for him to demonstrate his rating prowess, but after stumbling at the start, he proved too keen and was allowed to set the pace as his custom. His main rivals, both stablemates, were conceding a lot of experience and simply weren't up to the task of seriously challenging him.

Citizen Bull so far is one of the classiest and fastest individuals in the crop, but aside from that aforementioned stumble, he hasn't had to overcome any major adversity. He must continue to be respected, but I would not classify him yet as the absolute one to beat.

Ashley Anderson: It’s still too early to say whether he’s the one to beat in the Kentucky Derby, let alone whether he’s the best three-year-old in Bob Baffert’s barn. While Citizen Bull improved his record to 4-for-5 with a 3 3/4-length gate-to-wire victory in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis, he had little adversity to overcome in his three-year-old debut and defeated four rivals, including two stablemates, while setting fairly soft, easy fractions. Baffert has dominated the Robert B. Lewis, winning the last seven editions, all with post-time favorites, so Citizen Bull’s triumph should come as no surprise in the prep.

That said, Baffert noted the Lewis was only a comeback prep for Citizen Bull and that he was not “cranked up totally.” Baffert also stated that runner-up Rodriguez, in his third career start, was a “little bit confused” and needs more racing but was impressed by his ability to re-rally when appearing at first to drop out of contention into the far turn.

As far as public perception, $3.2 million yearling purchase Barnes is the most hyped from Baffert’s barn and closed as the 6-1 top individual betting choice in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW). Citizen Bull was the next-shortest price from Baffert’s barn, at 17-1, followed by Rodriguez (22-1); Gaming (38-1); San Saba (44-1); Madaket Road (47-1), who was third in the Lewis; Romanesque (79-1), a distant runner-up to Barnes in the San Vicente (G2); Getaway Car (83-1); and Varney (80-1).

Who impressed you most from the Derby and Oaks prep action?

JS: Burnham Square didn’t break sharply and got bumped around on both turns, but he unleashed a sensational late run to win the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull going away by 1 3/4 lengths. A gelded son of Liam’s Map, Burnham Square netted triple-digit Brisnet Speed (101) and Late Pace (100) numbers in his stakes debut, and he’s won two straight since Ian Wilkes added blinkers.

He came up a little short in his first two starts from off the pace, beaten less than a length when finishing second at Keeneland and third at Churchill Downs, and Wilkes came away frustrated.

“The key is the blinkers,” said Wilkes, an assistant to Hall of Famer Carl Nafzger when he trained Kentucky Derby winners Unbridled and Street Sense. “I had to put the blinkers on because he wasn’t helping me at all. I had to help him. He wouldn’t help the jockey. He wouldn’t start running in the race. He’d run away from horses, wouldn’t run into the dirt. He did everything wrong.”

It’s not fair to compare Burnham Square, who will target the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1, to any former classic winners yet, but I’m always reminded of Empire Maker when horses improve form adding blinkers.

A debut winner in October 2002, Empire Maker trained forwardly in California for the Remsen (G2) six weeks later but broke poorly and finished a one-paced third as the favorite. Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel shipped his pupil back to California and Empire Maker recorded consecutive six-furlong bullet workouts in advance of the Sham S. in early February, but the dark bay son of Unbridled disappointed in second as the 2-5 choice.

Frankel added blinkers and Empire Maker won the Florida Derby (G1) by about 10 lengths in his next start. After defeating Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial (G1), Empire Maker was compromised by a bruised foot during Kentucky Derby week, winding up a gallant second to Funny Cide in the Run for the Roses. He earned a measure of revenge five weeks later, winning the Belmont (G1) to snap Funny Cide’s Triple Crown bid, and blinkers made a big difference for mighty Empire Maker.

VH: No one typically expects the Derby winner to have won or placed in the Withers S. beforehand, but Captain Cook deserves some notice after his victory at Aqueduct. He displayed good tactical foot while stretching out from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, made a nice move to the lead turning from home, and won comfortably in the end while earning a relatively strong 100 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Rick Dutrow obviously knows how to get a horse without many miles on him to win the Derby, having conditioned Big Brown to victory in 2008 in his fourth start. Captain Cook would have five going into Louisville if he runs effectively in his next expected start, the Wood Memorial (G2) in early April.

A leading caveat with Captain Cook is his pedigree. His sire, Practical, Joke has so far been more effective getting sprinters and milers, while Captain Cook's dam had her only stakes-placing in the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G3). One bit of good news is that Captain Cook's third dam, champion Bird Town, managed to win the Kentucky Oaks over nine furlongs and her half-brother Birdstone famously won the Belmont S. (G1) and Travers (G1).

AA: Burnham Square in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3). The son of Liam’s Map earned the highest Brisnet Speed figure (101) among the winners of the three Kentucky Derby prep races over the weekend, as well as a 121 Class Rating when defeating six rivals in a final time of 1:43.60. The Ian Wilkes trainee was coming off a nine-length maiden romp at the same distance as the Holy Bull and had everything his own way two starts prior when drawing the rail post. On Saturday, he was in the opposite position, breaking from the far outside and dropping back about seven lengths in last before moving to the rail and making up ground along the inside. He bumped with a rival near the half-mile, then made progress two wide around the far turn before angling out four wide. He then got up near the sixteenth pole and drove clear to beat post-time favorite Tappan Street by 1 3/4 lengths.

Burnham Square kicked off his career with a half-length second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, then was beaten three-quarters of a length in third in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in November. Following that start, Wilkes shipped Burnham Square to Gulfstream, where he picked up rider Edgard Zayas, and added blinkers. The result has been a two-win streak for Burnham Square, who is owned and bred by Whitham Thoroughbreds. 

Runner-up Tappan Street was making just his second career start, and trainer Brad Cox was pleased with his effort in spite of a wide trip. The third-place finisher, Burning Glory, was another 9 1/4 lengths back from Tappan Street, followed by 2.30-1 choice Ferocious, who tried blinkers for the first time since his troubled fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: A sharp winner in her first two starts sprinting, Eclatant did not favor the stretch to turns in the Golden Rod (G2) last fall, weakening to be a well-beaten third, but she showed her affinity for shorter distances when returning in the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G2), getting up to edge stablemate Stunner. The runner-up is also a one-turn specialist, winning the Tempted S. by open lengths at a one-turn mile but weakening to second in her lone two-turn attempt, and Brad Cox said the fillies will focus upon one-turn events like the Test (G1), Eight Belles (G2) and Beaumont (G2) this spring/summer.

Gulfstream runs its first two Kentucky Oaks preps, the Forward Gal and Davona Dale (G2) on March 1, at one-turn distances, which sets up perfectly for fillies who may not be targeting races like the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks.

River Thames, a nice debut winner over well-regarded Vanderbilt at Gulfstream Jan. 11, improved to 2-for-2 with a 6 1/2-length romp over entry-level allowance rivals at one-turn mile on Saturday. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt earned a shot at a Kentucky Derby qualifier, but River Thames is by McLean’s Music and out of a speed-oriented female family, so it’s fair to question his threshold for longer distances at this stage.

I’ll also mention Kopion, who looks poised to be a major factor in the older female sprint division following her victory in Saturday’s Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. The Richard Mandella-trained filly returned from an 8 1/2-month layoff with an upset win in December’s La Brea (G1), dominating by nearly three lengths, and her only career losses have come in a pair of two-turn attempts. Now 4-for-4 at one turn, Kopion registered a 106 Brisnet Speed rating for her 4 1/2-length decision, and she’ll be targeting the Derby City Distaff (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard this spring.

VH: The Swale S. at Gulfstream on Saturday turned out much different than bettors anticipated when well-backed second-time starters Gunmetal and Grayscale both flopped, albeit after exchanging bumps with each other at the start. The ultimate beneficiary was Gate to Wire, who didn't run to his name by coming from off the pace but sure looked at home in his first-ever attempt on the dirt, winning by five lengths at odds of 13-1.

Gate to Wire began his career on grass, placed in the Futurity (G3) in his second start, and then had a troubled trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). Further hiding his form going into the Swale was a nondescript fifth in a Tapeta allowance over a too-short five-furlong distance. Gate to Wire has the potential to be a very effective horse in all the major one-turn races for three-year-olds on either dirt or turf this season and is one to keep an eye on.

AA: A pair of female turf runners impressed in Florida this weekend, starting with Saffron Moon, a Chad Brown trainee who not only scored her first stakes victory in the 1 1/16-mile Endeavour (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday but did so in stakes record time. The six-year-old daughter of Malibu Moon closed late before drawing away to prevail by 2 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock at 1:39.92 over turf labeled firm. That final time set a new stakes record and was just three-fifths of a second off the course record at Tampa. Flavien Prat was aboard the Brown runner, who is now 4-for-10 lifetime with $339,625 in earnings. Saffron Moon began her career on the dirt in August of 2021 but did not break her maiden until her fourth career start and first on turf, in a one-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland in April of 2022. From there, she won two of her next three starts facing allowance company, then jumped up to graded stakes competition in the 1 1/8-mile Cardinal S. (G3) at Churchill, where she was a 10-length second to Star Fortress. In her subsequent start, she dropped down to allowance company and won by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles during the Keeneland fall meet before earning her first stakes win at Tampa Bay on Saturday. 

Elsewhere in Florida, a notable three-year-old on the turf made her season debut a winning one when Vixen rolled to a 2 1/4-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Sweetest Chant at Gulfstream. The daughter of Vekoma won or placed in three of four starts as a two-year-old, with her lone out-of-the-money finish a good sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last November. On Saturday, the Mark Casse pupil kicked off her sophomore season at Gulfstream and beat five rivals in a final time of 1:40.32. It was faster than the winning time at the same distance by three-year-old Charlie’s to Blame, who covered 1 1/16 miles in 1:40.48 when winning the Kitten’s Joy by a head later on the card.

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