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Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 27
J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 27 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Gulfstream Park, along with a single and a live longshot in the $28,675 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 27, 2023
Jason discusses a myriad of items around racing and betting to open the show. Talks a little bit of Belterra Park opening day as well as Keeneland wrapping up and Churchill kicking off on Saturday.
Racing Podcast
Wild On Ice – Kentucky Derby Context
Wild On Ice earned the qualifying points for a Kentucky Derby bid when recording a 35-1 upset in the Sunland Derby (G3) in late March, rallying from just off the pace to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths.
Kentucky Derby
Analyzing 30 years of Kentucky Derby pace fractions
Once upon a time, the Kentucky Derby was a race in which any running style could regularly succeed. But times have changed.
Kentucky Derby
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch April 27 to May 1
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Sun Thunder – Kentucky Derby Context
Sun Thunder will need the right set up; the one-dimensional late runner will be rallying from off the pace in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
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Raise Cain – Kentucky Derby Context
Raise Cain stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket in March’s Gotham (G3) over a one-turn mile, overcoming trouble to win going away by 7 1/2 lengths over a muddy Aqueduct track, but the late runner hasn’t displayed the same gusto in a pair of two-turn starts.
Kentucky Derby
Jace's Road – Kentucky Derby Context
Jace’s Road led all the way on slow fractions when romping in December’s Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, and the bay colt will attempt to race close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Reincarnate – Kentucky Derby Context
A frontrunning winner of January’s Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, Reincarnate will look to show speed from the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Kentucky Derby
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 26
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 26 at Will Rogers Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, plus tickets for the $32,747 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Wednesday, April 26
We've got eight races to kick off the final week of the Keeneland Spring Meet!
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 26, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing the Racing Hall of Fame announcements. Then we welcome in the voice of the Kentucky Derby, Travis Stone, to the show to talk about this year's races, calling the big race, and much more!
Racing Podcast
Catching My Eye: Brian Hernandez Jr. and Reylu Gutierrez at Keeneland
Two jockeys had big days at Keeneland on Saturday. Brian Hernandez Jr. won three races including piloting home 13-1 Aunt Becca, and Rey Gutierrez bagged two, most impressively aboard 12-1 Front Run the Fed.
Analysis
When it comes to trainer stats, nuance matters
Trainer stats are among the most valuable tools horseplayers have at their disposal. But a trainer’s overall win percentage is only one part of the story.
Analysis
Keeler Johnson's Top 5 contenders to watch for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Less than two weeks out from the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), here’s where I’m leaning with my top five Derby contenders.
Triple Crown
Racing Roundtable: Red Route One and Oaklawn Handicap
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss Red Route One's Preakness hopes, the Oaklawn H. (G2), and what else caught their eye in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Preakness Stakes
Mucciolo: 3 Interesting Kentucky Derby Horses I'm Watching
Numerous horses have piqued my interest this season for the Kentucky Derby in what appears to be one of the more competitive fields in recent memory.
Kentucky Derby
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 25
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Will Rogers Downs, including a trifecta in pursuit of the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 25, 2023
Jason opens up the show talking about some current news from around the racing world. Then we welcome in Neil Greenberg from the Washington Post to talk about covering racing and sports betting, what he's learned from writing about those topics, and much more!
Racing Podcast
Disarm – Kentucky Derby Context
Disarm has the look of an up-and-comer, a promising colt starting to figure things out following placings in his first two stakes appearances, and he will need to take a significant step forward to challenge in the Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby
Lord Miles – Kentucky Derby Context
Lord Miles will look to back up a game win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, outfinishing a pair of fancied rivals to record a nose upset at 59-1
Kentucky Derby
Confidence Game – Kentucky Derby Context
After leading all the way in his first two wins, Confidence Game showed his versatility winning the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in late February, rating just off the pace in fifth along the backstretch before commencing his rally on the far turn
Kentucky Derby
Verifying – Kentucky Derby Context
Verifying exits a commendable second in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, missing by a neck to Tapit Trice, and his speed adds to the appeal
Kentucky Derby
Hit Show – Kentucky Derby Context
A stalker, Hit Show has raced within striking range in all three wins, including a sharp 5 1/2-length score in February’s Withers (G3) at Aqueduct two starts back, and he’ll seek to rebound after coming up a nose short as the favorite from just off the pace in the Wood Memorial (G2)
Kentucky Derby
Horses on the bubble for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
There remains a handful of horses on the outside looking in at trying to make the field of 20, including several prominent Southern California representatives.
Kentucky Derby
Ranking the final 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby preps
There were eight races in advance of the 2023 Kentucky Derby in which the winning horse received 100 qualifying points. It is usually from this group that we find the eventual Derby winner.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Mandarin Hero
Does Mandarin Hero have the breeding to shine racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby?
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Cyclone Mischief
Can Cyclone Mischief become the third son of Into Mischief to win the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Skinner
If Skinner's pedigree is any indication, racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1) may bring about a career-best performance from the bay colt.
Triple Crown
Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem April 24, 2023
Jason looks back at some of the weekend races and discusses his own handicapping biases in those races.
Features
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 24
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, April 24 at Parx Racing and Will Rogers Downs, including a pair of win bets capitalizing on the $10 Money Back Mondays promotion.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 24, 2023
Jason looks back at the weekend of racing action from around the country. He talks about the Ben Ali and Elkhorn from Keeneland as well as racing from Oaklawn and Woodbine.
Racing Podcast
Harness Weekly Update: 24% winners, 47% in the money
Winners dominate results with 47% H2W in-the-money average.
Harness
Keeneland carryovers: $135,128 Pick 6, $10,145 Super High 5
Pick 6 carryovers have been common at Keeneland this spring, and there’s another up for grabs on Sunday. The prize pool for the $1 wager stands at a hefty $135,128.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Sunday, April 23
The final Sunday of the Keeneland Spring meet features a nine-race card.
Wagering
Gulfstream Park: How to bet the $6,451 Super High 5 carryover
The Saturday card at Gulfstream Park gets underway with a $6,451 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Saturday, April 22
The Elkhorn (G2) and Ben Ali (G3) highlight Saturday's 10-race card at Keeneland!
Wagering
Betting Strategy: Using the Power Box at Keeneland April 22
When I have clear groupings for the horses I want to use, but I believe the finishing order will be a cross section of these multiple groupings, I use a Power Box.
Analysis
Aqueduct: How to bet the 2023 New York Stallion Stakes
Ten sophomore fillies bred in the Empire State will run 6 1/2 furlongs on the Aqueduct dirt in Sunday’s $200,000 New York Stallion S. (Park Avenue Division).
Wagering
The Jury: Bets and Fades for April 22
Older horses are in the spotlight across the country on Saturday with graded tests scheduled at Keeneland, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita.
Features
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Disarm
The cross of Gun Runner with Tapit mares has already produced several high-level racehorses, including 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender Disarm.
Triple Crown
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 21
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 21 at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, along with horses to single in the massive $859,585 Pick 6 carryover at Keeneland.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 21 [$859,585 Carryover]
Friday at Keeneland, we have $859,585 on the line in the Pick 6!
Wagering
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for Apr. 20, 2023
Jason talks about sharing bets with friends and the pros and cons of it.
Features
Forte – Kentucky Derby Context
The Kentucky Derby favorite, Forte will bring a five-race win streak to the Kentucky Derby.
Pedigree
Santa Anita: Exotics Plays for the 2023 Kona Gold Stakes
A compact field of six will vie 6 1/2 furlongs over the Santa Anita main course in Saturday’s $100,000 Kona Gold S.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Thursday, April 20
Yesterday, we were on a hot streak races 2 through 5, with our top choice winning in each — and the 50-cent Pick 4 paying $331.50.
Wagering
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 20
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, April 20 at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, along with a horse to single in the $37,483 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 20, 2023
Jason opens the show by catching up on some news and topics of the racing day, including racing from Keeneland. Jason also looks ahead to weekend racing at Oaklawn and Keeneland.
Racing Podcast
When three-year-olds face older horses, the class level matters
Traditional handicapping guidance explains that three-year-old Thoroughbreds are rarely ready to challenge older horses before autumn. But the equation can change at lower class levels.
Analysis
Betting With, and Against, Charge It in the Oaklawn Handicap
A strong field of seven will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Oaklawn Park dirt on Saturday in the $1 million Oaklawn H. (G2).
Wagering
Two Phil's – Kentucky Derby Context
A midpack stalker, Two Phil’s switched to Turfway Park’s synthetic Tapeta track for his final prep, rolling to a 5 1/4-length win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in late March
Kentucky Derby
Practical Move – Kentucky Derby Context
The top-ranked contender out west, Practical Move will enter the Kentucky Derby on a three-race win streak, recording convincing triumphs in the San Felipe (G2) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) before courageously holding for a nose score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Kentucky Derby
Kingsbarns – Kentucky Derby Context
Projected to show speed, Kingbarns rates as a pacesetting candidate after leading from gate to wire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Kentucky Derby
Rocket Can – Kentucky Derby Context
A projected stalker, Rocket Can will seek to establish up-close positioning in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Sun Thunder
By picking up Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points in a quartet of prep races, Sun Thunder earned his ticket to the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Verifying
There are many well-bred horses slated to start in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), but few—if any—can boast as blueblood a pedigree as Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Verifying.
Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: First Mission
The Road to the Kentucky Derby wrapped up with the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, in which the beautifully bred First Mission battled up the inside to score a tenacious victory.
Triple Crown
Catching My Eye: Keeneland racing Sunday, April 16
I’ve been enjoying this Keeneland meet: the fields, the performances, and the payouts have all been strong.
Analysis
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch April 20-24
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Keeneland selections and analysis for Wednesday, April 19
We're back for another five-day week of racing at Keeneland! Let's get to Wednesday's eight-race card.
Wagering
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 19
J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 19 at Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs, including a horse to play in Keeneland’s $60,501 Pick 6 carryover and $20,691 Super High 5 carryover.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 19, 2023
Today we welcome in Churchill Downs analyst Joe Kristufek to talk about his prep leading up to the Kentucky Derby and discuss many of the contenders for that race.
Racing Podcast
Racing Roundtable: Lexington Stakes and Grade 1 older stars
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson touch on the final Road to the Kentucky Derby prep and some Grade 1 performances from the older set in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 18
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, April 18 at Parx Racing and Turf Paradise, including a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.
Wagering
Pedigree notebook: Chez Pierre brings down the house for Mehmas, and Lure
The latest standout for Mehmas, Chez Pierre is out of a mare by Orpen, who has preserved the legacy of his fertility-challenged sire – two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile star Lure.
Pedigree
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 18, 2023
Jason welcomes back Emily Gullikson to the show to talk about a wide variety of topics. They talk about the current Hawthorne meet, the upcoming Woodbine meet, as well as a lot of handicapping talk.
Racing Podcast
Tall Tales of the Track: I Am Woman, Watch Me Win!
In the first years of the 19th century, Alicia Meynell rode in not one but two match races against a man on an English racecourse, demonstrating that same self-assurance and drive that many a woman, including Annie Oakley, would need in their male-dominated pursuits.
History
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 17
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, April 17 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including a cold exacta keying a 9-2 shot on top.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 17, 2023
Jason looks back at the weekend of racing from Keeneland, including the Lexington Stakes and the Jenny Wiley. He also talks about the Apple Blossom matchup between Clairiere and Secret Oath.
Racing Podcast
Harness Weekly Update: Cold $171 exacta
Huge cashing week for TwinSpires harness blog includes cold $171 exacta
Harness
Gulfstream Park: How to bet the $2,925 Super High 5 carryover
Do you think you can solve Sunday’s first race at Gulfstream Park? If you can select the top five finishers in the correct order, you’ll win a share of the $2,925 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Sunday, April 16
We've got a nine-race card Sunday at Keeneland, including the final Kentucky Oaks prep in Race 8!
Wagering
Keeneland: A single and a longshot for the $93,613 Pick 6 carryover
The action-packed second Saturday of the Keeneland spring meet boasts a $93,613 carryover in the $1 Pick 6. Planning to play along? We’ve identified a suggested single and a live longshot worth building tickets around.
Wagering
How to bet the 2023 Beaumont Stakes
A total of seven sophomores will travel about seven furlongs on the Keeneland dirt in Sunday’s $400,000 Beaumont S. (G2).
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Saturday, April 15
Ashley Anderson breaks down her picks for Keeneland's Saturday card, including the final Kentucky Derby prep race.
Wagering
Grand National Preview 2023: Gaillard Du Mesnil a leading chance
The huge field, the handicap conditions, the extreme distance of 4 1/4 miles, and the challenging fences mean the uncertainties are high.
International
The Jury: Bets and fades for April 14
The quorum of James Scully and Vance Hanson have assembled to provide their best plays of the weekend in this edition of the TwinSpires Jury.
Features
Handicapper's Debate: Count Fleet Sprint Handicap
Saturday's $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3) at Oaklawn Park is shaping up as one of the best races of the weekend.
Wagering
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 14
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 14 at Keeneland, including exacta and double wagers.
Wagering
Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 14
We’ve been fortunate to experience amazing weather the first four days of Keeneland, and now we get a test on Friday, with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.
Wagering
The impact of the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system
Four consistent horses that in previous years would not have made the Kentucky Derby field are set to make it this year under the new points system that rewards those which run more often in prep races.
Kentucky Derby
Betting Strategy: Chris Larmey, “Nobody wants to be a fish"
To succeed long term, a horseplayer needs to know how to bet in order to cash in. Chris Larmey has begun a new podcast “Bet With the Best” aimed at exactly that.
Education
Laurel Park: How to bet the 2023 Federico Tesio Stakes
A well-matched field of nine sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Laurel Park dirt oval in Saturday’s $125,000 Federico Tesio S.
Triple Crown
Tipsheet: 2023 Lexington Stakes
An intriguing and well-matched field of 11 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Keeneland main surface in Saturday’s $400,000 Lexington Stakes (G3).
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Report – Thrilling conclusion to major qualifiers
The Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) concluded the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, each race awarding points on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis to the top five finishers, and a 20-horse field has taken shape for Churchill Downs on May 6.
Triple Crown
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for Apr. 13, 2023
Jason follows up on a discussion from his podcast about the "all-button".
Analysis
Exotics Plays for the 2023 Maker's Mark Mile
A fantastic field of eight will travel one mile on the Keeneland lawn in Friday’s $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile S. (G1).
Wagering
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch April 13-17
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Lexington Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Lexington (G3) over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Triple Crown
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 13
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 13 at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, along with a horse to single in the $66,705 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 13, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing some racing news as well as sharing some thoughts on the "all button." He also discusses some of the Keeneland and Oaklawn Stakes coming up this weekend.
Racing Podcast
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 12, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing more retirements around the world of racing as well as the Wednesday Keeneland card. Then we welcome in jockey Tyler Conner to the show to talk about riding at Penn National, the travel of a Mid-Atlantic jockey, and much more!
Racing Podcast
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 12
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 12 at Keeneland, along with horses to play in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers at Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs.
Wagering
Top 10 Fastest Horse Breeds in the World
From the noble Arabian poised for battle to the esteemed equines who run in the Kentucky Derby, let's explore the 10 fastest horse breeds in the world.
Education
Swimming in the pools of Kentucky Derby betting enthusiasm
Betting handle reveals the enthusiasm for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Contested annually on the first Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby serves as the standard-bearer for the North America Thoroughbred racing industry.
Kentucky Derby
Should you bet or dismiss a horse off a bad race?
It happens all the time. A horse enters a race off a poor performance in its previous start, leaving bettors to wonder—will the horse rebound, or run badly again?
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Developments on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss developments on the final major weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Analysis