2016 Kentucky Derby Brisnet.com Speed Rating Report

Let’s take a look at the Brisnet.com (BRIS) Speed ratings earned by the 2016 Kentucky Derby runners in the final two preps. By a matter of comparison, the Speed figures for the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners are listed as well.

Horses are listed in alphabetical order except for the bottom three, who are outside the bubble and ranked 21-23^rd in points (Lani not included since he’s raced overseas):

Horse		Two Starts Previous		Last Derby Prep
Brody’s Cause		83		94
Creator		95		100
Danzing Candy		104		87
Destin		100		97
Exaggerator		101		102
Gun Runner		97		100
Majesto		97		93
Mo Tom		95		94
Mohaymen		102		87
Mor Spirit		102		94
My Man Sam		100		92
Nyquist		103		97
Oscar Nominated		87		91
Outwork		96		96
Shagaf		94		92
Suddenbreakingnews		93		97
Tom’s Ready		81		95
Trojan Nation		87		96
Whitmore		97		97
Fellowship		95		92
Adventist		91		94
Laoban		92		88

The last 12 Kentucky Derby winners:

Horse		Two Starts Previous		Last Derby Prep
American Pharoah		99		102
California Chrome		102		106
Orb		102		97
I’ll Have Another		102		98
Animal Kingdom		96		97
Super Saver		99		99
Mine That Bird		87		88
Big Brown		102		110
Street Sense		105		98
Barbaro		104		104
Giacomo		96		100
Smarty Jones		109		105
Funny Cide		103		111
War Emblem		105		109
Monarchos		108		108
Fusaichi Pegasus		103		110

Observations:

·         Only three contenders (Creator, Exaggerator and Gun Runner) posted a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the most recent start, compared to 10 horses in the 2015 field.

·         Six other horses (Danzing Candy, Destin, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, My Man Sam & Nyquist) reached the triple-digit threshold two starts back.

·         Little separation exists among this year’s Derby horses – the top seven recorded Speed ratings within five points of each other last time out.

·         Exaggerator’s numbers stand out – he’s the only horse to earn triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in the last two starts and has notched four consecutive century-topping numbers (103-101-101-102).

·         The 103 earned by Nyquist two starts previously came in a 7-furlong sprint; the Florida Derby number (97) is on par with the 96-97 registered in a pair of two-turn starts last year

·         A moderate decrease in the final prep isn’t a negative: four of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners, including two in the past four years, have posted a lower BRIS Speed rating in the final prep race than two starts back.

·         Leaving the improbable Mine That Bird out of the equation, 97 or better has been a minimum for Derby winners in the final two preps. That eliminates seven horses in the main body of the 2016 field (Brody’s Cause, Mo Tom, Oscar Nominated, Outwork, Shagaf, Tom’s Ready & Trojan Nation) and all three also-eligibles listed.

·         Tom’s Ready produced the largest increase between the penultimate and final prep (14-point). Brody’s Cause’s BRIS Speed ratings jumped 11 points and Creator rounds out the top three with a 5-point advancement.

·         Danzing Candy shows the biggest decline between the last two prep races (17 points). Mohaymen is a close second with a 15-point dip. My Man Sam (8-point) and Nyquist (6-point) come next.