2017 Belmont Stakes BRIS Speed Rating Report

After previewing BRIS Speed Ratings for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, let’s take a look at the numbers for final leg of the American Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1).

It’s too early to make any definitive judgements about the 2017 3-year-old crop – late bloomer and future 3-year-old champion Arrogate didn’t break his maiden until June 5 last year – but the Speed Ratings posted by the prospective Belmont Stakes runners are a bit underwhelming to say the least.

Meantime has the top last-race BRIS Speed Rating, a 105 for a runner-up finish in the Peter Pan (G2), and Preakness runner-up Classic Empire is the only other horse with a triple-digit figure last time out (103).

BRIS Speed Ratings 2017 Belmont Stakes prospects (not applicable for Japanese shipper Epicharis):

HORSE		RACE		BRIS SPEED
CLASSIC EMPIRE		Preakness		103
		Kentucky Derby		91
		Arkansas Derby		96
GORMLEY		Kentucky Derby		85
		Santa Anita Derby		99
		San Felipe		91
IRISH WAR CRY		Kentucky Derby		82
		Wood Memorial		102
		Fountain of Youth		76
J BOYS ECHO		Kentucky Derby		75
		Blue Grass		93
		Gotham		104
LOOKIN AT LEE		Preakness		97
		Kentucky Derby		97
		Arkansas Derby		94
MEANTIME		Peter Pan		105
		Maiden Race		92
		Maiden Race		87
MULTIPLIER		Preakness		97
		Illinois Derby		104
		Maiden Race		93
PATCH		Kentucky Derby		78
		Louisiana Derby		98
		Maiden Race		101
SENIOR INVESTMENT		Preakness		98
		Lexington		93
		Louisiana Derby		93
TAPWRIT		Kentucky Derby		89
		Blue Grass		87
		Tampa Bay Derby		101
TRUE TIMBER		Sir Barton		91
		Wood Memorial		90
		Gotham		89
TWISTED TOM		Federico Tesio		93
		Private Terms		91
		Allowance Race		89

Analysis

Not a fast group from the last three starts.

Lookin at Lee, who could be the second or third choice on the morning line following a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby and a fourth in the Preakness, has never registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating in 11 career attempts, posting a career-best 97 in the last two outings.

Seven of the 12 horses have registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating once in the last three starts. None have met the threshold twice.

BRIS Speed Ratings last 15 Belmont Stakes winners:

HORSE		RACE		BRIS SPEED
CREATOR (2016)		Kentucky Derby		84
		Arkansas Derby		100
		Rebel		95
AMERICAN PHAROAH		Preakness		100
		Kentucky Derby		100
		Arkansas Derby		102
TONALIST		Peter Pan		107
		Allowance Race		93
		Maiden Race		93
PALACE MALICE		Kentucky Derby		93
		Blue Grass		96
		Louisiana Derby		97
UNION RAGS		Kentucky Derby		100
		Florida Derby		102
		Fountain of Youth		103
RULER ON ICE		Federico Tesio		93
		Sunland Derby		93
		Allowance Race		93
DROSSELMEYER		Dwyer		94
		Louisiana Derby		96
		Risen Star		95
SUMMER BIRD		Kentucky Derby		96
		Arkansas Derby		98
		Maiden Race		92
DA’ TARA		Barbaro		99
		Derby Trial		96
		Allowance Race		91
RAGS TO RICHES		Kentucky Oaks		109
		Santa Anita Oaks		98
		Las Virgenes		98
JAZIL		Kentucky Derby		99
		Wood Memorial		101
		Fountain of Youth		94
AFLEET ALEX		Preakness		112
		Kentucky Derby		99
		Arkansas Derby		107
BIRDSTONE		Kentucky Derby		90
		Lane’s End		87
		Allowance Race		97
EMPIRE MAKER		Kentucky Derby		106
		Wood Memorial		111
		Florida Derby		106
SARAVA		Sir Barton		104
		Allowance Race		92
		Allowance Race		99

Analysis

Unlike the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, BRIS Speed Ratings aren’t as important for the Belmont Stakes. Perhaps it’s the 1 ½-mile distance, but horses with some pitiful recent Speed numbers have captured the final leg of the Triple Crown including Birdstone (2004) and Ruler on Ice (2010), who were painfully slow in the last three starts.

Six of the last 15 Belmont winners failed to register a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating in the previous three starts.

I won’t be too dissuaded by a Belmont horse with lower numbers if they have something else going for them.