2024 Belmont Stakes Picks: Predictions and Odds for All Horses

June 8th, 2024

The 156th Belmont Stakes will soon add the last jewel to the Triple Crown. While the Belmont Stakes is usually held at Belmont Park, this year it is to be held at Saratoga while Belmont Park is under construction. The field is packed with familiar talent, with many of the 2024 Belmont Stakes contenders coming fresh out of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, or the Preakness (G1) at Pimlico. However, that doesn't mean that new contenders are not a capable part of the field.

Find out the necessary predictions, odds, and analysis for all the horses that are a part of this historic race. 

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Predictions for what horse will win the Belmont Stakes with LIVE Belmont Stakes odds

#1 Seize the Grey - moderate chance to win

Pro: Pulled off surprise in Preakness (G1) and chances perhaps enhanced if track wet again.
Con: Record is less stellar when he has a lot of ground to make up. 

John Mucciolo Analysis: Preakness (G1) star is in career form entering the Belmont and will be sent from the rail for D. Wayne Lukas. The Arrogate colt bounced out of his win at Pimlico in good shape and has to be respected for sure with Jaime Torres retaining the mount. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Preakness winner flashed a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed figure when going gate to wire in the 1 3/16-mile event. With the Belmont shortened to 1 1/4 miles, the Arrogate gray has a shot. Jaime Torres will retain the mount and has won two straight with the colt. D. Wayne Lukas is a 16% winner with horses that won their last race. In his two prior starts at the Spa, Seize the Grey broke his maiden racing 6 1/2 furlongs over a sloppy track, then came home third over a muddy track in the 5 1/2-furlong Skidmore.

#2 Resilience - moderate chance to win

Pro: Sixth in Kentucky Derby after making early move; possibly capable of better.
Con: Seemingly a cut below based on Kentucky Derby (G1), Risen Star (G2) placings.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Bill Mott trainee made a big move at the top of the lane in the Derby before tiring late, and he has upset appeal following some smart morning drills as of late. The Wood Memorial (G2) victor owns the tactical speed to stay close and save ground in the early going, and the Into Mischief colt will be in the mix turning for home if he runs his best race under Junior Alvarado. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Into Mischief colt won two back in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2), then finished sixth by 7 3/4 lengths in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Bill Mott is a 22% winner in graded stakes, and Junior Alvarado will retain the mount. He recorded a sharp four-furlong workout June 2 at Saratoga, but Resilience’s lone previous start at Saratoga was a distant sixth in his career debut while racing a mile.

#3 Mystik Dan - good chance to win

Pro: Derby hero ran a good race in Preakness behind loose-on-the-lead rival.
Con: Just lasted at Churchill and others likely a bit more comfortable going 10 furlongs.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Kentucky Derby (G1) winner gave a nice account of himself when a good second in the Preakness (G1) and will be as fit as any runner in the field for Kenny McPeek. The son of Goldencents has a quick turn of foot and will be a danger approaching the turn for home beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: The surprise Kentucky Derby winner came home second to Seize the Grey by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness when sent off as the favorite and clocked a career-best 102 BRIS figure. The Goldencents colt will ship to New York for the first time, and he’ll keep regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr., a 21% winner with routes. Kenny McPeek is also a 21% winner with beaten favorites but an 11% winner overall in graded stakes.

#4 The Wine Steward - low chance to win

Pro: Consistency a huge plus and rarely gets beaten by much.
Con: Two of his three wins have been against NY-breds and hasn’t yet won beyond six furlongs.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Vino Rosso colt is a bit underrated coming into his first Classic race for Mike Maker. First or second in each of his six lifetime tries to date, the New York-bred is a stakes winner on the surface and is another who will be in the hunt at the head of the stretch with a clean voyage. Manny Franco will be in the stirrups. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: The Vino Rosso colt won his first three starts, then finished second by less than a length in each of his last three. The Mike Maker trainee has yet to win at a route distance, and he’s stretching out farther today. Manny Franco will pick up the mount and is winning at a 25% clip when paired with Maker over the last 60 days. This three-year-old may improve third start off the layoff but speed figures are light compared to other rivals. 

#5 Antiquarian - low chance to win

Pro: Took a step forward in winning Peter Pan (G3) and better sure to come.
Con: Like others, has some class questions to answer.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Late-developing sophomore finished an even sixth in the deep Louisiana Derby (G2) two back, which preceded a measured score in the Peter Pan S. (G2) at Aqueduct last time out. The first of three Todd Pletcher pupils in the field gives the impression of a colt who will thrive at the distance, and he wouldn’t be a surprise if he improves under John Velazquez. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: The Peter Pan (G3) winner is one of three for Todd Pletcher in the field. By Preservationist, the lightly raced colt will make his fifth career start and will keep regular rider John Velazquez in the saddle. His lone previous try near today’s distance resulted in a four-length sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Raced well in the mud when breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds and may get similar track conditions here.

#6 Dornoch - low chance to win

Pro: Pace player was taken out of his game right away in Derby; will take these as far as he can. 
Con: Seemingly better suited for shorter races than this.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Fountain of Youth (G2) victor didn’t have the best of trips when breaking from the rail in Louisville and gets a much better starting slot for this event. This Danny Gargan trainee will need improvement to upset this deep field, but he could grab a minor award with a lifetime best beneath regular pilot Luis Saez. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, the Good Magic three-year-old finished 10th of 20 in the Kentucky Derby and was last seen in the winner’s circle three starts back in the 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2), where he faced just four rivals. Danny Gargan is a 19% winner with shippers, and Luis Saez will retain the mount. Sharp four-furlong workout June 1 at Saratoga.

#7 Protective - low chance to win

Pro: Connections exude confidence in him by taking a shot, despite his maiden status. 
Con: Will need several of the more obvious players to have an off day.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Maiden finished third in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Peter Pan (G2) in his last two tries for Pletcher. The talented colt ran well on debut on this surface, and he’s not impossible in his initial try at 1 1/4 miles. Tyler Gaffalione riding adds to his appeal. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Another from Todd Pletcher’s barn, the Medaglia d’Oro colt is still a maiden after four starts but has achieved third-place finishes in the Wood Memorial and the Peter Pan. Late runner will pick up Tyler Gaffalione and may improve with the added distance.

#8 Honor Marie - good chance to win

Pro: Endured a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby and benefits from smaller field here.
Con: No one factor suggests this he will outrun Sierra Leone this time, for one.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Longshot contender lost his chance in the Derby soon after the start, although he did show interest when finishing a non-threatening eighth. This Whit Beckman trainee owns a robust turn of foot and has worked well as of late according to his connections. If the pace is contested early, which is very likely, then he will be a factor inside the final furlong. Florent Geroux inherits the mount. #9 Sierra Leone (9-5): Morning-line choice and top pick just missed in Louisville and looks to be the one to hold off in the stretch for Chad Brown. The standout son of Gun Runner is a pair of noses shy of being unbeaten from five career performances, and I expect him to enjoy the local surface in his first appearance at The Spa, as well. Flavien Prat will guide the stout late runner. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Deep closer had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby and came home eighth in the first leg of the Triple Crown. He rallied late to finish a length second to Catching Freedom two back in the Louisiana Derby, and he posted a triple-digit Late Pace rating four back in his most recent win, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November of 2023. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount and strikes at a 23% rate with routes. Whit Beckman will get his first Belmont starter here and has one win from 18 graded stakes starts.

#9 Sierra Leone - high chance to win

Pro: Narrowly denied in Kentucky Derby after eventful stretch run; looks the one to beat.
Con: Tendency to not maintain straight course a potential concern in a tight battle.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Wildcard in the group draws widest of all and comes in with a pair of dominant victories from as many starts for Pletcher. The son of Constitution made easy work of an allowance field at Churchill on Derby Day, but he has yet to be tested against a field of this quality at this stage of his development. Irad Ortiz Jr. stays in the silks and will have the Maryland-bred forwardly placed from the start. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: The $2.3 million yearling purchase is 3-for-5 for his career, with both losses coming by a nose, including in his most recent start, the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Chad Brown is a 25% winner with shippers and a 21% winner in graded stakes. Flavien Prat will pick up the mount and is 4-for-16 paired with Brown over the last two months.

#10 Mindframe -good chance to win     

Pro: Dominating winner in both starts, albeit in overnight company.
Con: Concedes crucial stakes experience against most of the best in the crop.

John Mucciolo Analysis: Wildcard in the group draws widest of all and comes in with a pair of dominant victories from as many starts for Pletcher. The son of Constitution made easy work of an allowance field at Churchill on Derby Day, but he has yet to be tested against a field of this quality at this stage of his development. Irad Ortiz Jr. stays in the silks and will have the Maryland-bred forwardly placed from the start. 

Ashley Anderson Analysis: Making just his third career start for Pletcher, the Constitution colt is the second choice on the morning line after winning by a combined 20 1/2 lengths in his first two starts. Owned by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables, Mindframe romped to a 13-length win on debut at Gulfstream Park on March 30, then won an allowance optional claimer by 7 1/2 lengths at Churchill on May 4. He’ll keep rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who last won the Belmont aboard the Pletcher-trained Mo Donegal.