2024 Brisnet Preakness Speed Rating Report and Run Style Analysis

May 14th, 2024

Following the defection of morning line favorite Muth, eight three-year-olds remain for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, Saturday’s 149th running of the $2 million Preakness (G1) at Pimlico. We will preview Brisnet Speed ratings and run styles for this year’s contestants.

Speed Ratings

Catching Freedom is the only entrant to register a triple-digit Speed figure in the last two starts, but Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan reached the threshold three starts back.

Thirteen of the last 15 Preakness winners registered a triple-digit Speed rating in previous starts.

Here are the two most recent Speed ratings, ranked by the top last-out number, for the 2024 Preakness field.

HorseMost Recent Speed Ratings
Muth ***SCRATCHED***
Tuscan Gold
Mystik Dan
Catching Freedom
Seize the Grey
Uncle Heavy
Just Steel

Catching Freedom overcame a troubled start to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, a deep prep race that produced recent Peter Pan (G2) winner Antiquarian, but he got shuffled back early in the Kentucky Derby and couldn’t make up enough ground from far off the pace, rallying well to be a clear fourth. His Speed ratings have progressed nicely in recent starts, and Catching Freedom is eligible to receive a better trip in upcoming starts.

Mystik Dan received a whopping 101 Speed rating for his eight-length score in the Southwest (G3) three back, but he couldn’t run back to it when checking in a non-threatening third in the Arkansas Derby next out. One could make the argument he regressed off a whopping career-best number, but Mystik Dan also experienced trouble on the first turn that may have impacted his performance. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt rebounded commendably in the Kentucky Derby, and Mystik Dan has the potential to keep moving forward.

Tuscan Gold earned lower numbers in his first two starts, but the maiden winner merits respect after generating a 98 Speed rating for a close third in the Louisiana Derby. Chad Brown has the Preakness twice in the last seven years with horses who missed the Kentucky Derby (Cloud Computing and Early Voting).

Imagination’s Speed ratings are on the upswing after generating a 97 for his neck second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and the speedy colt is trained by eight-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert.

The remaining four Preakness entrants appear up against it from a Speed rating perspective.

Run Styles

The Preakness did not attract an abundance of speed.

Early – Seize the Grey led all the way breaking his maiden last year and exits a sharp win where he displayed high early speed, chasing a hot pace (:22 and :44 3/5) in the Pat Day Mile (G2) before prevailing by 1 1/4 lengths. With Muth scratching, Seize the Grey has the chance to be inside speed.

Imagination does his best running on or close to the lead and will be hustling from his outside post with Frankie Dettori, probably first or second entering the first turn.

Early/PresserJust Steel showed surprising speed contesting the early lead in the Kentucky Derby and weakened to 17th. Look for new jockey Joel Rosario to employ different tactics, but Just Steel still figures to be within striking range with his speed.

Mystik Dan raced within five lengths of the last in the Kentucky Derby and has the versatility to race up close or toward midpack. And considering the lack of speed signed on, Brian Hernandez Jr. may try to save ground from a prominent position. 

Presser – A rallying maiden winner, Tuscan Gold raced closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby and could show more speed than expected following a 56-day freshening. But he’s also eligible to be stalking the action in sixth or seventh in a bunched field.

SustainedCatching Freedom packs a formidable late punch. 

Uncle Heavy, a fast-closing winner of the Withers (G3) two back, will look to make an impact in the final furlongs with new rider Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mugatu has displayed no positional speed in recent starts.

Good luck in the Preakness!