2024 Kentucky Derby: weather forecast, chance of rain for the day of the race

May 4th, 2024

Will it rain at the Kentucky Derby?

TwinSpires.com thinks possibly for two hours in the late afternoon on Saturday. 

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The National Weather Service

  • Tonight will see a chance of decreasing rain.
  • Saturday will see scattered showers, slight chance of thunderstorms with a high of 75-80 degrees.
  • Saturday night will see a dip to 62-65 degress and isolated showers.
  • Take a look at the live radar here.
National Weather Service

National Weather Service

If you look at Weather Bug, then the greatest risk is currently at 40% between 3 and 5:30pm ET. Which would be right before the big race. No risk until 1pm ET, which starts at a 30% chance of rain, so the morning should be pretty dry during your commute and the first half of the race card.

If you want to examine Weather.com then the overnight is pretty clear with a steady 23% average risk of rain, but only cloudy conditions expected with no precipitation. During the day at Churchill Downs, the morning should remain cloudy without rain until 1pm ET, where the rain may begin rolling in. From 2pm ET to 8pm ET we have a gradual increase from 32% to 46% of Scattered Thunderstorms between 6 and 7pm ET. Then the rain should diminish.