2026 Kentucky Derby Day spot plays

What else is there to say about Kentucky Derby Day? It's the most wagered on card in American racing, and this year's 152nd edition of the Derby at Churchill Downs is beyond fascinating. Can't wait to see who comes out on top.

Before that, and a little after, there are other horses of interest I'll be investing on in the win pool. Here they are.

Race 6: Knicks Go Overnight S., 1:53 p.m. ET

Grande was expected to coast as a 1-10 favorite in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream Park, but #10 Capital Idea (5-1) put a little scare into him during the final one or two furlongs. Overall, an excellent try for Capital Idea, whose form since being gelded and joining the Mott barn has been far more reliable than earlier in his career.

Entering the third race of his form cycle, a winner over this track, and seemingly possessing more positional speed than some of the other serious closers, Capital Idea rates a solid chance to run these down late.

Race 9: American Turf (G1), 4:06 p.m. ET

#6 Black Hornet (20-1) was in a really good striking position around the far turn of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), but then suddenly began drifting out and quickly lost contact with the leaders. A weird effort, with no obvious explanation.

I'll throw that race and out and concentrate instead on his two previous wins, both on grass, including the Black Gold S. at Fair Grounds. Both the runner-up and third-place finishers came back to win N1X allowances at Keeneland, so the form has worked out pretty well. Hard to pass up the possibility Black Hornet can rebound if the price is north of 12-1.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1), 6:57 p.m. ET

If there had been in-racing wagering on the Florida Derby (G1), how many would have confidently bet #6 Commandment (6-1) in the final quarter mile? I sure wouldn't have, and doubt I'm alone in that sentiment.

But Commandment did win the Florida Derby, though needing every last yard of that 1 1/8 miles. Thankfully, he will get a little more ground to work with on Saturday in seeking his fifth consecutive victory. 

Besides making his supporters sweat a bit in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby, the obvious takeaway is that this is a serious colt who does what it takes to win. True, the margins between him and the The Puma and Chief Wallabee are slim, but I like the fact he was battle-tested all winter against opposition that are win contenders themselves here. On paper, the Florida Derby was the deepest prep by far.

He could go off third choice, which is fine by me. He also has to work out a trip, but doesn't everyone? Commandment is my pick for the big one.

Race 13: Allowance, 8 p.m. ET

#11 Noble Affair (9-2) has been fast out of the gate in his two main track starts, thus I think this outside post can be of some benefit. Won a key maiden two back, beating Derby AE Corona de Oro, and just missed doubling up in an Oaklawn Park N1X allowance. Solid contender as Derby Day begins its wind down.