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TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/24 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Is handicapping Breeders' Cup more like Christmas or Hanukkah?
By this time tomorrow (i.e., Wednesday afternoon), we'll know which owners pre-entered their horses in what races, and preparation can begin in earnest for the Breeders' Cup World Championships November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, and the $120-million u ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
As does happen at times, our wagering philosophy worked for us and against us during the two nights of Breeders Crown elims and preps at Woodbine. Of our choices to win, recorded here and in our “Countdown” blog, we went for outside contenders b ...
Racing
BC Battle Tested
(Click on image to enlarge) For more data like this, be sure to check out my 2012 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide . In addition to all kinds of unique stats and insightful articles, the Guide also contains past performances — wi ...
Racing
The Breeders Crown Overture
Freshmen Frolic We begin with the first of a pair of two-year-old colt pace elims on the Friday program. There have rarely been, in any divisions, as worthy a 1-5 morning-line shot than is Captaintreacherous. Perhaps his sire, Somebeachsomewh ...
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TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 10/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Ed DeRosa and Derek Simon discuss all the recent BC developments ( including the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package at Brisnet.com), as well as Frankel's final race . In the U. of Bet segment, Dave Schwartz of thehorsehandic ...
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Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Since the bulk of the stakes horses from all 12 divisions were either thinking about or traveling to Canada to ready for the Breeders Crown elims, we were treading water with a few plays around the country. From the slim list we picked up a ...
Racing
Keeneloliquy
Keeneland has put together an absolutely fantastic card for its second Saturday of the meet. There's usually a hangover following most track's big weekends, but that's definitely not the case with this card, a blockbuster of full, competitive fields ...
Racing
Woodbine's pre World Championships worldwide affair
To access those free handicapping materials, click here to visit Woodbine's Pattison Canadian International day microsite (PPs & selections are in the middle of page). To help players make the most of those two guaranteed Pick 4 pools, ...
Racing
Cream Rises in Final BC Preps
(Click on image to enlarge) COMMENTS: While I love the -2 LSR that Shanghai Bobby recorded in easily winning the Grade I Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park Saturday, I don’t like the fact that the pace was so slow (-1 early spee ...
Racing
Poised For The Big Noise
It’s that weekend between early autumn stakes and the explosive eliminations for the Breeders Crown. The shipping has begun, the top members of all divisions are headed across the border into Canada, where they will take up residence at Woodbine Race ...
Racing
A Classic problem
Whoever is running Wise Dan's Twitter account is banging the drum loudly for respecting the horse's connections for "doing right by the horse" in deciding to send the Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf to the Breeders' Cup Mile instead of the Cla ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The last week of The Red Mile’s Grand Circuit meet began on Thursday, Oct. 4, but we were concentrating on the last three days in Kentucky, when the bulk of the Breeders Crown-eligibles prepped for the main event this month in high-class events. ...
Racing
The last big weekend
Three of the Breeders' Cup's biggest favorites could solidify that status with wins this weekend: Amazombie in the Sprint, Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, and Wise Dan in the Mile. Twelve weeks ago, I presented a list of who I saw ...
Racing
Systematic Profits
(Click on image to enlarge) 1) Consider only the horse(s) with the highest Brisnet Power Rating. NOTE: This instantly puts one on a “live” horse based on traditional handicapping criteria — speed, pace, class, etc. ...
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Stakes Weekend Winds Up Red Mile Meet
The Grand Circuit rolls through the first weekend of October with gusto and ends at The Red Mile for another autumn with the Kentucky Futurity on Sunday, Oct. 7. We will be covering that event, and the filly version, at the Breeders Crown Countdown ...
Racing
Portland Meadows carryover/0% takeout Wednesday
Those who follow me on Twitter or catch my weekly segment on "At The Races" w/ Steve Byk (brought to you by TwinSpires.com, where players win) know that I'm not one to shy away from tracks off the beaten path. Sure, I love the social aspect of pl ...
Racing
Historically insignificant
Back in 2009 I balked at the idea of a shared Horse of the Year award between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but given the historical insignificance of the so-called Horse of the Year campaigns in 2008, 2010, 2011, and likely 2012 I'm sort of thinkin ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The Red Mile’s Grand Circuit meet is the focus of the sport for the next two weeks. The weekend was filled with Bluegrass stakes for two- and three-year-olds of both gaits. Our campaign began on Friday, where we tried to beat favorites that w ...
Racing
Time to shine, the TCI weekend preview
If San Pablo wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup then Joel Cunningham of PM Advertising will shine my shoes on next week's preview. I'll stop short of calling San Pablo the most likely winner of the East Coast's most prestigious race for ol ...
Racing
Thinking Small
(Click on image to enlarge) Somewhat surprisingly, the morning-line odds criterion produced better numbers (40 percent winners, 24.7 percent ROI in August and September) than the post-time odds criterion did (38.0 percent ...
Racing
Using herd dynamics in handicapping
Two decades ago, when I was studying wild Mustangs in the Bighorn Mountains , I had no idea I’d someday use what I learned about equine communication and herd dynamics to write a handicapping blog. But here I am after my theories on herd dyn ...
Racing
Autumn Almanac
This week the Grand Circuit arrives as the leaves turn orange and the grass stays blue, so to speak, in Lexington, Kentucky. The other color involved is red—The Red Mile. Thanks to Nick Salvi, who is representing the two-week GC stint, we have a lot ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/26 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Ed DeRosa and Derek Simon discuss the importance — or lack thereof — of the morning line, as well as takeout rates and a bunch of other stuff. Derek also relates a key component of the Sartin Methodology to his latest column for TwinSpires, "Thin ...
Racing
Include Me Out left out
In a year of "wide open" Eclipse Award divisions, one filly routinely gets left out of division leader discussions, and that's Include Me Out, whose pairs of Grade 1 and Grade 2 wins easily stands tallest among her peers in the older female division. ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Wednesday, Sept. 19 and Thursday, Sept. 20 at Delaware, Ohio, resulted in a parade of public choices. That, as our readers know, is not the kind of atmosphere where we thrive. On Sept. 19, Jugette day, the first or second choices in 17 races ...
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Weekend Value
(Click on image to enlarge) Many will view this event as a virtual match race between the millionaires in the field, Turbulent Descent and Musical Romance… I’m not so sure. (Click on image to enlarge) ...
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TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast: The Thomas Herding Technique
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Little Brown Jug Special Edition
It’s another year to celebrate America’s Great Pace, the Little Brown Jug. It means a week of local Ohio stakes mixed with Grand Circuitry, so to speak, and starring some of the season’s top start in every division. It all takes place in Delawar ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
This week is odd so we will treat it differently. Firstly, we will review our weekend performances and send you to the Breeders Crown Countdown for storied reviews of major events (the Hambletonian archive area is devoted to the “countdown” st ...
Racing
How to Spot Losing Favorites
What this table shows is the maximum success (win) rate horses at the specified odds can achieve in order to wipe out both the takeout and breakage (based on a 122 percent pool). Anything below the listed percentage means that a dutch of ...
Racing
A Hot Hiatus Before Heading For Ohio
This week the Grand Circuit pauses for a well-deserved hiatus, catching its breath before it rolls into Delaware, Ohio, testing all eight divisions in one form or another on the speedy half-mile track for a week ending with the Jugette and Little Bro ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/12 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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East Coast bias
It's not that I think there is an East Coast bias, it's that when the only full-time Turf writers west of the Mississippi work for Daily Racing Form , the scale of information is definitely going to tip in the directions of the East Coast and Midwes ...
Racing
Fun with names
I think someone should name a horse Madeinnewyorkcity so that every time his/her name is said during the post parade, race, etc., the crowd can yell out, "NEW YORK CITY?!! Get a rope!" Announcers could have all sorts of fun with it, too. "Madei ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
A lot of the season’s top horses, trotters and pacers, from almost every division, played a role in the stakes-filled weekend. We couldn’t nail but a single winner, suffering our greatest heartbreak in the Sept. 8 Champlain at Mohawk when our 10 ...
Racing
The Fall of Champions
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Stakes Have Stars Spread Out For Action
National stars spread out this weekend to address some state-bred purses and more Grand Circuit events before all eyes focus on the herd’s arrival at Delaware, Ohio for Little Brown Jug week. Let’s look at the swarm of events that may warrant som ...
Racing
Stars? We don't need no stinkin' stars
Exhibit "A" is this year's Travers Stakes, a Grade 1 race in which the only Grade 1-winning entrant (Liaison) was on a seven-race losing streak. As I said in a previous blog post , this field was more like a bunch of also rans playing out the loser' ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/05 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
In between lamenting the fact that they are not qualified to be sports mascots, host Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com discuss the Paynter situation, the crisis in Canada and a host of other things. In the U. of Bet segment, Derek talks ab ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
A lot of the season’s top horses, trotters and pacers, from almost every division, played a role in the stakes-filled weekend. Keep up with race stories and pre-race analysis’s at our exclusvie Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the Hambl ...
Racing
A more telling weekend
The Pacific Classic had a bigger say on this year's three-year-old male division than did the Travers Stakes. Theoretically either Alpha or Golden Ticket could sneak into the Eclipse Award discussion by pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Classic foll ...
Racing
The Science of Betting
Originally, I’d planned on discussing a variety of racetrack issues in this week’s column — Dullahan’s surprise (at least to me) victory in the Pacific Classic, hopes that Frankel may travel to Paris, etc. But some comments on a coupl ...
Racing
‘Captain’ My Captain; Big Finals Highlight Giant Harness Weekend--Update on Cane Pace
There is a herd of progeny from Somebeachsomewhere on the tracks this season. The incredible beast that paced a hole in a lot of winds and retired to stud after a monstrous sophomore season, winning $2.4 million and taking a mark of 1:46.4, presents ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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TwinSpires.com bettor plays name game to scoop Pick 6 at Del Mar
A name he liked coupled with a jockey he recognized led Mr. Hariri to scoop Thursday’s Pick 6 at Del Mar for gross winnings of $495,060.80 on a $146 play. Playing through TwinSpires.com , the West Coast resident took a stab at Thursday’s $89,785 Pi ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
If you are one of “the crowd” then you cashed a few tickets this weekend, though most of the returns were pale and paltry. You may have, however, zeroed in on one of our choices, Prestidigitator, from our Breeders Crown Countdown blog, and ...
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Speedy Weekend Expected, Updated
Harness drivers will have their “pedal to the metal” this weekend, no doubt, as they gun for big purses and prestige over profit. TwinSpires carries the DuQuoin State Fair from Illinois and even with reduced status and purses, there is plenty the ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Some weeks don’t look as promising as others for a betting bankroll and those turn out to be terrific times, while others look good enough to eat and those wind up not being able to be digested fully. So it is that the three-day-full-of-action weeken ...
Racing
International Festival of Racing-Arlington Million day
It's a great 12-race card on Million day with two Pick 4s, including a $200,000 guaranteed late Pick 4 on the last five race, and an all-stakes $100,000 guaranteed Pick 5. My strategy will be to get Jakkalberry home in the St. Leger and eithe ...
Racing
Analyzing Arlington
(Click on image to enlarge) Let’s take a look at each of the top contenders: (Click on image to enlarge) The first thing that strikes me about Wild Command is that he’s a frontrunner with a closer’s pace ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/15 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Host Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com discuss Dr. Kendall Hansen’s assertion that Hansen (the horse, not the good doctor) was “unethically targeted” in the West Virginia Derby. They also analyze Wise Dan’s Horse of the Year chances and Ed giv ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes for Nov 8, 2012
In the way we offered a win wager on the Confederation Cup at Flamboro Downs, Aug. 12, you should have had Pet Rock. We mentioned that if the colt would be worth a price it would be in the elim heat, not the final. As it turns out we were on the mone ...
Racing
Winning with Style
(Click on image to enlarge) Personally, I think that’s a load of malarkey — although Hansen was very headstrong (he often is), the fractions of the West Virginia Derby were far from taxing. Still, Hansen’s blue-tail beatdown does highlight ...
Racing
The Heat Is On In Confederation Cup; State-Breds Battle Aplenty
With the Hambletonian in the history books, the action turns back to soph-colt pacers and heads north to Hambletonian Trail blog that covered months of preps for two divisions leading to the August classics has its final entry now listed. The H ...
Racing
Test of the Champion and the Test
Dreaming of Julia wowed Saratoga Race Course observers on Monday with a 10 1/2-length victory on debut, prompting thoughts not only of what she might accomplish as a two-year-old but also beyond. One tweet proclaimed, "I found my [Kentucky] Oaks fill ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/08 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Was Hansen cooked in a speed duel in the West Virginia Derby? Did Hero of Order engage in a Kamizakee mission of destruction? Host Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com discuss it, as well as speed duels in general. In the U. of Bet segment, Dere ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Thanks to the Hambletonian Trail blog. The two features on Friday night started us off with strange twist concerning the next day’s trotting classic. In the Townsend-Ackerman, which consisted of trotting colts that did not make it into the ...
Racing
Greek peaked or still climbing?
It's rare that a race outside the Breeders' Cup can define a horse as the best in the country, but that mantle is on the line for Ron The Greek in the Whitney Handicap on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course. Ron The Greek is the onl ...
Racing
At the races and on stage with The Hold Steady's Craig Finn
When Craig Finn talks about his song “Chips Ahoy!”, the lead singer of The Hold Steady sounds like The Most Interesting Man in the World , but he’s talking gambling instead of alcohol.
“I'm not much a gambler,” Finn said. “But if you're going ...
Racing
The Skinny on Overweights
When I used to go to the races as a kid, I followed the same pattern. I’d get a program to supplement my tattered and marked-up edition of the Daily Racing Form , find a comfortable table and chair in the gazebo and accept the offer of an ice-cold P ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 07/18 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com and Derek Simon share their thoughts on the opening of Del Mar and Saratoga. Derek also explains why Saratoga is called the "Graveyard of Favorites" and discusses the nuances of making a fair odds line.
TwinSpires ...
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