An Erie Feeling: Doug Salvatore's 2016 Kentucky Derby Profiles Part 1

Following a blogging hiatus to get married and represent some jockeys at Presque Isle Downs, Doug Salvatore is returning to the TwinSpires.com ranks to dish on this year’s Kentucky Derby. Below is part one of a three-part series examining each of the likely Kentucky Derby entrants. For more race replays and videos of workouts, visit the TwinSpires.com Youtube channel.

For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby contenders, CLICK HERE.

Gun Runner

BRIS (100, 97, 92)  TimeformUS (111, 108, 106) Beyer (91, 90, 82)  Thoro-Graph (5, 5.5, 6.5)

This son of Candy Ride has progressing speed figures and is out of a Grade 2 Stakes-winning dam who is a half sibling to the late-maturing Breeders' Cup Classic winner Saint Liam.

Gun Runner was a little green in the Louisiana Derby last time out, but a perfect trip winner in a race where the post time favorite Mo Tom had a trip from hell. Two starts back, Gun Runner dealt with a little early jostling while in-range of a fast pace in the Risen Star Stakes. He left me with the impression that he was a deserving winner that day. Mo Tom did have major traffic trouble in defeat, but he also benefited from an ideal pace setup and would've been a dream trip winner had he found his way through cleanly.

This will be Gun Runner's 3rd start off the layoff. He finished his 2-year-old season with a deceptively good fourth place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club, in a race run over a sloppy track. He and 2nd place finisher Mor Spirit were the only two pace survivors that day, the rest of the front-end collapsed. Mor Spirit returned to win his next two starts, including the Grade 1 Los Al Futurity.

Nyquist

BRIS (97, 103, 97) TimeformUS (114, 113, 102)  Beyer (94, 101, 89)  Thoro-Graph (3, 2.75, 2.75)

Nyquist is an undefeated champion having won all seven career starts. His Breeders' Cup Juvenile win was a tremendous performance. He overcame multiple bumps in the run into the first turn. He was caught 6-wide through the first turn and 4-wide through the second turn and still managed to gut out a win in our nations most important Juvenile event. I was tremendously impressed with that performance, but I haven't exactly been wowed by his two starts this year, even though he got the job done both times.

Nyquist had a perfect trip while winning the Florida Derby, last time out. The only horse who put even moderate early pressure on him was an 0-for-9 Ohio Bred Maiden named Sawyers Mickey. His only serious rival last time out was Mohaymen, and that one raced multiple paths wider around both turns while having the daunting task of making first-run at the more naturally talented horse. Nyquist defeated eventual Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator in the 7-furlong San Vincente two starts back, but he once again controlled a cozy pace on the front end.

This is a son of the brilliant 2-year-old champ Uncle Mo. Nyquist's 2nd Dam Seeking Regina was also an early developing type, winning a Grade 2 stake race in August of her 2-year-old season, before her racing career fizzled out. Ideally, in a Kentucky Derby prospect, we prefer a pedigree that suggests stamina and late-maturity. With Nyquist, you have one that suggests speed and early-development. Nyquist also has a bad habit of drifting through the lane in the stretch. He bore out through the lane in both starts this season. This is the most talented and accomplished horse in the race, but he's a very poor projection for a 10-furlong distance under a 126lbs impost in a race where he's almost certain to face more early pressure than he's ever faced before.