Attractive value in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager

November 23rd, 2020

Analyzing the opportunities in Pool 1 of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future & Sire Wagers

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool 1 will kick off on Thursday, November 26 at 12 p.m. (ET), and run through Sunday, November 29 at 6 p.m. (ET). The wager offers 24 betting options -- 22 individual entries as well as one for “All 3-Year-Old Fillies” and a final one for “All Other 3-Year-Old Males." And since it is never too early to talk Derby, I found a pair of promising juveniles that look to be worth an investment.

Scully: Thoughts on KDFW Pool 1, Sire Future Wager

#20 Speaker’s Corner (50-1) is an intriguing youngster who will improve with distance and seasoning for Bill Mott. The Godolphin homebred went postward at 3-5 odds in his debut at Saratoga, and while he only registered a third-place performance, the fact that a Mott pupil was so heavily backed at first asking is reason for optimism by itself.

The son of Street Sense stretched out to 7 furlongs in his second career assignment and made a fine late run to get up late at Belmont Park. #1 Caddo River (30-1), who was clear before finishing second in that maiden heat, came right back to graduate by 9 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs on November 15.

Speaker’s Corner is bred to be a classic performer who will thrive with distance. His dam, the unraced Tyburn Brook, is a half-sister to Long River, who was a Grade 1 winner going 1 3/16 miles. His second dam is two-time Grade 1 heroine Round Pond, who dominated the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) beneath the Twin Spires.

I was also impressed by the first-out victory by #18 Scarred (30-1). By top sire Into Mischief, the Steve Asmussen pupil showed gate speed and a strong closing kick when going seven-eighths in his initial offering. The $340,000 yearling purchase gave every impression of a push-button horse who will be fine with added distance as he develops.

Scarred has an interesting pedigree, with plenty of class running through his dam’s side. While he is no cinch to stay a classic distance at a top level, I see him as a horse with a world of potential and a very high ceiling. He was just scratching the surface in his debut run.