Australia & New Zealand Preview for November 7, 2026
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The major spring carnivals are nearing their conclusion in Australia, with most features finishing this weekend. Headlining is the final day of the four-day Flemington Cup carnival, which has now been successfully rebranded as Champions Day, following in the path set by the same promotion in England in mid-October. We also have Sydney’s riches continuing with the $1.4 million Five Diamonds for five-year-olds.
Meanwhile, one of New Zealand's most iconic meets begins: the three-day New Zealand Cup week in Christchurch, this weekend featuring the first Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas.
Here are some suggestions for how to play the major Antipodean races this weekend.
Riccarton, NZ, Race 10, 10:39 p.m. Saturday ET
NZ 1000 Guineas (G1), 1,600 meters (about 1 mile), $339,000, three-year-old fillies
The big question here is whether you want to support or oppose the favorite #1 Asturia (4-1). She was highly impressive in the Soliloquy (G2) at Ellerslie on Oct. 17, and one of her major opponents from that day, runner-up Ligura, hasn’t made the trip south for this race.
She is without doubt the leading chance, but her overall form isn’t as impressive as last year’s odds-on winner Well Written. It’s possible she’ll start at much lower odds than the morning line suggests – she’s at even money in local advance markets – and if she starts at her current local price, I’d be a little reluctant to support her. There’s also a danger she'll encounter some traffic issues from gate three.
There’s no way I’m not having Asturia on top of some exotics, but I am going to support #9 Miss Magnetica (9-1) to beat her. She rattled home for fourth in the Soliloquy and will appreciate both the extra furlong and the roomy track at Riccarton. If anything has a chance of beating Asturia, I’d say it’s her.
Others to consider for exotics are Soliloquy third #7 Fiamma (12-1), her stablemate #2 Dashing Dixie (10-1), War Decree (G3) second and third #3 Platinum La Danse (13-2) and #5 So Fear (15-2), Hawke’s Bay Guineas (G2) fourth #12 Angels Halo (21-1), and the favorite’s stable companion #6 Sweetest Thing (15-1).
Flemington, Race 6, 11:50 p.m. Friday ET
Champions Sprint (G1), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), $2.11 million, three-year-olds and up
- $10 win/$30 show: #7 Joliestar ($40)
- $2 trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 1,3,4,7,9,11 ($20)
- $1 trifecta: 7 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,9,11 ($10)
Unsurprisingly, the market is dominated by Everest (G1) winner #6 Tempted (1-2). After all, she did just end Ka Ying Rising’s 21-race winning streak. She has been very impressive all season, and she deserves to be the favorite for this. In addition, her trainer Ciaron Maher has just saddled five of the first six in Tuesday’s $7 million Melbourne Cup, so you can’t say the stable isn't in form.
There are a couple of potential reasons to oppose her. Firstly, she’s never raced down the Flemington straight six-furlong course. Generally, the top horses handle it, but you never know until it happens. Secondly, there is an extent to which the Everest was her grand final. She may not be at her peak at her fourth start this campaign.
On the other hand, #7 Joliestar (4-1) has had only two runs this campaign. She got within half a length of Tempted when third in the Everest, and she has a first and a third in her previous starts down the Flemington straight six. She also handled a straight sprint course when the closest of thirds at Royal Ascot in the Diamond Jubilee (G1).
There is every chance Tempted will be too good, but I’m willing to give Joliestar a chance at the odds.
Others that can fill the lower exotic rungs include last year’s winner #1 Giga Kick (36-1), #3 Headwall (7-1), #4 Caballus (18-1), #9 Skybird (29-1), and #11 Point Barrow (29-1).
Flemington, Race 7, 12:30 a.m. Saturday ET
Champions Mile (G1), 1,600 meters (about 1 mile), $2.11 million, three-year-olds and up
- $3 trifecta: 8 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($36)
- 50c superfecta: 8 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($18)
Though I’m happy to take on Tempted, I’m not at all keen to take on #8 Autumn Glow (1-9) in this race. It is her first race anticlockwise, but she’s won 14 of her 15 starts, her only defeat coming the one time she was asked to race beyond a mile.
As Sheza Alibi's defeat in last week’s Golden Eagle due to traffic problems shows, hot favorites can be beaten. But Autumn Glow has the added benefit of being able to jump and put herself in positions which take luck out of the equation. She’s also beaten most of these horses in this race at some time, so it’s extremely difficult to see her beaten.
The only question is whether you want to take the likely microscopic win odds. If you have a lot to spend, it may be the equivalent of buying money, but for those who don’t, exotics are probably the way to go.
The best chances of filling the immediate placings behind Autumn Glow are #2 Lindermann (12-1) and #1 Tom Kitten (14-1), first and second in the Craven (G2) at Randwick Oct. 24, and #3 Buckaroo (16-1), second in the Crystal Mile (G2) at Flemington the same day. I’d also add #4 Sepals (14-1) and #6 Another Wil (88-1) for lower rungs.
Rosehill, Race 8, 12:50 a.m. Saturday ET
Five Diamonds (G3), 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), $1.4 million, five-year-olds
- $10 win/$30 show: #9 Plymouth ($40)
- $1 trifecta: 1,9 with 1,8,9 with 1,2,8,9,10,11 ($16)
Another of the rich new races introduced in Sydney in the last decade, this is a rare exclusive race for five-year-olds. It hasn’t caught on quite like the Golden Eagle for four-year-olds, hence a field with less depth, though the fact that it’s worth 20 percent of the value of that race has a lot to do with that.
The most important lead-up was the Five Diamonds Prelude Oct. 24, won by #8 Declichy Boulevard (3-1) from #1 Linebacker (4-1) and #11 Welcometotheshow (9-1). Declichy Boulevard won well enough, but that was over 1 1/2 furlongs less than this race, and there was a 12-pound difference at the weights, whereas it’s only 7 pounds here. As far as the distance goes, Declichy Boulevard has run once at 1 1/4 miles, for a Group One third placing, whereas Linebacker hasn’t run past a mile, though on pedigree you’d think Linebacker is more likely to enjoy 1 1/8 miles.
Over from New Zealand is #2 Tuxedo (15-1). He has been running very well at home, finishing second in consecutive Group One races over a mile and 1 1/4 miles. New Zealand Group One races are closer to Group Two or Group Three level in Sydney, but this field is more Group Two quality. It’s his first race in Australia, so it’s hard to know exactly how the form lines up, but he has to be included.
Two others that need to be included are #9 Plymouth (10-1) and #10 Zambardo (9-1). Plymouth has been racing in good company, running fourth at a light weight in the Epsom (G1) and then the same position at weight-for-age behind Lindermann and Tom Kitten in the Craven Plate (G2) over this trip.
Zambardo finished second 12 months ago in the Champion Stakes (G1) at Flemington behind Via Sistina, and was a decent fourth to Pride of Jenni in the Feehan (G2) last start. He doesn’t win as often as you’d like, but this is not Champion Stakes level.
It’s an interesting race to try to handicap, but I’m going with Plymouth at what could be reasonable odds.
Flemington, Race 8, 1:10 a.m. Saturday ET
Champions Stakes (G1), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), $2.11 million, three-year-olds and up
- $10 win/$30 show: #5 Birdman ($40)
- $2 trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5,10 with 1,2,3,5,10,11 ($32)
#1 Cosmic Crusader (6-5) has been the revelation of the Melbourne spring. His West Australian form was very good, and many expected him to run well in Victoria, but winning the Cox Plate (G1) on Oct. 24, as he did last start, is several levels up.
On that form, he’s the one to beat here. The only real doubt is that he’s had a much longer campaign than his opponents – seven starts since late July – so it’s possible he’s past his peak. But he handled the one-week break between the 1 1/2-mile Caulfield Cup (G1) and the Cox Plate, so he can easily manage it here again, and he loves Flemington.
Many of the horses behind him in the Cox Plate are back for another go: #5 Birdman (2-1), #10 Aeliana (9-2), and #3 Sir Delius (5-1) were second, third, and sixth two weeks back, and the margins weren’t large. Any of them could win, especially if Cosmic Crusader is below his best.
It’s hard to get excited about the rest, though #2 Light Infantry Man (27-1) and #11 Treasurethemoment (27-1) are capable on their day and could occupy lower exotic rungs.
Given that he’s already beaten Cosmic Crusader once this prep, I’m going to take a chance on Birdman turning around the three-quarter-length margin from the Cox Plate.
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