Australia Preview for Aug. 15

Spring racing in Melbourne starts to heat up this weekend. Three graded stakes races and one ungraded stakes highlight the card at Caulfield, with several top prospects beginning their campaigns.

We’ll look at a couple of the graded races for betting options here.

Caulfield, Race 6, 1:25 a.m. Saturday ET

Quezette (G3), 1,100 meters (about 5 1/2 furlongs), three-year-old fillies.

• $10 win/$30 show: #1 Lara Antipova ($40)
• $2 trifecta: 5 with 1, 10 with 1, 4, 8, 10 ($12).
• $1 trifecta: 1 with 5, 10 with 4, 5, 8, 10 ($6).

New Zealand form often doesn’t work out in Australia, especially for young horses over sprint distances. #1 Lara Antipova (7-2), however, was rated as one of the best two-year-olds seen in New Zealand for some time last season.

The Australian-bred Lara Antipova was not only unbeaten in four starts, but she was also pretty much untested. Her smallest margin of victory came in her final juvenile start, the Sistema Stakes (G1), and that was by 1 3/4 lengths and could have been more. She won a jumpout from another talented type in Buggsy at Cranbourne on Aug. 3, so she should be fit. Her biggest issue might be having to concede up to seven pounds to her opponents, but if she stays around her morning-line odds she’s worth a go.

The favorite is #5 Natural Fling (2-1), an exciting filly by boom young sire Home Affairs. She won easily on this course at her debut and then found only the well-regarded colt The Next Episode too good in the Magic Millions National 2YO Classic in Queensland at her only other start. She won a trial at Flemington on Aug. 3 and should be worth following.

Of the others, #10 Riverina Lulu (9-1) won very well on debut and has since won a trial, while Sydney visitor #8 Scintillation (16-1) is fit after winning at Randwick July 25. Don’t ignore #4 Ghana’s Akan (23-1) either; she was good enough to run fifth in the Blue Diamond (G1) last summer and should improve on her first-up fourth.

Caulfield, Race 7, 2:00 a.m. Saturday ET

PB Lawrence (G2), 1,400 meters (about 7 furlongs), three-year-olds and older.

• $10 win/$30 show: #1 Private Eye ($40)
• $2 trifecta: 7 with 1, 2 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 12 ($16).
• $1 trifecta: 1 with 2, 7 with 2, 4, 6, 7, 12 ($8).

A good field of horses, many with Group 1 form, gathers here. Many of them are resuming, and the big question, as it always is at this time of year, is how forward these runners are.

#1 Private Eye (17-2) doesn’t seem to realize he’s a nine-year-old. The $8.5 million earner won this last year first-up, and showed he was still capable at the best level when finishing fifth in the Stradbroke (G1) in Queensland on June 13, conceding 5kg to the winner. He trialed well at Rosehill on Aug. 7 and should be right in this.

#2 Evaporate (13-2) has run well at Group 1 level without quite winning one. At this level, he’s highly competitive, and a recent trial win at Flemington shows he’s fit. He does, however, often need one run before he’s ready to win. He should be included in exotics.

But the one they all probably have to beat is the former West Australian #7 Cosmic Crusader (6-5). A very good horse in his home state, he handled the transition to Melbourne with an easy victory on this track on July 26. He has a fitness edge, and looks good enough to win some good races this spring. He’s got a nice barrier and will be tough to roll.

#4 Desert Lightning (12-1) and #6 Feroce (3-1) are both Group 1 winners who should run well, while #12 Coeur Volante (14-1) is more seasoned than most here and loves this trip.

With Cosmic Crusader a little shorter in the market than I’d like him to be, I’m going to focus on Private Eye, who might well start at longer odds than he should.

BONUS PLAY – NEW ZEALAND

Ruakaka, Race 6, 11:42 p.m. Friday ET: Northland Breeders’ Stakes (G3), 1,200m (about 6 furlongs), 3-year-olds

• $10 exacta, #7 Shalabiya (11-1) with #6 She’s No Saint (17-2): Don’t expect the morning-line prices to prove accurate here: Shalabiya won her debut so impressively on Aug. 1 on this track that she’s currently favorite in New Zealand for the 1,000 Guineas (G1), while She’s No Saint is also well in the market for that Classic after she was almost as impressive in the prelude to this race the same day.