Australia Preview for October 10, 2026

The biggest race days of the Australian spring are upon us. It’s only a week until the Everest, the King Charles III, and the Caulfield Cup, but this weekend features some major events, including one regarded as a key stallion-making event. Good betting opportunities abound at both Caulfield and Rosehill.

Caulfield, Race 7, 12:50 a.m. ET: Might And Power (G1), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), three-year-olds and up

• $2 superfecta: 6 with 1 with all with all ($24) 

Just six runners here, but two are out of the top drawer. On most days, Underwood (G1) winner #1 Birdman (9-5) would be favorite. Interestingly, he was seen as a stayer in Europe, having run third in the 1-3/4 mile Queen’s Vase (G2) at Royal Ascot; he was initially tried as a stayer in Australia, but his best form has been since he was targeted at around 1 1/4 miles; since then, he’s won the Underwood and the Doomben Cup (G1). He’s currently the 5-1 third favorite in local markets for the $4.17 million Cox Plate (G1) in two weeks.

Part of the reason he’s at such short odds for that race is that he won’t have to face the superstar mare #6 Sheza Alibi (1-2). After two easy Group 1 victories last autumn, she found Autumn Glow too sharp at seven furlongs in the Winx (G1) but then easily won the one-mile Makybe Diva (G1) Sept 12. Fortunately for Cox Plate contenders, she’s being aimed at the 7-1/2 furlong, $6.95 million Golden Eagle (G1) for four-year-olds a week later.

The only doubt around Sheza Alibi here is whether she can stay 1 1/4 miles, which she is taking on for the first time. Her pedigree is interesting; there’s a lot of speed on her female side, and her sire Saxon Warrior was best at a mile, but he is by Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare and has produced some horses capable at 1 1/4 miles. Her racing style also suggests she should handle the journey, and if she does, it’s hard to see her beaten.

The best betting option here is probably a superfecta with Sheza Alibi and Birdman on top.

Rosehill, Race 7, 1:10 a.m. Saturday ET: Hill Stakes (G2), 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles), three-year-olds and up

• $10 win/$30 show: #1 Lindermann ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1,3,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 ($16)

Sydney racing authorities have poured a lot of money into this, to the extent that at $1.39 million, this Group 2 race is twice the value of the Group 1 Might And Power, run at around the same distance at Caulfield on the same day. Despite the money, it still lacks the star quality the Might And Power possesses.

This was won last year by #1 Lindermann (9-5) from #3 Attrition (34-1), and there’s every reason to believe they’ll both be prominent again. Lindermann was disappointing in the Underwood (G1), where Attrition finished third, but he should bounce back in Sydney. Both should run well.

The best chance outside them looks to be #6 Zambardo (15-2), who has run two good races this preparation. At their best, #4 Militarize (15-1) and #5 Kovalica (22-1) can make it to the exotics, as can #2 Eliyass (3-1).

Despite the last-start failure, Lindermann looks like the best prospect if he gets back to the form that saw him win the Chelmsford (G2) two starts ago.

Caulfield, Race 8, 1:30 a.m. ET: Caulfield Guineas (G1), 1,600 meters (about one mile), three-year-olds

• $10 win/30 show: #5 Blind Raise ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 2,5 with 2,4,5 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11 ($24)

This $2.09 million mile is known as an important stallion-making race in Australia, having been won by luminaries such as Redoute’s Choice, Lonhro, Starspangledbanner, and The Autumn Sun. But there’s every chance the potential stallions may be denied by a gelding here.

#5 Blind Raise (5-2) has been the best male three-year-old around this trip in Melbourne in spring. He won the 6-1/2 furlong Listed McKenzie on resuming from #9 Wolf Gap (22-1), with #3 Tornado Valley (29-1) fourth, and came out two weeks later for an even more decisive victory in the seven-furlong Guineas Prelude (G3), with Wolf Gap and Tornado Valley reversing their placings.

Now, he has to face the best from Sydney – especially in the form of #2 Warwoven (6-5). This colt has already won an important stallion-making race, taking out the seven-furlong Golden Rose (G1) two weeks ago in devastating fashion. He’s currently the market leader, but he is racing anti-clockwise for the first time, and there may be some doubt about his stamina: though his dam was a Group 2 winner at 1 1/4 miles, his first-season sire Sword of State was a six-furlong speedster through and through.

The only other horse remotely in the market is #4 Tron Bolt (4-1); he won the one-mile JJ Atkins (G1) in Brisbane as a two-year-old and ran on reasonably for fifth in the Golden Rose. He should appreciate the step up to a mile.

Of the others, #7 Central Europe (17-1), like Tron Bolt from the Chris Waller team, faded after leading in the Golden Rose but is probably better than that, and it’s interesting that James McDonald is riding him rather than Tron Bolt. #11 Call Me Coach (22-1) is unbeaten in two starts, but this is a huge rise in class, and Stutt (G2) winner #6 Diameter (22-1) has place claims.

It would be a surprise if one of the two favorites doesn't win, and as Blind Raise’s pedigree (he’s by a 1-1/4 mile Group 1 winner) is more stamina-oriented, I’m in his camp.

Rosehill, Race 8, 1:50 a.m. ET: Alan Brown (G3), 1,400 meters (about seven furlongs), three-year-olds and up

• $10 win/$30 show: #2 Headley Grange ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 2, 5 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,11 ($16) 

Another big-money Sydney event ($1.04 million), this relatively new handicap is a great betting race, but it could easily go the way it went last year, when #2 Headley Grange (9-1) narrowly ran down #1 Gringotts (52-1). Both are multi-million-dollar earners that have won at Group 1 level, and they have proved they can carry big weights, which they have to do here.

Headley Grange is a little worse off at the weights this year, but he is something of a specialist seven-furlong horse, whereas Gringotts is likely to be better suited over a mile in a couple of weeks in the Big Dance, which he’s won twice.

Melbourne raider #5 Sepals (13-1) should be strongly considered. He also loves seven furlongs, at which he finished second in the Stradbroke (G1) and in the Rupert Clarke (G1) at his last two starts. He’s not as badly off at the weights as he could be.

Also worth looking at down in the weights is #11 Linebacker (13-1); he put in a nice run for fourth when resuming and is at a reasonably dangerous position at the weights. #3 Private Eye (12-1) and #4 General Salute (26-1) are ones to include for exotics.

There are a lot of chances, but Headley Grange is a proven weight-carrier and loves this distance, so I’m sticking with him.

Caulfield, Race 9, 2:10 a.m. ET: Toorak (G1), 1,600 meters (about one mile), three-year-olds and up

• $10 win/$20 show: #13 Changing Colours
• $1 trifecta: 4,13 with 4,6,13 with 1,2,3,4,6,13 ($16) 

A mile race with plenty of history, the Toorak runs under handicap conditions and looks a great betting race. If you strike this one correctly, you’ll probably do very well.

The key prep for this race was the seven-furlong Rupert Clarke (G1). The first two home aren’t running, but the next seven home are, plus one other. Third that day was #6 Regal Award (17-2); though he has mostly run over seven furlongs, he does have a win and a second placing from two starts at a mile. With a nice barrier, he has to be a good chance.

Multiple Group 1 winner #2 Lady Shenandoah (6-1) was just behind Regal Award, though she hasn’t won since she was three and has an annoying habit of placing without winning. Just behind them were #4 Feroce (13-1), #3 Warnie (17-1), #5 Von Hauke (11-1), #9 Sun God (13-1), and #1 Evaporate (4-1). The last-named disappointed a little but returned home lame and could go better here, especially with a kinder barrier.

Of the non-Rupert Clarke runners, the most interesting is the mare #13 Changing Colours (5-1), who is shooting for her fourth win in a row after winning the Stocks (G2) against her own sex. Down at the bottom of the weights, she’s a big chance.

I have a feeling Feroce will be the best-suited to the extra furlong here, but at the weights I’m going to go with Changing Colors.