Australia Preview for October 24, 2026
Randwick Racecourse in Australia (Courtesy of Sky Racing World)
While North America gets ready for the Breeders’ Cup, the closest Australian race to the Breeders’ Cup Classic is set to run this weekend, seven days before the Classic. If you ever wonder why Australian horses don’t target either the Classic – or for that matter the Mile or the Turf – then the Cox Plate (G1) provides $4.2 million worth of reasons why.
The 1 1/4 mile Cox Plate has lost a little of its luster in recent years due to the big money available in Sydney – not so much last week’s Everest, which attracts different horses, but more the $7 million Golden Eagle (G1) over 7 1/2 furlongs next week for four-year-olds. At least one potential Cox Plate contender – Sheza Alibi – would probably have been running here were it not for the Golden Eagle.
The Cox Plate highlights the weekend, but there is another Group 1 in Sydney and several top races below that. Here are some suggestions for them.
Randwick, Race 7, 1.00am ET
Spring Champion (G1), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), $1.31 million, three-year-olds
With the two best three-year-old males in the country going for a richer target today, the Spring Champion looks like it has a very good chance of being fought out by the two fillies in the race.
#8 Global Goal took out the one-mile Flight (G1) for fillies at her last start with a strong late rally. She looked like she would enjoy the step up in trip here, but given that she’s by Pinatubo from the family of Redoute’s Choice and Manhattan Rain, her pedigree doesn’t scream out 1 1/4 miles. She may well get it, but it’s a little bit of a risk.
The other filly, #9 Proxima Dea, looks better suited by this journey. She’s by the stamina influence Tarzino, and though her dam is by Redoute’s Choice, her second dam is another strong stamina influence in Caerleon. Unbeaten in four starts, Proxima Dea took on the boys in the Gloaming (G2) over 1 1/8 miles Oct. 10 and narrowly beat #4 Wonka, #3 Scarole, #2 Cormier, #5 Stormy Marco, and #6 Persian Wonder.
Proxima Dea needed the whole stretch to win the Gloaming but may well enjoy the extra furlong here so I’m supporting her, but this could go many ways.
Flemington, Race 7, 1.20am ET
Moonee Valley Cup (G2), 2,500 meters (about 1 9/16 miles), $526,000, four-year-olds and up
- $10 win/$30 show: #18 Kizlyar ($40)
- $1 trifecta: 12, 18 with 3, 12, 18 with 2, 3, 7, 11, 12, 14, 18 ($20)
For many horses, this will be a last chance to earn a run in the $7 million Melbourne Cup (G1) Nov. 3. Only #7 Mr Monaco and #16 Strictly Business are assured a run in the big race, and given that the winner is liable for a rehandicap, these two may be more likely to be using this as a warmup rather than a must-win. Most of the others will need to win to earn their place in the cup.
The first two home in the Metropolitan (G2) at Randwick, #2 Juja Kibo and #12 Aethelwulf, are both solid chances again. Aethelwulf is two pounds better off here and may also have been disadvantaged by running on the rail in the Metropolitan. Another recent Sydney runner with a solid chance is #11 King Pedro. He resumed over 1 3/16 miles at weight-for-age in the Hill (G2) and finished fourth; he should be improved by the run.
Melbourne form is most strongly represented by #3 Pinhole, winner of the Herbert Power (G2) last start. He seems to be improving and has the Waller-McDonald team behind him, so looks a strong chance again. There’s even some New Zealand interest here in the form of Wellington Cup (G3) winner #14 Manzor Blue; she loves a staying trip and could get some of it.
However, they may all fall to Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien’s raider #18 Kizlyar. Scratches have ensured he makes the field, and he brings some very good form into the race. He won the 2-1/2 mile Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot over Defiantly, the current Melbourn Cup favorite after winning the Prix Kergolay (G2) at his next start. Kizlyar has run just once since, finishing second in the Irish St Leger Trial (G3), and that looks like very good form for this.
Randwick, Race 8, 1.45am ET
The Invitation (G2), 1,400 meters (about 7 furlongs), $1.31 million, fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up
- $10 win/$30 show: #9 Gerringong ($40)
- $1 trifecta: 1, 9 with 1, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11 ($20)
Created in 2021, this has already become the richest race for fillies and mares in Australia. However, it has to compete for top mares with the Empire Rose (G1) over a mile at Flemington next week, so the field is good but not great.
Heading the market in Australia is #1 Lazzura, winner of the Coolmore Classic (G1) in autumn. She’s come back well, winning the Gold Pendant (G2) Sept. 26 over #3 Verona Rose and #12 Modella. It was a comprehensive victory, and she meets the two she beat on better terms at the weights, so it’s hard to see them overturning the result.
More likely to pose a challenge to Lazzura is last year’s runner-up #9 Gerringong. She scored a brave win first-up in the 6-furlong Nivison (G2) Oct. 10 from #11 Arabian Rose, with #8 Tuileries a close fourth. Gerringong is worse off at the weights compared to both of them, but she ran like she needed seven furlongs and should be improved for the effort.
The problem horses in the race are #2 Idle Flyer and #10 Perfumist. Both tackled the boys last start in the Epsom (G1) and were well down the track in a hot field. Both had been in reasonable form beforehand, and have proven themselves in fillies and mares company, Idle Flyer in particular – though she may be better suited at a mile, whereas seven furlongs is probably Perfumist’s best trip
It’s not the easiest to assess, but I’m going to support Gerringong from her good midfield draw.
Flemington, Race 8, 2.10am ET
WS Cox Plate (G1), 2,040 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), $4.2 million, three-year-olds and up
- $10 win/$30 show: #1 Ceolwulf ($40)
- $1 trifecta: 1, 3, 11 with 1, 3, 11 with 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 12 ($24)
The Cox Plate looks unusually open this year. Normally there’s obvious strong contenders, like star mares Winx and Via Sistina have been in recent years. But most of the leading horses have had fairly mixed form coming into this. In addition, the race will have a different complexion than usual because its usual venue, the tight Moonee Valley course, is under renovation and it is instead being held at the more roomy Flemington track.
Favorite is #3 Sir Delius, conqueror of Autumn Glow in the Queen Elizabeth (G1) in autumn. If he runs to that form he will probably win this. But he’s yet to win this term; he’s raced twice for two fourth-place finishes, though he may not have enjoyed the wet ground. What may be worth noting is that he was third-up when winning the Queen Elizabeth, and he’s third-up again here.
Sir Delius was beaten last start in the Turnbull (G1) by #5 Cosmic Crusader; if he performs at a similar level he’s a strong chance here. His big question mark is whether he’s recovered from running 1 1/2 miles last week in the Caulfield Cup, where he finished fourth. If he has, he can win.
Behind Cosmic Crusader that day were #2 Light Infantry Man and #10 Aeliana. Light Infantry Man is possibly under-rated but he is the biggest beneficiary of the race being switched to Flemington, where he’s won the last two editions of the 1 1/4-mile Australian Cup (G1). Aeliana is a class mare, and may not have appreciated the wet in the Turnbull.
#7 Land Legend is being given his chance here after his huge 60-1 upset in the Might And Power (G1) over Sheza Alibi. His odds suggest punters don’t think he has much chance of repeating, but he should at least ensure a solid tempo. More strongly fancied out of that race is third-place finisher #6 Birdman, who may be improved for this.
Sydney raider #1 Ceolwulf will be happy that his usual nemesis Autumn Glow is not present here. But he is in great form, runs very well in spring, and has the pedigree to suggest he’d be happy at this trip. He’s also backing up in seven days, but he ran a mile last week as compared to Cosmic Crusader’s 1 1/2 miles, which should make the transition easier. He looks a great chance.
Adding to the interest are two very good three-year-olds. #11 Warwoven and #12 Blind Raise were first and second in the Caulfield Guineas, and both look very good. In what doesn’t look like the strongest Cox Plate, many will fancy their chances, though history says three-year-olds need to be exceptional to win this race.
It’s a very interesting race with a lot of variables, but I’m going with Ceolwulf to win at potentially reasonable odds.
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