Belmont Spot Plays for May 11, 2019

Race 2 at Belmont Park on Saturday kicks off an early Pick 4. Leg 1 is a maiden special weight dirt race going one mile for three-year-olds. Todd Pletcher looks strong in here with PRINCIPLED (#6) (5-2), a son of Medaglia d’Oro who was a good third in his career debut last August at Saratoga when he battled for the lead before weakening. Off for 266 days, he returns with Johnny Velazquez – 32 percent with his route mounts. I will single him. Leg 2 is a first-level allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the inner turf course. Fifteen entered, four are main-track-only and there is one entry so a field of 10 pari-mutuel betting interests are expected to go. Last month, SCIENCE FICTION (#10) (6-1) missed the break in a six-furlong turf sprint at Aqueduct and was forced to chase wide. She usually shows high speed away from the gate and if she breaks well, she should be in this a long way. JIMI BAGS (#9) (7-2) rallied from off the pace to get second behind the top choice and should improve some second start off a short layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount. DANCE TILL DAWN (#1A) (6-1) won going five furlongs in February at Gulfstream Park and just missed going a short two turns. Leg 3 is the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. INTREPID HEART (#1) 7-5) cost $750,000 as a two-year-old in training last year and broke his maiden by a pole at Oaklawn Park as the odds-on favorite in February. He came back and rallied from just off the pace to beat allowance foes at Keeneland and now tries graded company off a series of good workouts here. The son of Tapit is a half-brother to two graded winners, including Commissioner who just missed winning the 2014 Belmont Stakes (G1) by a head. GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (#3) (8-5) romped in his first two career starts then ran evenly in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) when he attended a very fast pace. The son of Curlin is a half-brother to two-time Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro. Leg 4 is a maiden $40,000 claimer going 1 1/16 miles on the Widener turf course. QUALITY CHOICE (#3) (12-1) returns off a 204-day layoff for Michelle Nevin. who wins 16 percent in this spot and gets Johnny Velazquez. Quality Choice missed by a nose two back then raced evenly most recently from post 10. CALAMITY KAT (#1) (6-1) rallied for second two starts back at Gulfstream Park then raced evenly there when moved up in class. RHODE ISLAND (#6) (6-5) has had some strong efforts against better for Shug McGaughey. CRYPTO GOLD (#10) (5-1) added blinkers two back and he only missed by two lengths last out as the odds-on favorite from post 10 going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs. RACE 2 – Pick 4 #6 with #1A, #9, #10 with #1, #3 with #1, #3, #6, #10 Race 8 is one of my favorite handicapping challenges: a maiden special weight on the turf. These fillies and mares are going 1 1/16 miles on the Widener turf course and it wouldn’t be right unless Chad Brown had one in here. STRUCTURAL DEFICIT (#4) (5-1) is a first-time starter from Brown who I don’t really like. She only cost $260,000 as a yearling – the 40th most expensive of 75 yearlings by Scat Daddy that year – and he sent her up to Saratoga early and got two workouts in her despite the bad weather. Just looks like it has been determined that she is second-string and will go against her in here. The early odds on the tote board should tell. VARENKA (#3) (12-1) has caught yielding turf courses the last three starts but ran well each time. She has a big, late kick and is a half-sister to four stakes winners. Javier Castellano rides for Graham Motion. MRS. GOT ROCKS (#10) (10-1) was an even fourth after being shuffled back from post 1 in her career debut then she came back with a good effort behind a modest pace when she ran into traffic when the running got serious. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid is a half-sister to Have at It, who won a Grade 2 turf race at Belmont Park. TIP AT TAPIT (#9) (12-1) did nothing in her career debut but improved a lot next out with blinkers added. James Toner lets his horses develop with time and it looks like he has this daughter of Tapit razor sharp with some fast workouts. Betting strategy will be cold exactas #3 with #9, #10 PHOTO: Intrepid Heart and jockey John Velazquez capture an allowance/optional claimer at Keeneland on April 5, 2019 (c) Coady Photography/Keeneland