2025 Belmont Stakes odds, betting strategy, cheat sheet

Select plays from our writers on Saturday's Belmont Stakes day at Saratoga.

Saturday Racing

Woody Stephens Stakes exactas:

• With Chancer McPatrick bet $5 exacta 10 with 2,3,7,9 ($20)
• Against Chancer McPatrick bet $2 exacta box 2,3,7,9 ($24)
• Read the full analysis for two trifecta plays by John Mucciolo here.

Wagering Weather Update:

Here are some key horses to consider given today's sloppy track conditions

• Metropolitan Handicap (Race 8):
  1. Fierceness (1/1) - Current favorite has shown strong early speed and handles wet tracks well
  2. Just a Touch (4-1) - Has early speed which is advantageous on a sloppy track and showed a sharp recent workout
  3. White Abarrio (9/5) - Gray/Roan horse has historically performed well on wet tracks
   
• Belmont Stakes (Race 13):
  1. Journalism (6/5) - The favorite has the highest speed ratings and a recent sharp workout
  2. Sovereignty (7/2) - Won the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy track, proving wet-track ability
  3. Rodriguez (7-1) - Shows good early speed which could be advantageous in these conditions
   
• For the off-turf races (3,6,10,14):
  - Look for program scratches as these races move to dirt
  - Pay attention to "MTO" (Main Track Only) entries who will now get to run
  - Focus on horses with proven dirt form
   
• Additional Betting Strategy:
  1. Consider playing speed horses on the sloppy track
  2. Watch the betting pools for late money moves that might indicate confidence in wet-track performers
  3. Be cautious with deep closers as the sloppy track often favors front-runners
  4. Consider using multiple horses in exotic bets as sloppy tracks can produce unpredictable results
  Remember to check for late scratches and surface changes before placing your bets, as track conditions may affect the final field.

Belmont Stakes

There have been 118 editions of the Belmont since the race moved to its primary home of Belmont Park in 1905. At first glance, it might appear post 1 offers a distinct advantage since it’s yielded the most winners (24) and the highest win percentage (20.3%) of any gate position.

With this in mind, the win percentages for post 11 (10.7%), post 12 (9.1%), and post 13 (14.3%) are quite respectable.

But looking at the Travers Stakes for clues at the new venue of Saratoga and same race distance, the stats suggest posts 4 through 7 are most favorable when three-year-olds race 1 1/4 miles over the Saratoga dirt. Indeed, that was the case in the 2024 Belmont, as the victorious Dornoch posted a 17-1 upset after breaking from post 6.

Read the full post position analysis by Keeler Johnson here.

Let’s review the last two Brisnet Speed ratings for the 2025 Belmont field (listed by top last-out number).

Journalism registered a 107 Brisnet Speed rating, the top last-out number in the Belmont field, and nearly paired up his career-best figure, a 108 in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s earned triple-digit Speed ratings in the last four starts, and triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace numbers in five of the last six, and Journalism rates as the one to beat based upon numbers.

Sovereignty had been on the verge of the triple-digit threshold, netting a 99 figure for his game win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) three starts previously, but the Kentucky Derby marked the first time he reached the century mark, netting a 103 figure that was nine points better than his runner-up effort in the Florida Derby (G1) two back. He had shown an affinity for Churchill, earning his first stakes win when romping by five lengths in the Street Sense (G3) last fall, and finished fourth in his career debut when making his lone appearance at Saratoga last August. However, Sovereignty was still a raw prospect at that stage – he’s progressed nicely this season for his Hall of Fame trainer and appears to be still improving.

Belmont Stakes longshot to bet:

Hill Road, by Quality Road, overcame a troubled break to earn his initial graded tally at Aqueduct in his second attempt off the shelf and could peak while running third time off the break on Saturday. I believe that he will be fully fit for the test, and drawing the rail on the move to 1 1/4 miles seems ideal for him, too. Trainer Chad Brown has won six of the last seven training titles at The Spa, while jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has won three straight jockey trophies, and six in total, at the majestic venue.

What I see in the Kentucky-bred is an improving horse who is bred to love the distance, a sophomore with positive recent works, and also an advantageous draw on the fence. Combine that with his human connections that have dominated the racing at this locale in recent years, and the up-and-coming colt checks a lot of boxes.